Early Gauges - College Basketball News, Tips And Picks

Early Gauges
By Jim Johnson
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2006-11-23

Let's face it, in college basketball the odds of an NCAA Tournament bid hinging on the outcome of a game in November is pretty slim. What these games can do, for both the coaches and fans, is serve as a gauge of where their team stands in comparison to other good teams and what they need to improve before the all-important conference games begin in January. Here are some games coming up in the next few days that should serve this purpose for both teams.

Florida vs. Kansas, Saturday, at Las Vegas Invitational: The Jayhawks have already been taken down a peg with their surprising home loss to Oral Roberts, but this will still be the first marquee game of the season. Nearly all the experts had these two schools in their top three in the preseason rankings, and deservedly so.

Florida has picked up right where it left off last season when it won the NCAA championship. The Gators have not been challenged in their first five games. They are shooting 57% as a team, Joakim Noah and Al Horford are controlling the boards, Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey are stroking threes, and Corey Brewer is making life miserable for opposing guards.

The biggest test for Kansas matching up in this game will be how its young front line does against Florida's veterans. Coach Bill Self is missing suspended center C.J. Giles and injured center Sasha Kaun, so the onus will be on sophomore Julian Wright and junior Darnell Jackson to stand up to Noah and Horoford. They have the size (Wright is 6-foot-8, 225 pounds, while Jackson is 6-8, 250), but I see the Jayhawks being dominated by the Gators¢ superior athleticism.

The Gators, who will be favored in this game at WagerWeb.com, will leave Las Vegas still cruising on their road to repeating, while Kansas will need to look under the hood and do some tinkering.

Florida State at Pittsburgh, Friday: The Big East favorite Panthers roll into this game with a 5-0 record and their defense smothering opponents. So far, Pitt has only allowed 58.4 points per game, with a high of 68 to UMass, and has won every game by a double-digit margin. Center Aaron Gray has been a double-double machine, and sophomore point guard Levance Fields is settling in as Carl Krauser's replacement, averaging nearly seven assists per game.

Florida State has posted even better defensive numbers on the way to a 4-0 record, allowing only 56 points per game. Forward Al Thornton is averaging more than 17 points per game, but with nine players averaging more than 10 minutes per game for Coach Leonard Hamilton, no other players have really asserted themselves yet.

This will be the first indication of whether the Seminoles are ready to challenge the upper echelon of the ACC. In particular, it will be the first look at transfer guard Toney Douglas to see if he can handle the type of pressure the Panthers will surely throw at him. Gray and Thornton should both thrive in this game, but I like the Panthers to force FSU out of its comfort zone enough to come away with the win. The 'Noles will still have some growing to do, and they have games with Wisconsin and Florida coming up next, so they'll need to do it in a hurry.

Wichita State at LSU, Saturday: This will be LSU's first serious contest of the season after two blowout wins by a combined 85 points. The returning starters have all looked good, and Tack Minor has distributed the ball well in limited playing time.

The Shockers also come in undefeated, although they struggled getting by Chicago State and George Mason. They've also gone deep into their bench and have four players scoring in double figures. The big question about Wichita State is who will be its go-to guy in crunch time. The two most likely candidates are junior guard Sean Ogirri (14.3 ppg.) and junior swingman PJ Couisnard (11.3 ppg.)

The Shockers have four returning starters and shouldn't be intimidated by the atmosphere at the Maravich Center. I think they will give the Tigers a good game, but ultimately LSU is too athletic for Wichita State to stay with for 40 minutes.

Nothing But Net
The O. J. Mayo recruiting derby mercifully ended this past week when he signed a letter-of-intent to play at Southern California. Mayo is the consensus top high school player in the nation, a 6-5 guard with great athleticism and no obvious holes in his game. Mayo has played varsity high school since the seventh grade and has been on the national recruiting radar since the ninth grade.

Mayo is the best of an outstanding recruiting class that Trojans coach Tim Floyd has signed. Expect USC to make a lot of noise in the Pac-10 next season.

Have you seen freshman forward Kevin Durant of Texas yet? If not, make a point of doing so. He has already staked a claim to being the best freshman in the nation not named Greg Oden. Durant has scored at least 20 points in each of his first four collegiate games and is averaging 22.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.25 blocked shots per contest.

Durant has freakish athleticism and excellent basketball skills. He's too content to settle for three-pointers (he is 11-23 so far, though, so it's not like he can't shoot) because there probably aren't too many college players he can't beat off the dribble. It will be interesting to see how his game holds up in December when the Longhorns play Gonzaga, LSU and Arkansas. All of those teams have players who have a chance of matching up with Durant, so we'll see how he handles that situation.

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