Big Ten Preview - College Football News

Big Ten Preview
By Jeff Zell
Posted: 5:00 am PDT 2006-07-14

The Big Ten was the only conference to send two teams to a BCS game last season. The conference has about 2--3 good teams and 2--3 bad teams and the rest is mediocrity. The one safe bet is Ohio State is the team to beat. Watch Michigan State as a sleeper, but wager on Penn State coming down from its lofty status of a year ago.

1. Ohio State (10--2, 7--1)
Coach: Jim Tressel
Key Players Lost: Santonio Holmes (WR), A.J. Hawk (LB), Nick Mangold (C)
2006 Key Players: Troy Smith (QB), Ted Ginn Jr. (WR), Quinn Pitcock (DT)
Key Games: @Texas (9/9), @Iowa (9/30), vs. Mich (11/18)

Summary: The offense went out with a bang in the 2005 season, compiling 619 total yards on the way to a Fiesta Bowl victory. Heisman candidate Smith (408 yards in Fiesta Bowl) along with seven other starters return to recreate what they did a year ago. Ginn Jr., also a Heisman candidate, had a disappointing sophomore year but always remains a big play threat. The offensive line lost two players to the NFL, but has three seniors returning to block for Antonio Pittman, who gained over 1,300 yards in 2005. The defense is a different story. The Buckeyes lost nine starters (six drafted by the NFL) and have an entirely new linebacker and secondary crew. Bednarik Award watch candidate Pitcock has the size (6--3, 295) and speed to make a difference on the D--Line. With Ohio State there are always close games, meaning the special teams are of the utmost importance. Two underclassmen are battling for the job this year after Tressel was spoiled with Josh Huston and Mike Nugent.

Prediction (11--1): There's always cause for concern when you lose nine starters on defense. But Ohio State doesn't rebuild, it reloads. And even if the Buckeyes' defense is in a rebuilding phase, it's a good bet the offense will pick up the slack. Smith is a poor man's Vince Young, with possibly more weapons at his disposal. Watch for freshman running back Chris Wells to make an instant impact. Two tough road games at Texas and Iowa as well as the annual Michigan game are circled in red on their schedule. But don't forget the Penn State game on Sept. 23. If the Buckeyes play for the national championship, they will have definitely been battle--tested.

2. Iowa (7--5, 5--3)
Coach: Kirk Ferentz
Key Players Lost: Chad Greenway (LB), Clint Solomon (WR), Abdul Hodge (LB)
2006 Key Players: Albert Young (RB), Drew Tate (QB), Ken Iwebema (DE)
Key Games: vs. ISU (9/16), vs. OSU (9/30), @ Mich (10/21)

Summary: Iowa has balance. Maxwell Award watch candidates Tate and Young are the leaders for Iowa. Young finally stayed healthy in 2005 and rushed for 1,334 yards, good for 17th in the country. Tate comes off a junior campaign where he passed for more than 2,800 yards and had a 22 TD--7 INT ratio. Tate loses his top wideouts in Solomon and Ed Hinkel, but TE Scott Chandler, who led the team with 47 catches, returns. Herb Grigsby and Calvin Davis are the two leaders for the wide receiver jobs. The offensive line lost two starters but returns a versatile core of linemen as well as some younger talents. Iowa returns seven starters on defense including talented DE Iwebema, who led the Hawkeyes in sacks in 2005 (seven). Iowa lost what many considered the top linebacking duo in the country (Hodge and Greenway) and is trying to replace them with a pair of juniors who accounted for a total of 36 tackles in 2005 (Mike Humpal and Mike Klinkenbord). The secondary lost a pair of four--year starters but returns both safeties as well as upperclassmen replacements.

Prediction (11--1): Iowa's problem is the early upset. In 2004 Arizona State blew out the Hawkeyes, and in 2005 Iowa State roughed them up 23--3. The trap game this year couldn't be Syracuse, could it? Offensively, the Hawkeyes should have no trouble averaging 30--plus points a game like they did a year ago. The loss of the linebackers and corners could be cause for concern against Big Ten competition. If the Hawkeyes get a big win at home against Ohio State, they would likely be undefeated heading to "The Big House" (Michigan).

