Big 12 Preview - College Football News

Big 12 Preview
By Jeff Zell
Posted: 4:30 am PDT 2006-07-07

Will the national champion come from the Big 12 for the second consecutive year. Odds are against it, but if so look for the two usual suspects.

Big 12 Predicted Order of Finish

1. Oklahoma: (2005: 8-4, 6-2)
Coach: Bob Stoops
Key Players Lost:  Dusty Dvoracek (DT), Clint Ingram (LB)
2006 Key Players: Adrian Peterson (RB), Rhett Bomar (QB), Rufus Alexander (LB)
Key Games: @ Ore (9/16), vs. TX (10/7), @ Texas A&M (11/04)

Summary: The Sooners welcome back their leading passer (Bomar), rusher (Peterson), receiver (Malcolm Kelly), tackler (Alexander) and sacker (Calvin Thibodeaux) from a season ago that saw 20 first-year players see action. Bomar should have the tools to excel with preseason Heisman favorite Peterson looking to be 100 percent along with three experienced wideouts returning. On defense, Alexander, Thibodeaux along with 2005 Big 12 defensive newcomer of the year C.J. Ah You (DE) should stop most opponents' running attack. Cornerback D.J. Wolfe and safety convert Reggie Smith (CB) look to man the secondary.

Prediction (12-0): Peterson's nickname is AD, meaning "all-day". I'm going to add an E' and an S' onto the end of that nickname to stand for "All-Day-Every-Saturday." Peterson will be instrumental in taking pressure off of Bomar, ultimately allowing him to throw to single coverage downfield. The defense has a year of experience under its belt from when it ranked No. 4 against the rush and No. 13 in total yards. The rematch of the 2005 Holiday Bowl in Week 3 will be a good indicator of how good this team is. It's a good wager to see OU in a BCS game this year.

2. Texas: (2005: 13-0, 8-0)
Coach: Mack Brown
Key Players Lost: Vince Young (QB), Michael Huff (CB), Aaron Harris (LB)
2006 Key Players: Jamaal Charles (RB), Frank Okam (DT), Michael Griffin (S)
Key Games: @OSU (9/9), vs. OU (10/7), @ Nebraska (10/21)

Summary: The Longhorns look to defend their national title in 2006 with a quarterback controversy the size of Texas and thus the odds are against them. Neither quarterback battling for the starting job -- Colt McCoy or Jevan Snead -- has taken a collegiate snap. The success for the Longhorns will rely heavily on running back Charles, who will see the brunt of the carries after Ramonce Taylor was dismissed from the team in the spring. Texas returns receivers Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman and welcomes a sure-handed freak athlete in redshirt freshman TE Jermichael Finley. Texas lost three of their starting five on the offensive line but welcomes back senior Justin Blalock, who will anchor the boys up front. The Longhorns have four defensive players on the Bednarik Award (best defensive player) watch list -- Okam, Tim Crowder (DE), Griffin (S), Brian Robison (DE) -- and look to be one of the strongest units in the country. A big question will be finding replacement for the two senior DBs who are now in the NFL.

Prediction (10-2): Much of Mack Brown's season rides on the showdown on Sept. 9 against Ohio State. If Texas can come out of that game alive, it should breed confidence for whichever QB wins the job. Two tough road games against Nebraska and Texas Tech and the annual Red River Shootout should prevent the Longhorns from repeating as national champions. However, if Texas can gain a lead in any certain game, it will be able to control the clock with one of the best running games in the nation.

3. Nebraska: (2005: 8-4, 4-4)
Coach: Bill Callahan
Key Players Lost: Cory Ross (RB), Daniel Bullocks (S)
2006 Key Players: Zac Taylor (QB), Adam Carriker (DE), Matt Herian (TE)
Key Games: @ USC (9/16), vs. UT (10/21)

Summary: The Cornhuskers return 15 starters (eight offense, seven defense), including senior quarterback and Maxwell Award candidate Zac Taylor who set Nebraska's single-season record for passing yards (2,486), completions (233) and attempts (399) in 2005. Taylor will utilize Callahan's West Coast offense with receivers Terrence Nunn and Nate Swift, who combined for 88 receptions, 1,136 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. Running backs Cody Glenn and Marlon Lucky looked good in spring practice running behind Outland and Rimington candidate Kurt Mann and will look to revitalize a Nebraska running game that averaged just 2.7 yards-per-carry. Herian looks to be a threat in 2006 after his recovery from a fractured leg that occurred in 2004. The Huskers return a defense that led the NCAA in sacks (50) in 2005. Both DEs, Carriker and Barry Turner, return with a combined 15.5 sacks between them. Three linebackers have recovered from season-ending injuries a year ago, and with Corey McKeon look to be one of the best units in the nation.

