Top 25 Capsules - College Football News

Top 25 Capsules
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 6:30 am PDT 2006-08-31

Northern Arizona at No. 24 Arizona State
When: Thursday, 10 p.m ET
WagerWeb.com odds: No line
Storyline: This would be a nothing game if not for the controversy surrounding the Sun Devils' starting quarterback. Sam Keller, who was the starter at the beginning of last season, was named the starter and within 24 hours lost his job to sophomore Rudy Carpenter. Keller is now at Nebraska, and Carpenter is put to the test.
Analysis: Arizona State head coach Dick Koetter eventually made the right decision going with Carpenter, who led the NCAA in passing efficiency and the Sun Devils to a 4-1 record at the end of the season. Plus his teammates, who went to the coach to argue, are behind Carpenter. Look for the Sun Devils to run it up to make the coach and quarterback look good. Arizona State 63, Northern Arizona 14.
North Texas at No. 3 Texas
When: Saturday, Noon ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -41
Storyline: Who will step up and fill the extremely large shoes of Vince Young? It will be a freshman but which one? Colt McCoy or Jevan Snead? McCoy has been named the starter, but it won't matter because Mack Brown will calling on sophomore running back Jamaal Charles to provide the offensive spark.
Analysis: Texas has opened against North Texas two of the previous four years, with the Longhorns winning big but splitting against the spread. Texas has to be wary of looking ahead, and the offense may struggle. Texas 35, North Texas 3.

Montana at No. 16 Iowa
When: Saturday, 12:05 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: No line
Storyline: The Hawkeyes could be a sleeper to win the Big Ten and even though Montana is one of the best Division II squads, this shouldn't be much of a contest.
Analysis: Iowa is terrific at home and even better against the spread; too bad there isn't one. The Hawkeyes have won their last four home openers. Iowa 47, Montana 14.

Western Kentucky at No. 15 Georgia
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: No line
Storyline: Georgia will see if hometown product QB Joe Tereshinski, who gets his second career start and his first at home, can replace the dual threat of D.J. Shockley. The Bulldog defense must find three replacements in the secondary.
Analysis: At home under Mark Richt, the Bulldogs are 13-0 against non-conference foes. Western Kentucky gave up an average of 26.5 points a game last year. Georgia 39, Western Kentucky 3.

Northeastern at No. 17 Va. Tech
When: Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: No line
Storyline: There isn't a Vick at QB for Virginia Tech. This is good (off the field) and bad (on the field). The Hokies actually have an adequate replacement in two sophomores. Sean Glennon, a true passer, beat out Colt Holt, a natural runner, for the starting spot. Blacksburg police should expecting less problems from these two.
Analysis: Frank Beamer, who has won 17 of 19 home openers while at Va. Tech, gets a frosted cupcake with sprinkles here. Va. Tech 43, Northeastern 0.

Northern Illinois at No. 1 Ohio State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -17
Storyline: Is starting the season No. 1 the kiss of death for the Buckeyes? It will depend on how quickly the defense can jell after losing nine starters. At least Ohio State has the luxury having senior QB Troy Smith and an offense that can score at will. For the Huskies, RB Garrett Wolfe will try to shake off the rust after January shoulder surgery.
Analysis: Ohio State has covered its last four home openers. Northern Illinois has covered its last four season openers. Something has to change. The Buckeyes' offense is too much and OSU wants to send a message to Texas, next week's opponent. Ohio State 45, Northern Illinois 17.

Florida Atlantic at No. 18 Clemson
When: Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Clemson -33 1/2
Storyline: Clemson is young, with 20 redshirt and true freshmen getting heir first taste of Death Valley. The Tigers also have six sophomores starting on defense and a quarterback, Will Proctor, making his second career start after a horrible spring game.
Analysis: Even head coach Terry Bowden sounded worried about a letdown against a lesser-known in Florida Atlantic. Owls legendary head coach Howard Schnellenberger knows how to get teams ready, and he's had a month to make a statement. Clemson 30, FAU 17.