3. Michigan (7--5, 5--3)
Coach: Lloyd Carr
Key Players Lost: Jason Avant (WR)
2006 Key Players: Michael Hart (RB), Chad Henne (QB), Lamarr Woodley (DE)
Key Games: @ND (9/16), @PSU (10/14), @OSU (11/18)

Summary: After a seven--win season and a loss in the Alamo Bowl, Carr must have a successful season to silence anyone who says his job isn't secure. Junior Henne has started all 24 games he has played under center and has been heralded the leader this year. Health is key for Hart, who missed considerable action in 2005. Steve Breaston looks to have an increased receiving role now that Avant is in the NFL, and will be teamed up with Mario Manningham (six TDs in 2005). The offensive line returns only two starters. On defense, the Wolverines return eight starters. Bednarik Award candidate Woodley and DT Alan Branch should be sufficient to stop the run. One question remains in the secondary at the corner spot opposite Leon Bass.

Prediction (10--2): Carr is 10--14 since 1997 in road games against teams that have finished with a winning record. Road games in 2006 include Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State. Ouch. Three new offensive linemen isn't a good sign, but a quarterback with 24 starts under his belt is. After a lackluster 2005 season, the Wolverines could be a tad underrated coming into 2006 and could play for the Big Ten title in the season finale vs. Ohio State. The key to success is an early season win at Notre Dame and let the momentum carry them the rest of the way.

4. Michigan State (5--6, 2--6)
Coach: John L. Smith
Key Players Lost: Stefon Wheeler (LT), Chris Morris (C), Michael Bazemore (DE)
2006 Key Players: Javon Ringer (RB), Drew Stanton (QB), Jehuu Caulcrick (RB)
Key Games: vs. Notre Dame (9/23), at UM (10/7), OSU (10/14)

Summary: The Spartans return their team leader in passing (Stanton), rushing (Ringer), receiving (Jerramy Scott) and pass rushing (Clifton Ryan). Heisman candidate Stanton looks to have another gaudy statistical year as he returns three solid wide receivers in Scott (four TDs), Matt Trannon (four TDs) and Kerry Reed (five TDs). The ground game should click just as well as the aerial attack. Ringer will get favorable defensive alignments and likely will run for over 1,000 yards based on the potency of the offense. The Spartans return their top pass rusher in Ryan (three sacks in 2005). The hard work and play of junior safety Nehemiah Warrick was "infectious" Coach Smith said after spring workouts.

Prediction (9--3): The Spartans know they CAN be a top 10 team, as displayed by their 4--0 September start (including an overtime win over ND) last season. Continuing that hot start into October and December will require Stanton to cut back on mistakes, the defense to play a whole lot better than last year, and a consistent kicking game.

5. Penn State (11--1, 7--1)
Coach: Joe Paterno
Key Players Lost: Michael Robinson (QB), Tamba Hali (DE)
2006 Key Players: Paul Posluszny (LB), Derrick Williams (WR), Anthony Morelli (QB)
Key Games: @ND (9/16), @Ohio State (9/23), vs. Mich (10/14)

Summary: After a breakout season in 2005, the Nittany Lions lose their starting quarterback, four starting offensive linemen, three defensive linemen and all four defensive backs. Offensively, Penn State goes with a more traditional Penn State quarterback with a strong--armed, pure passer in Morelli. Sophomore receivers Williams and Deon Butler are more than viable options at wideout. Running behind four new offensive linemen is 1,000--yard rusher Tony Hunt. The core of one of the best defenses in the nation, the linebackers, is still there, but that's about it. The linebackers ---- Posluszny, Dan Connor and Tim Shaw ---- have been tabbed one of the most dangerous units in the country.