Prediction (9-3): Taylor felt more comfortable in the pocket at the end of last season with the Huskers holding onto a 32-28 victory over Michigan in the Alamo Bowl. Callahan travels to USC early in the season and could look to give USC its first regular season loss since 2003. Two tough roadies with Iowa State and Texas A&M followed with a home game against UT will determine the season. Nebraska is a good bet to win the Big 12 North and play for a shot at a BCS title game.

4. Texas A&M: (2005: 5-6, 3-5)
Coach: Dennis Franchione
Key Players Lost: Reggie McNeil (QB), Jaxson Appel (DB)
2006 Key Players: Stephen McGee (QB), Red Bryant (DT), Justin Warren (LB)
Key Games: vs. OU (11/4), vs. Neb (11/11), @ Texas (11/24)

Summary: The Aggies finally have a leader at quarterback in McGee. He had a breakout game in their final contest against Texas when he rushed for 108 yards. His supporting cast includes a quality trio of healthy receivers, four offensive linemen returning and running backs Courtney Lewis -- provided he meets academic requirements -- and Jorvorskie Lane. The Aggies have a new defensive coordinator, Gary Darnell, whose defensive schemes can only improve the nation's worst passing defense (304.6 yards per game). Bryant and Warren are expected to make significant impacts at the defensive tackle and linebacker positions, respectively.

Prediction (8-4): The defense can only improve, and the offense will get much-needed leadership with McGee under center. The Aggies road schedule is as follows: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas. If Franchione can use the "12th man" and win a tough home game against Texas Tech on Sept. 30, the Aggies could realistically be undefeated into November. I don't mean to get the Aggies faithful excited, but this season could shock the nation.

5. Texas Tech: (2005: 8-4, 4-4)
Coach: Mike Leach
Key Players Lost: Taurean Henderson (RB), Cody Hodges (QB)
2006 Key Players: Keyunta Dawson (DE), Joel Filani (WR), Graham Harrell (QB)
Key Games: @ TCU (9/16), vs. UT (10/28), @ OU (11/11)

Summary: For the first time since the Kliff Kingsbury era, Leach will not start a senior or will he name a starter. Harrell, a sophomore, is the favorite for the job but freshman Chris Todd is on his heels. Shannon Woods will be replacing Henderson, but he doesn't compare to the versatility Henderson had. The receivers are exactly what you'd expect from a team that has led the nation four consecutive years in total offense & fantastic. The defense has only four scholarship players ,led by Keyunta Dawson, who is on the Hendricks Award watch list (best defensive end). McKinner Dixon, Tech's other promising DE, has academic issues that need to be solved before he can hit the field.

Prediction (7-5): The Red Raiders are tough at home, having won nine straight at Jones AT&T stadium, their longest streak since 1974. Having a quarterback under center that had not previously taken a snap hasn't been a problem for Leach the last couple of years, but those quarterbacks had versatile running back Henderson. No such luck for Harrell, and he will struggle on the road. The offense will pack a punch like always, and it's almost a lock that the Red Raiders will lead the Big 12 in offense for the seventh straight season.

