Overrated And Underrated Teams - College Football News

Overrated And Underrated Teams
By Jim Johnson
Posted: 4:30 am PDT 2006-08-07

It's easy for someone to look back in December and tell you which college football teams were overrated and underrated by oddsmakers and prognosticators. Seldom being one to take the easy route myself, I'm going to tell you before the season's opening kickoff.

These are the overrated teams that will eat up your bankroll early in the season. Don't let them.

Florida State: The Seminoles were the overwhelming pick by the ACC media to win the conference championship this season and are showing up in most Top 10 rankings I have seen. It's not going to happen. The offensive line, decimated by injuries last season, is still something of a question mark. FSU's defense, the strength of the team in 2005, won't be as good this season. The Noles lost four NFL draft choices from their front seven and have only one returning starter in the secondary. I think they will look a lot more like last season's team, which finished 8-5, than a Top 10 team this year.

Miami: I'm not hating on the ACC -- I'm a big-time ACC guy. Although the Canes will win the weakened Coastal Division, I don't see them as a Top 15 team like most polls have them. Their defense will again be one of the best in the nation, but they don't seem to have many playmakers on the other side of the ball. Quarterback Kyle Wright is good, but will the line protect him, and who will he throw to? Two players who will be counted on to make plays for Miami, running back Tyrone Moss and receiver Ryan Moore, have already been suspended. Both will miss the opener with Florida State, and Moore will sit out an additional game. Like FSU, the Canes will look a lot like last season's disappointing team.

Other overrated teams: I'm not convinced Tennessee will be a Top 25 team this year. I know QB coach David Cutcliffe is supposed to heal the fractured psyche of QB Eric Ainge, but there isn't any area of the Vols' offense I find particularly impressive. ... I'm also skeptical that Virginia Tech will stay in the top 25. The Hokies' QB situation is a mess with the early departure of Marcus Vick, and they also have potential issues with their offensive line. After last year's disappointing finish and off-field issues, Coach Frank Beamer has to get his team back in a positive mindset.

Now here are some teams that can help you make back the money you lose on the overrated ones.

Clemson: The Tigers are flying under the radar with most of the attention in the ACC focused on Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech. Clemson has most of its starters returning (with the exception of the secondary), playmakers galore at running back and receiver, and a fifth-year senior quarterback, Will Proctor, who has served a long apprenticeship before inheriting the starting job this year. The Tigers have three running backs, James Davis, Reggie Merriweather and true freshman C.J. Spiller, who are good enough to start. Their defensive front seven, anchored by All-American candidate Gaines Adams at one end, is among the better groups in the nation. This will be the year the Tigers return to the top of the ACC.

Auburn: It's unusual to say that a team ranked in the Top 10 is underrated, but I think the Tigers are. They have a bona-fide Heisman candidate in running back Kenny Irons and a dark-horse candidate in quarterback Brandon Cox. Auburn will again field one of the toughest defenses in the nation (No. 6 in scoring last season), and the Tigers' special teams are solid. Their weaknesses last season, turnovers and lack of a vertical passing game, should be greatly improved now that Cox has a full year of experience and senior wide receiver Courtney Taylor is healthy. I think Auburn is the best team in the nation and will survive the gauntlet of the SEC schedule.

Other underrated teams: Louisville also has a Heisman candidate in running back Michael Bush, and, if he's healthy, an outstanding QB in Brian Brohm. The Cardinals' defense, although it will be without end Elvis Dumervil (20 sacks in 2005), is still above average. Their offense (43 points per game last year) is well above average. If the Cardinals can get past Miami on Sept. 16, they could be undefeated heading into their showdown with West Virginia on Nov. 2. ... Most people think Arizona is a year away from being a contender in the Pac-10, but I beg to differ. Wildcats QB Willie Tuitama survived his surprise baptism of fire last season in what was supposed to be a redshirt freshman year -- he has enormous upside. Coach Mike Stoops has recruited plenty of talent around him to greatly improve the Wildcats' No. 74 total offense ranking from 2005. He is a defensive wizard, so count on the Arizona defense improving and the Wildcats making it to a bowl game.

Check back in December and see how smart (or God forbid, how dumb) I was.

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