Prediction (8--4): Morelli will lack the versatile element at the quarterback position that allowed the Nittany Lions to be successful in 2005. With a new offensive and defensive line, combined with a new secondary, Paterno will have his hands full getting to a bowl game, much less a BCS game. A schedule which includes road games at Notre Dame and Ohio State in two of their first four weeks isn't a good recipe for success. It's a good bet to see Penn State return to mediocrity in 2006.

6. Wisconsin (10--3, 5--3)
Coach: Bret Bielema
Key Players Lost: Brandon Williams (WR), Brian Calhoun (RB)
2006 Key Players: John Stocco (QB), Matt Shaughnessy (DE), Joe Thomas (OT)
Key Games: @Mich (9/23), vs. PSU (11/4), @Iowa (11/11)

Summary: Bielema was promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach, filling Barry Alvarez's shoes. Bielema will have a strong defense, as the Badgers return eight starters on that side of the ball. Shaughnessy and Nick Hayden anchor a strong defensive line. Senior Mark Zalewski will start at linebacker, and senior SS Joe Stellmacher will lead the secondary. Wisconsin will have to find a new touchdown machine as Calhoun's talents (1,636 yards, 22 TDs) are now in the NFL. Redshirt freshman P.J. Hill emerged from spring drills as the No. 1 tailback option. Stocco comes into his senior season second on the active collegiate quarterback win list (19), but loses all of his receivers from 2005. The Badgers return two from the offensive line of 2005, including highly touted Thomas.

Prediction (8--4): Lucky for the Badgers, they don't have to play Ohio State this year, meaning another 10--win season is not out of the question. If you are a believer that good running backs are a product of Wisconsin's system, then Calhoun won't be greatly missed. Stocco, with eight new starters around him, will be asked to win a couple of games. The key game could be the opener when the Badgers travel to Cleveland to play Bowling Green. Last year Wisconsin won the shootout 56--42.

7. Purdue (5--6,3--5)
Coach: Joe Tiller
Key Players Lost: Rob Ninkovich (DT)
2006 Key Players: Curtis Painter (QB), Dorien Bryant (WR), Torii Williams (SS)
Key Games: @ND (9/30), vs. PSU (10/28), @ MSU (11/4)

Summary: The Boilermakers' strength lies within their offensive line and wide receivers. Bryant caught 80 balls a year ago, and if Kyle Ingraham (39 receptions) meets academic standards, Purdue will have one of the top receiving duos in the Big Ten. The O--Line is experienced and will allow time for Painter to get the ball to his talented receivers. Kory Sheets was second on the team in all--purpose yardage in 2005 and will start at tailback. On defense, Purdue lost key performer Ninkovich (17 TFL and eight sacks). Strong safety Williams returns from a back injury and is a part of a veteran defense that includes nine upperclassmen returning.

Prediction (7--6): Purdue had lofty expectations in 2005 and failed miserably. Tiller starts 2006 with a young but experienced quarterback, Painter, who has the tools at his expense to be successful. The Boilermakers should get off to a 4--0 start before heading to South Bend to seek revenge on the Domers who beat them by three touchdowns in 2005. Crucial home games against Wisconsin and Penn State will decide if this team is bowl--worthy.

8. Northwestern (7--5, 5--3)
Coach: Pat Fitzgerald
Key Players Lost: Brett Basanez (QB), Tim McCarigle (LB)
2006 Key Players: Tyrell Sutton (RB), Marquice Cole (CB)
Key Games: @Nevada (9/22), vs. Purdue (10/14), vs. MSU (10/21)

Summary: Sophomore running back Sutton had a phenomenal year in 2005, rushing for 1,474 yards and 16 TDs as a true freshman. In 2006 he gets the same fellas upfront; all five offensive linemen return. C.J. Bacher looks to be the favorite to replace Basanez at quarterback, and will throw to a consistent target in Shaun Hebert (79 receptions in 2005). On defense, Cole (Big Ten leader in INTs in 2005) is the leader in the secondary. A veteran linebacking crew will miss McCarigle (NCAA all--time leading tackler) but returns the rest of the group. The defensive line believes it will improve after a lot of young guys got extensive playing time last year.