6. Colorado: (2005: 7-6, 5-3)
Coach: Dan Hawkins
Key Players Lost: Joel Klatt (QB), Joe Klopfenstein (TE)
2006 Key Players: Hugh Charles (RB), Mason Crosby (K), Thaddaeus Washington (LB)
Key Games: @UGA (9/23), @OU (10/21), @Neb (11/24)

Summary: Hawkins, the former Boise State head coach, looks to lead Colorado to its fourth Big 12 North title in the past five years in his first year at the helm. The starting quarterback position is up for grabs, and Hawkins throws in a new offensive system, meaning the learning curve for these quarterbacks will be even greater. Charles is expected to make a tremendous impact and improve on his near 1,000-yard season a year ago. The best offensive player could be kicker Crosby, who has been rumored to be able to kick a 70-yard field goal. The Buffaloes return eight starters on defense from a 2005 defense that led the Big 12 in conference games in rushing defense (82.1). Washington led the team in tackles (112) and will be aided by linebacker Jordan Dizon and four defensive linemen who saw considerable action last year.

Prediction (7-5): New quarterbacks learning a new system with a new coach sounds like a formula for a losing season. Although Hawkins has enjoyed a 53-11 record as a head coach in five seasons, he hasn't played in a tough Big 12 conference with this tough schedule. Charles should have a breakout year, and the offense will make considerable strides over the course of the season. The Buffaloes could possibly compete for the North title all the way up until the final game, but it's a good bet they will fall short at Nebraska on Nov. 24.

7. Iowa State: (2005: 7-5, 4-4)
Coach: Dan McCarney
Key Players Lost: LaMarcus Hicks (DB), Nick Leaders (DL)
2006 Key Players: Bret Meyer (QB), Brent Curvey (DL)
Key Games: vs. Toledo (8/31), @Iowa (9/16), @Texas (9/23)

Summary: The Cyclones return all their offensive starters and are expecting to have one of the more potent offensive attacks in 2006. Meyer has a bountiful of receivers around him with veterans Todd Blythe and Austin Flynn returning. At running back, Stevie Hicks returns for his senior season and looks to remain healthy so he can return to sophomore standout form when he gained over 1,000 yards on the ground. The big question mark for the Cyclones will be stopping the run. Despite returning Outland Trophy watch list member Curvey, the Cyclone defense lost six seniors, sack leader Jason Berryman (who was kicked off the team shortly after the season) and Matt Robertson (kicked off after testing positive for banned substance).. Senior DeAndre Jackson will be the leader in the secondary.

Prediction (6-6): Lots of defensive problems for the Cyclones in 2006.They lost six players due to graduation and then two more for off-field issues. Meyer has all of the weapons he did a year ago when the squad scored 30 points or more in four of the final six games. Improving on a defense that forced 35 turnovers last year and a unit that never allowed more than 27 points will be a near impossible task. McCarney has one of the toughest schedules in the nation, having to travel to Ames, Austin and Norman as well as playing Nebraska and Toledo at home.

8. Missouri: (2005: 7-5, 4-4)
Coach: Gary Pinkel
Key Players Lost: Brad Smith (QB)
2006 Key Players: Chase Daniel (QB), Chase Coffman (TE)
Key Games: vs. CU (9/30), vs. OU (10/28), @ Neb (11/04)

Summary: The Tigers look to replace their dual threat quarterback with a junior, Daniel, who has shown some promise through his first two seasons. He has a stronger arm than Smith did, but his legs surely can't compare to one of the great Missouri QBs of all time. The receivers are nothing to brag about, but Coffman along with fellow TE Martin Rucker look to make one of the best duos in the nation. Four of five offensive linemen return, and the running backs will get more opportunities without Smith. The Tigers return seven starters on defense, with the heart of the unit being a pair of senior linebackers, Marcus Bacon and Dedrick Harrington, and the entire front-four. Only FS David Overstreet returns for Pinkel's secondary, meaning lots of new faces to see game action in 2006.

Prediction (6-6): The era after Brad Smith will be a rocky one. Some said Pinkel kept his job after a come from behind victory in the Independence Bowl against South Carolina. Daniel will have to make plays in order for Missouri to have a winning record. The Tigers secondary is inexperienced and will be exposed in 2006.