Marshall at No. 5 West Virginia
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: West Virginia -22 1/2
Storyline: Marshall will have to find a way to score without its top two wide receivers, Hiram Moore (suspended, drunk driving charge) and Shawn Lauzen (injury). West Virginia is thinking national championship and burning couches.
Analysis: The Governor's Trophy is at stake, and West Virginia will need to impress to keep its lofty ranking. Plus the Mountaineers have covered their last seven regular-season games West Virginia 45, Marshall 13.

Akron at No. 19 Penn State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Penn State -17
Storyline: Legendary head coach Joe Paterno showed last season that he's not ready for retirement with the Nittany Lions coming within one play of having an undefeated regular season. But JoePa will have to find a replacement for senior quarterback Michael Robinson. Penn State also lost three starters on the defensive line. With an upset win over Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship, Akron and its 16 returning starters will hope to continue its climb to respectability.
Analysis: Penn State covered its last seven regular season games. But in the first two games of last season, the Nittany Lions failed to cover a couple of large numbers at home. And the Zips, with senior quarterback Luke Getsy, can move the football. Look for this one to be close. Penn State 28, Akron 27.

Louisiana Tech at No. 20 Nebraska
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -21 1/2
Storyline: Nebraska once again starts off with an easy opponent. QB Zac Taylor will be expected to lead the Cornhuskers to something better than 8-4. Nebraska also gets two warmup games -- La Tech and Nicholls St. next -- before facing Southern Cal in Week 3.
Analysis: Under Bill Callahan, the Cornhuskers covered the only other time they've been a three touchdown favorite. La Tech is 2-8 against the spread as a road dog in the last 10. Nebraska 33, La Tech 7.

Stanford at No. 21 Oregon
When: Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oregon -12
Storyline: This is a rare conference game season opener. The Ducks will have plenty of offense with QB Jason Dixon running the spread offense. Stanford is getting better with Walt Harris at the helm, but how much better?
Analysis: Oregon has covered the last four times against Stanford. But the Cardinal were perfect as a road dog last season and covered seven of last seven games. Stanford might be overvalued here. Oregon 41, Stanford 17.

No. 9 California at No. 23 Tennessee
When: Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Tennessee -1 1/2
Storyline: Tennessee is only ranked because of reputation after coming off its first losing season in 17 years. Cal, with RB and Heisman candidate Marshawn Lynch, is primed to bump USC off the top of the Pac-10. Cal has added former Northwestern offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar to spread the offense even more.
Analysis: Neyland Stadium, with "Rocky Top" blaring through the loud speakers can be a tough place to play -- not. The Volunteers haven't covered a home game since September 2003 (La. Tech -23) . Cal as a road dog of less than 3 has been less than spectacular (0-2 in 2005). But the Bears are much better. Cal 31, Tennessee 14.

Southern Miss at No. 7 Florida
When: Saturday, 6 p.m ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -20
Storyline: Gators head coach Urban Meyer is now in his second season, and QB Chris Leak is getting his final chance to show he was worthy of being a highly recruited stud. But who will carry the ball in Gainesville?
Analysis: Meyer isn't known for running up the score -- the Gators only covered one out of five as a two-touchdown favorite last seasons. Southern Miss covered in its opener last year at Alabama. But look for the Meyer who coached at Utah and won big to show up this season. Florida 55, Southern Miss 14.

UAB at No. 10 Oklahoma
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Oklahoma -22
Storyline: Oklahoma is happy to get the season started after an tabloid-filled offseason. QB Rhett Bomar is at Sam Houston State after a summer job at a car dealership and career-backup/wide receiver Paul Thompson gets the start. Will RB Adrian Peterson bounce back after an injury-filled sophomore season? UAB is looking upset with 30 returning seniors.
Analysis: Oklahoma failed to cover in its previous two season openers. But were they inflated favorites? No. Sooners are still overrated. Oklahoma 35, UAB 31.

