What Is An Upset? - College Basketball News, Tips And Picks

What Is An Upset?
By Jim Johnson
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2006-11-28

The odds are, if you been paying attention to college basketball this season, that you've heard the term "upset" already thrown around quite a bit by newscasters and "experts."I believe that, along with the word great, upset will be one of the most overused words we will hear this season.

That, then, begs the question: What really is an upset anymore? Let's run through a few recent results:

Gonzaga beating North Carolina 82-74 in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden -- not an upset. The Zags were ranked No. 23 in the coaches' poll and over the years have shown they can play with the big boys.

Butler defeating Gonzaga 79-71 for the NIT championship two days later -- upset. The Bulldogs was picked to finish sixth in the Horizon League, and any team in that league would be an underdog to the Zags, even at home. It remains to be seen if Butler will keep playing at this level. If the Bulldogs do, they will dominate their league and assure themselves of at least an at-large NCAA bid.

Virginia winning a 93-90 come-from-behind game against visiting Arizona -- not an upset. The Cavaliers should be at least be a middle-of-the-pack team in the ACC, which makes them a serious threat against any team in the nation, especially on their home court.

Oral Roberts' 78-71 win at Kansas -- upset. The Golden Eagles had lost their opener to Loyola-Marymount and squeaked by Louisiana-Lafayette in their next game. Oral Roberts got the hot three-point shooting it needed to knock off an unsuspecting Jayhawks squad, which then turned around and knocked off No. 1 Florida (not an upset).

So what does this mean? The gap between the mid-majors and the big boys is smaller than ever. If something is happening every day, it's not an upset, it's more like the norm. True upsets are going to occur when the little guys go on the road and post victories, or when mid-majors like Butler come up and bite ranked teams. We won't see that often, but that's the point. It will continue to happen this season, though, and that's the fun (and risk) of trying to pick and bet these games.

There are two games I'll be watching closely this Saturday:

Kentucky at North Carolina: Gonzaga showed the nation the blueprint of how to defeat the Tar Heels this season -- shut down All-American Tyler Hansbrough and discourage him so he is not active. This puts pressure on North Carolina's perimeter game, which is not the Heels' strength. Knowing what to do is one thing, but as Tennessee found out against UNC two days later, executing the plan can be a tad more difficult.

Kentucky, led by forward Randolph Morris, has the size to give Hansbrough trouble, but the Wildcats are not particularly athletic and will have to slow the pace. They will also need guards Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley to knock down their threes in order to have a shot at the Heels, who will be favored on WagerWeb.com.

I think Brandan Wright will have a big game for Carolina and be the difference in leading it to victory.

Georgetown at Duke: This could be an ugly game because both teams play intense defense and are rough around the edge on offense.

Georgetown has not played anywhere near expectations so far, losing at home to Old Dominion and posting unimpressive victories in its other games to date, so Duke will be favored. Roy Hibbert has been strong inside (15 ppg., 6.8 rpg.) and guard Jonathan Wallace has been deadly from three-point range, but no one else has distinguished themselves for the Hoyas, who are in action Monday night against Ball State and are 16-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Duke, meanwhile, has been exceptional on defense, holding opponents to 48.4 points in its five victories. The Blue Devils are going to have trouble against explosive, athletic guards like Marquette's Dominic James as we saw in the Blue Devils' only loss so far this season. Georgetown doesn't have a player like that (few teams do), and I like Duke to win at home.

Nothing But Net

Here's a team I'm looking forward to seeing -- Texas A&M. Coach Billy Gillispie's squad earned an NCAA bid last season on the strength of its suffocating defense, and the Aggies look even tougher on that end of the court this year. A&M did not yield more than 60 points in its first five games, all wins. The Aggies have allowed only 49 points per game, including an amazing 33 against St. Louis. You want more numbers? How about 28.4% shooting allowed, 26.9% from three-point range.

A&M will be tested against LSU and UCLA (first one to 50 points wins?) in a few days, and I'll have more to say about those games in my next column.

Speaking of LSU, I'm just not feeling the Tigers yet. Glen (not as Big Baby) Davis has looked sharp so far, but this is a team that I felt won more because of its overwhelming athleticism than its basketball skills, chemistry and, to put it bluntly, coaching. The Tigers are not quite as athletic this season, so they will have to make up for it in the other areas. I'm not confident they will, and their 57-53 home loss to Wichita State didn't help.

If I voted for the Top 25, my No. 1 vote this week would be for UCLA. The Bruins are playing the best basketball of any team I've seen up to this point. Their defense is at least as good as last season, and it looks like they've improved on the offensive end.

After their win over Georgia Tech to capture the Maui Invitational, Bruins coach Ben Howland told the AP: "I'm just so excited about how we're playing right now this early in the season."

You just never hear a coach say that, especially that early in the season, and it should make the blood of UCLA's opponents run cold.

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