9. Kansas (7-5, 5-3)
Coach: Mark Mangino
Key Players Lost: Clark Green (RB), Nick Reid (LB)
2006 Key Players: Kerry Meier (QB),
Key Games: @ Toledo (9/15), @Neb (9/30)

Summary: The Jayhawks have a new and highly touted quarterback in Meier, who will look to bring the offense out of the Big 12 cellar in yards per game (310.7). The receivers are a big question with three of the top four leaders in receptions gone from a year ago. Three upperclassmen offensive linemen return, and team offensive MVP Jon Cornish returns for his senior season after splitting time with Green in 2005. Cornish ran for 5.8 yards per carry and collected nine touchdowns in 2005. The Kansas defense only returns two starters and will greatly miss 2005 Big 12 Defensive POY Nick Reid. Reid and two other senior linebackers graduated, leaving a lot of inexperience in the middle of the Kansas defense.

Prediction (5-7): Meier answered the hype surrounded around him in the spring game with a four touchdown performance (three throwing, one rushing). Replacing nine starters on a defense that ranked third in the country in rushing yards allowed (83.3) will be tough. Kansas does have a pretty favorable Big 12 schedule outside of road games against Nebraska and Iowa State.

10. Kansas State (5-6, 2-6)
Coach: Ron Prince
Key Players Lost: Tearrius George (DE)
2006 Key Players: Brandon Archer (LB), Jordy Nelson (WR)
Key Games: vs. Louisville (9/23), vs. Neb (10/14)

Summary: Prince inherits a Kansas State team that looks to go to a bowl game for the first time in three years. The Wildcats return 17 starters and all offensive leaders, but Prince says returning starting quarterback Allan Evridge will compete with Dylan Meier (brother of KU QB) for the job. Converted DB to WR Jordy Nelson possesses size and speed to be one of the most dangerous receivers in the Big 12. Starting running back Thomas Clayton will be suspended for the first game after striking a university parking employee with his car. With eight returning defensive starters, the defense looks to be more opportunistic, as it only produced eight interceptions and 15 sacks in 2005. Archer is a Nagurski Award watch list candidate and will the heart and soul of the defense.

Prediction (5-7): Prince, the former Virginia offensive coordinator will bring a new system, meaning it will take time for the young quarterbacks to learn it. There's no indication that the defense has improved, but the eight returning starters should provide valuable experience. The Wildcats have a schedule amiable for a fast start, but wins will be meager come the second half of the season.

11. Oklahoma State (4-7, 1-7)
Coach: Mike Gundy
Key Players Lost: Paul Duren (LB)
2006 Key Players: D'Juan Woods (WR), Adarius Bowman (WR)
Key Games: Nebraska (10/28), at Texas (11/4), Oklahoma (11/25)

Summary: Bowman, a transfer from North Carolina, is the talk of Stillwater. The 6-4, 220 pound receiver has the speed and the hops to be a superstar. Quarterback Bobby Reid took the meaningful snaps under center in the spring game, throwing for 248 yards and three touchdowns after splitting time in 2005. The leading rusher, Mike Hamilton, returns along with three offensive linemen. The Cowboy hope LB Chris Collins can solve his legal issues so he can lead a defense that allowed the most points per game (31.3) in the Big 12. Andre Sexton and Donovan Woods look to be the key components of the secondary.

Prediction (5-7): Coach Gundy looks to cut down on the 35 turnovers from a year ago. Reid looks to have fantastic weapons at his disposal in Bowman and Woods as well as Hamilton in the backfield. Playing in the Big 12 South will be the tell-all tale after Oklahoma State's cupcake non-conference schedule.

12. Baylor (5-6, 2-6)
Coach: Guy Morriss
Key Players Lost: Maurice Lane (DB)
2006 Key Players: Shawn Bell (QB)
Key Games: at Colorado (10/7), Oklahoma (11/18)

Summary: Baylor posted two Big 12 wins for the first time in 2005 and returns its leading passer (Bell), rusher (Paul Mosley), and receiver (Dominique Zeigler). The Bears offensive scheme this year will be new, adding a Texas Tech flavor with the insertion of the spread offense. Defensively, Baylor must replace its top four tacklers from last season. All-American punter Daniel Sepulveda injured his right knee in a pickup game of basketball and had surgery in April, but expects to be ready for the season opener.

Prediction (3-9): A new offense, an intelligent quarterback and eight of 11 starters returning are promising. Having only four defensive starters returning is not. The Bears won their most games (five) in a season since 1995. Being a member of the Big 12 South, even thinking of Baylor in a bowl game is beyond reality.

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