Looking Ahead To Atlanta - College Basketball News

Looking Ahead To Atlanta
By Jim Johnson
Posted: 7:00 am PDT 2006-09-06

When college basketball teams assemble for their first official practices on Oct. 13, there will be more than 300 schools dreaming of spending the first weekend of April 2007 in Atlanta participating in the Final Four. For most of those teams, the odds of that happening are very, very long. Here are my picks for the schools that will be the favorites to cut down the nets in the Georgia Dome.

Florida: There was a lot of concern in Gainesville this time last year because Coach Billy Donovan's Gators had lost their top three scorers from the previous season. As we know, things turned out pretty well for Florida, and the Gators will face a much different challenge this season -- staying hungry and focused after winning the national championship.

To the surprise of most experts, the Gators' starting lineup returns. Center Joakim Noah and forward Al Horford turned down overtures from the NBA, deciding to come back to defend the title and delay cashing on their success. Donovan bought into that idea himself, delaying signing a contract extension with a lucrative salary increase until after this upcoming season.

This will again be one of the more balanced teams in the nation. All five Florida starters scored in double figures last season, and UF's bench will be bolstered by a strong recruiting class. Last season, it was a shock the Gators reached the Final Four. This season, it will be a shock if they don't.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels also bring back the heart of a team that greatly exceeded expectations last season. They are anchored by one of the best players in the nation, forward Tyler Hansbrough, and buoyed by one of the great recruiting classes of recent years. As well as Reyshawn Terry and Bobby Frasor performed last season, they will be challenged for playing time by super freshmen Tywon Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Brandan Wright, all who were ranked as the best high school player in the nation at their position by at least one recruiting service.

So how good are the Tar Heels? They could be more talented and deeper than the 2004-05 squad, and all that team did was win the national championship. Coach Roy Williams will face a challenge in developing chemistry among so many quality players and getting some of them to accept support roles, but any coach would love to face the problems that come with having so much talent.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have all five starters returning and display balanced scoring -- are you picking up a trend here? Brandon Rush is a star in the making whose biggest problem is being too unselfish. Despite the Jayhawks' inexperience, this is still a young team with a lot of room to improve, a scary thought for the defending Big 12 champions. Over the final 15 games last season, Coach Bill Self started three freshmen and two sophomores.

The return of Rush and Julian Wright, who both spurned the NBA for at least another year, puts the Jayhawks in position to challenge for the national title. Incoming freshman Darrell Arthur, a McDonald's All-American last season, will work his way into the rotation and give the Jayhawks another dangerous weapon.

I believe these three teams are the nation's elite. There are several other teams that are only a notch behind and have an excellent chance of filling out the Final Four.

Ohio State would join the top three teams if wunderkind center Greg Oden was healthy. It remains unclear when he will be 100 percent and how long it will take him to get into playing shape and fit into the flow of the team. Two other McDonald's AA's, Mike Conley and Daequan Cook, will make the Buckeyes a threat in the Big Ten even without Oden for a while.

The Big East will take a step back this year, but Pittsburgh will take a step forward thanks to the return of center Aaron Gray. Coach Jamie Dixon has a team loaded with seniors and juniors but needs someone to step up and take ownership of the point guard position for this team to reach its potential.

UCLA lost three starters from last season's national runner-up but is loaded with talent. Guard Aaron Afflalo is one of the best players in the Pac-10, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (a name that just rolls off the tongue) was the 2005-06 Pac-10 freshman of the year. Sophomores Darren Collison and Josh Shipp will need to grow into their expanded roles for the Bruins to return to the Final Four.

Of course, if we learned anything from last year's big dance, it's that some teams will let us down and others will surprise us. That's why college basketball is so much fun to watch.

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