Consider Schedules - College Football News

Consider Schedules
By Jim Johnson
Posted: 4:30 am PDT 2006-08-07

You're a smart person, so you've done your homework. You're working on handicapping the 2006 college football season, and you know where the best players are, which schools have the best coaches and where the best teams are. You've got it all figured out, and you know how the season is going to play out now, don't you?

Not quite. One other critically important factor to consider is a team's schedule. Who do they play, when do they face them and where are the games? The answers to those questions are included below. I'll examine the major conferences and show you how the final results will be strongly influenced by the team's schedules.

ACC: In an interesting quirk, the Atlantic Division could be all but decided by the end of September. The three primary contenders; Clemson, Florida State and Boston College all face off against each other in the first month of the season. Clemson drew the short straw here since the Tigers have to visit both other schools in consecutive weeks -- BC on Sept. 9 and FSU on Sept. 16. Since Florida State also hosts BC on Oct. 21, the schedule gives the Seminoles a distinct advantage. Clemson does catch one break, though, with its big games coming early. This will give the Tigers' veteran team (15 returning starters) an advantage over the younger Seminoles and Eagles. Virginia Tech's chances to repeat as Coastal Division champs will be hindered by its much tougher slate of conference road games compared to chief rival Miami. The Hokies must travel to North Carolina, Boston College, Miami and Wake Forest, while the Hurricanes go to Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland and Virginia. The Yellow Jackets should be the only team to give Miami trouble, while Virginia Tech could struggle in all of its road contests.

Big Ten: The schedule is always an issue in this conference, the only one without a championship game where all of the teams in the league do NOT play each other. Therefore, the first thing to look at among the contenders is who do they not face. Among the four main challengers for the championship, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State and Michigan, the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions have the edge here since they do not have to face each other. When reviewing the road conference games, the Hawkeyes also come up with a big advantage. Besides a trip to Michigan, they visit Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois, all of which are likely to post losing Big Ten records. The Wolverines have the toughest slate, having to play at Ohio State and Penn State along with trips to Minnesota and Indiana. Ohio State is probably the best team in the league, but the schedule makes Iowa a serious threat to the Buckeyes' championship hopes.

Big 12: Schedules in the South Division won't be much of a factor mainly due to the fact that the Texas-Oklahoma game continues to be played on neutral ground at the Cotton Bowl. The game between the two best teams in the North, Iowa State and Nebraska, will be in Ames, Iowa on Oct. 7, but the Cyclones will have to survive road trips to Texas and Oklahoma for that game to mean much. Nebraska gets the Longhorns at home, does not have to play the Sooners and goes to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. This is a HUGE advantage for the Cornhuskers, and a win at Iowa State should all but guarantee them a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big East: The conference's automatic BCS bid could be decided on Nov. 2, when West Virginia visits Louisville. The Mountaineers could still face a challenge at Pitt in the annual "Backyard Brawl" game, and the Cardinals must also travel to Pitt and dangerous Rutgers. The schedule gives the Panthers the opportunity to be spoilers with one home upset and contenders with two. A slight edge goes to Louisville here, but I suspect the gap in quality between it and West Virginia is too great for the Cardinals to overcome.

Pac-10: The league championship will probably be decided on Nov. 18, when California visits Southern Cal -- advantage Trojans for hosting this big game. The chances of Oregon or Arizona State stealing the title were probably scuttled by the schedule-makers. In a cruel twist of fate, the Ducks and Sun Devils play both Cal and USC on the road.

SEC: Florida's path to the league championship will be hampered by the toughest schedule among any of the contenders. The Gators play all five of the top contenders for spots in the SEC Championship Game. They travel to Tennessee and Auburn, host Alabama and LSU, and play Georgia in Jacksonville. On the other hand, Georgia has the easiest path. The Bulldogs are the only top contender to play as few as three of the others, hosting Tennessee, traveling to Auburn and their neutral field game with Florida. In the West division, all three of the top teams play four of the five conference contenders, but Auburn gets a slight edge here by hosting three of them: LSU, Florida and Georgia. Their toughest road game comes in Auburn's season finale at Alabama. LSU faces the toughest road slate in the SEC, heading to Auburn, Florida and Tennessee. Georgia's schedule could lead to the Bulldogs slipping by Florida for the East title, while the LSU at Auburn game on Sept. 16 will have a lot to say about who wins the West.

In other leagues: TCU will have to survive a trip to its primary challenger, Utah, to have a chance for a BCS bid coming out of the Mountain West. The big game in the WAC will be Fresno State at Boise State on Nov. 1. If BSU wins, it still has to make a trip to dangerous Nevada to close the regular season. In Conference USA, Central Florida has a leg up on winning the East Division since the Golden Knights host the other main contender, Southern Miss. The result of UTEP's visit to Tulsa will likely determine the West division's representative in the league's championship game.

Today's lesson: It's not only important how well teams play, it's also about who they play.

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