Prediction (7--5): The story of 2006 will be how Northwestern overcomes the sudden death of head coach Randy Walker. Fitzgerald takes over as the youngest coach in Division I history, and he has his work cut out for him. With all the distractions, compiled with playing in the Big Ten, a winning season would be a moral victory. A nationally televised game on a Friday night against Nevada will indicate if the Wildcats will be going bowling this year.

9. Minnesota   (7--5, 4--4)
Coach: Glen Mason
Key Players Lost: Lawrence Maroney (RB)
2006 Key Players: Steve Davis (DE), Amir Pinnix (RB), Bryan Cupito (QB)
Key Games: @ Cal (9/9), vs. PSU (10/7), vs Iowa (11/18),

Summary: The Golden Gophers learned running back Gary Russell will miss the 2006 season due to academic problems. Amir Pinnix, better known for his 206--yard game against MSU, averaged six yards per carry and now is the go--to--guy. Senior Cupito is under center with his top three receiving threats, Logan Payne, Ernie Wheelwright and Matt Spaeth, all back in 2006. On defense, the Golden Gophers look to a pair of sophomores for big contributions. Speedy DE Davis, and SS Dominic Jones will look to lead the team.

Prediction (5--7): The Gophers have four easy wins on their schedule -- Kent State, Temple, North Dakota State and Indiana however, the rest of their schedule is a complete toss--up. Cupito threw for over 2,500 yards and 19 TDs a year ago with Maroney; he will not be asked to do it without a star running back. A leader must emerge on defense.

10. Indiana   (4--7,1--7)
Coach: Terry Hoeppner
Key Players Lost: Victor Adeyanju (DE), Isaac Sowells (OT)
2006 Key Players: James Hardy (WR)
Key Games: @ Illinois (10/7)

Summary: Indiana returns one of the nation's top young wide receivers, Hardy, after a phenomenal freshman year (61 rec, 893 yards, 10 T's). Getting him the ball is junior Blake Powers, who set the single season touchdown pass record (22) in 2005. The running back position is up for grabs, as well as is a pair of O--Line positions. On defense, the loss of second--team All--Big Ten Adeyanju and Ben Ishola will hurt the line, as well as the loss of half of the starting linebackers. Senior Will Meyers (75 tackles) and the rest of the 2005 starting secondary is back in 2006.

Prediction (3--9): Not much to brag about when it comes to Hoosier football. Powers led the league in interceptions, the running backs are unproven and the line was depleted from last year's team, which had the worst running game in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have a cupcake schedule until conference play. The toilet bowl is against Illinois.

11. Illinois   (2--9,0--8)
Coach: Ron Zook
Key Players Lost: Really none
2006 Key Players: Pierre Thomas (RB), Akim Millington (OT), Chris Norwell (DT)
Key Games: vs. Syracuse (9/16), vs. Indiana (10/7)

Summary: The Illini were awful in 2005 because they were inexperienced and overmatched. In 2006 there may be more fight out of the Illini as they return 21 starters. Thompson and E.B. Halsey combined for 158 yards per game a year ago, and look to improve that number with the entire O--Line returning. They will be pushed for time by sophomore Rashard Mendenhall, who was a top recruit. Quarterback Tim Brasic had an above average spring game, connecting on two touchdown passes, but must cut down on turnovers (11 INTs) to be successful. Illinois' defense had no noise in 2005, as it was last in the nation in rushing defense. Norwell was a lone bright spot in 2005, recording 7.5 TFL and three sacks.

Prediction (4--8): Can you really get worse when you lose every conference game by at least 17 points? Illinois has six winnable games in 2006, but most likely will win four. The biggest upset (if you could call it one) could be when Illinois plays Syracuse in Week 3. Give Zook at least two years to play his guys who he has recruited, and then judge him (again).

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