SMU at No. 25 Texas Tech
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas Tech -26 1/2
Storyline: Texas Tech has beaten SMU in the last 10 meetings. Red Raiders may suffer some growing pains with sophomore Graham Harrell getting the start at QB. Tech fans may be clamoring for redshirt freshman sensation Chris Todd before this one is over.
Analysis: The Red Raiders have only covered once in the last three meetings against SMU and they may get caught looking ahead to UTEP in Week 2. Texas Tech 28, SMU 17.

Washington State at No. 4 Auburn
When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -14 1/2
Storyline: Everyone knows the Auburn offense, with Brandon Cox at QB and Kenny Irons at RB will be solid. But Tigers' defense is the question mark. Tommy Tuberville is going with a faster defensive unit. Washington State will have to rely on QB Alex Brink to tally a ton of points this season.
Analysis: The Tigers have failed to cover in their last three season openers. But Washington State isn't known for giving up a few points. Tigers roll in a laugher. My Lock of the week: Auburn 48, Washington State 17

No. 2 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -6 1/2
Storyline: Coach Charlie Weis has brought the pride back to Notre Dame. Irish QB Brady Quinn is the leading Heisman candidate. Georgia Tech will have to rely on QB Reggie Ball to get the ball to junior Calvin Johnson, who, in my opinion, is the best wideout in the nation.
Analysis: Last season, Georgia Tech shocked Auburn on the road. And don't forget Notre Dame, which is always an overrated betting favorite, failed to cover its final four contests last season. Upset special here: Georgia Tech 24, Notre Dame 20

Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 8 LSU
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: LSU -30
Storyline: LSU head coach Les Miles won't reveal the starting QB. Junior JaMarcus Russell should get the nod over Matt Flynn. As a starter, Russell led Tigers to a 14-2 record over the last two years.
Analysis: LSU has shutout the Ragin' Cajuns in 16 of the previous 20 meetings, including a 48-0 whitewashing in 2002. LSU 38, LL 3.

No. 6 USC at Arkansas
When: Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -8
Storyline: For the Trojans, life without Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush begins. USC has been loaded for years, but it has to deal with off-field distractions with the investigation into wide out Dwayne Jarrett's rent. Junior QB John David Booty will be feeling the pressure of carrying the load for USC. At Arkansas, Coach Houston Nutt might soon be looking for work.
Analysis: USC easily covered against Arkansas last year. This line might be deflated because of the talent exodus at USC. Trojans still better. USC 32, Arkansas 17.

No. 22 TCU at Baylor
When: Sunday, 5:30 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: TCU -6 1/2
Storyline: In the days of the Southwestern Conference. this was a rivalry game with the schools only separated by 85 miles. Now it's a chance for TCU to prove it belongs in the rankings. Horned Frogs veteran defense will get tested against Baylor's new spread offense.
Analysis: Despite being 8-3 against the spread last year, TCU failed to cover as a road favorite twice. Baylor failed to cover all three times as a home dog last year. TCU 38, Baylor 15.

Kentucky at No. 13 Louisville
When: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Louisville -22 1/2
Storyline: Louisville is the best team not in the top 10 and is on a mission to better last season's 9-3 Big East debut. Cardinals QB Brian Brohm (19 TDs) and RB Michael Bush (25 TDs) might be the best combo in the country. At Kentucky, Coach Rich Brooks is already on the hot seat.
Analysis: As a three touchdown or more favorite, Louisville was 4-2 against the spread last season. Louisville and Kentucky have split against the spread in the last four matchups. Louisville 48, Kentucky 24

No. 11 Florida State at No. 12 Miami
When: Monday, 8 p.m. ET
WagerWeb.com odds: Miami -3
Storyline: Florida State and Miami still is a marquee matchup despite the fact that neither team has threatened for a national title in a few years. With it being an opening tilt, one team is already out of the race this season with a loss. Miami may have to start a true freshman, Edgerrin James' cousin Javarris James, at running back.
Analysis: Miami had owned Florida State straight up and against the spread until last year's botched hold on a field goal. Look for the Seminoles, who covered the spread in their first three last season, to keep the momentum in this series. Florida State 20, Miami 10 .

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