Top 25 Capsules - College Football News And Picks

Top 25 Capsules
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 3:30 am PDT 2006-09-16

So far, so good on locks of the week. A 3-0 record is worth bragging about. My overall record in picking Top 25 games dropped to 20-15 after a 7-10 week. This is being called the best weekend of college football in years. My lock of the week, the Bearcats covering in Columbus might surprise a few people.
Note: opening lines are in parentheses.

Cincinnati (1-1) at Ohio State (2-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -29 1/2 (-30 opening line)
Storyline: This is a sticky sandwich game for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are on top of the world after beating Texas, and now they come home with Penn State next week. Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio is Ohio State's former defensive coordinator and a buddy of Jim Tressel. Tressel's nephew, Mike, is the Bearcats' linebackers and secondary coach. Don't look for Tressel to run it up, and look for him to rest some starters in the second half.
Analysis: Ohio State was in a similar spot last year as a 27-point favorite against San Diego State. The Buckeyes didn't cover and won't here.
MY LOCK OF THE WEEK: Ohio State 28, Cincinnati 7

No. 19 Nebraska (2-0) at No. 4 USC (1-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -17 1/2 (-18 1/2)
Storyline: USC had last week off, and that could turn out to be a negative after looking impressive against Arkansas in the season opener. For Nebraska, winning against two pushovers has inflated its stats. These two haven't met since 1970, which by the way ended in a tie. USC QB John David Booty could have a big day against a banged-up Nebraska secondary.
Analysis: The USC defense appeared improved with new coordinator Nick Holt. Nebraska, third in total offense (541 yards per game) in the country, has yet to face a real defense. USC 42, Nebraska 21

No. 11 Michigan (2-0) at No. 2 Notre Dame (2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame - 4 1/2 (-6 1/2)
Storyline: The Irish looked like the Irish of 2005 against Penn State last week. Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn started his Heisman push with a three touchdown and 287-yard passing performance in the win. Michigan will rely on running back Mike Hart (5.2 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns) to carry the load. The Wolverines' defense is only allowing 49 yards per game, but that's against Vanderbilt and Central Michigan.
Analysis: Michigan is 1-7 in its last eight road openers. Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr is 0-3 in South Bend. Michigan is 1-3 as an underdog in its past four against Notre Dame. Too much going against Big Blue here. Notre Dame 38, Michigan 21.

No. 6 LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 3 Auburn (2-0, 1-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -3 1/2 (-3)
Storyline: This should be the prime time game because the winner is in the national title hunt. Last year, Auburn running back Kenny Irons tallied 220 yards against LSU in 20-17 OT loss, which was Auburn's only one last season. The LSU defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in three games dating back to last year's blasting of Miami in the Peach Bowl. Auburn's defense hasn't been too shabby, either. Remember, Auburn defense coordinator Will Muschamp was the mastermind behind the Nick Saban 3-4 defense at LSU.
Analysis: Auburn has covered 10 of its past 13 games, including the first two of the season. The Tigers have been my Lock of the Week for the first two weeks. So why stop now?
SECOND LOCK OF THE WEEK Auburn 24, LSU 10.

No. 7 Florida (2-0) at No. 13 Tennessee (2-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida - 3 1/2
Storyline: Which Tennessee team will show up? The first-week juggernaut that drilled California or the softy that barely beat Air Force? The Gators come in looking unbeatable. But no one has tested the new Florida offensive line. And if Tennessee has a strength, it's the front seven on D. The Vols will be without starting cornerback Inky Johnson, which is too bad for the announcers. Inky stops Leak.
Analysis: The Tennessee defense struggled with Air Force, but that could have been a combination of a letdown from the California win and a look ahead to Florida. The Gators haven't been game tested. Tennessee 28, Florida 20

No. 8 Texas (1-1) at Rice (0-2)
When: Saturday, 6 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -32
Storyline: Texas cornerback Tarell Brown (suspension) is back a week late. The Longhorns will have to deal with thoughts of not winning back-to-back championships. Rice would be happy with thoughts of back-to-back wins, something that hasn't happened since the start of 2004.
Analysis: Rice didn't cover a game in September last year. Why should this year be different? Texas 52, Rice 14

Clemson (1-1, 0-1) at No. 9 Florida State (2-0, 1-0)
When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: FSU -4 1/2
Storyline: Florida State didn't drop in the rankings despite having to score two fourth quarter TDs to beat Troy -- yeah that's right, Troy. Clemson has to be worried about the letdown after a heartbreaking double OT loss at Boston College. In 2003, son, Clemson's Tommy Bowden, beat papa, FSU's Bobby Bowden, to save his job. Tommy may need another miracle. Florida State will be without starting defensive tackle Paul Griffin (out for the season, knee)
Analysis: Bobby Bowden has conceded that FSU can't run the ball. The Seminoles are second-to-last in rushing in the country and will not get much better. Clemson 21, Florida State 17

UAB (1-1) at No. 10 Georgia (2-0)
When: Saturday, 1 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia - 17 (-17 1/2)
Storyline: Georgia true freshman QB Matthew Stafford gets his first career start with Joe Tereshinski out (ankle). Last week in relief, Stafford had three interceptions (8-of-19 for 171 yards), but the Bulldogs' defense helped out by blanking South Carolina. UAB gave Oklahoma a scare in Week 1.
Analysis: In the last three years, Georgia has failed to cover the game following the South Carolina game. Georgia 21, UAB 7

No. 17 Miami (1-1) at No. 12 Louisville (2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Louisville - 4 (-4 1/2)
Storyline: Louisville middle linebacker Nate Harris, a former Hurricane, got his old team fired up. "Everybody knows they're not the same Miami team like they used to be," Harris said in a national media call. "They still have their swagger, but it's not the same Miami team. They're just not. Compared to the game I used to see, they used to dominate everybody. It's just not the same. But theyre still the Miami Hurricanes." Harris is right. Two years ago, Louisville nearly pulled off an upset of Miami in the Orange Bowl. The Cards didn't win, but they exposed the Canes for being weak. The Hurricanes' offense will be without big left tackle Reggie Youngblood (sprained ankle).
Analysis: The Hurricanes under Larry Coker are 5-0 straight up as an underdog. The Coker countdown begins. Louisville is 11-1 as home favorite against the spread. Louisville 33, Miami 14

Duke (0-2, 0-1 ACC) at No. 14 Virginia Tech (2-0, 1-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Virginia Tech -35 (-35 1/2)
Storyline: Virginia Tech didn't look spectacular in a 35-10 win last week against North Carolina. But the Hokies own Duke. Last year, Virginia Tech held the Dukies to only 35 yards of offense in 45-0 victory. Duke true freshman QB Thaddeus Lewis threw for 300 yards last week against Wake Forest.
Analysis: Virginia Tech's inexperienced offense keeps getting better, but the Hokies are due for a hiccup. This is a lot of points for a young team to cover. Virginia Tech 35, Duke 7.

No. 15 Oklahoma (2-0) at No. 18 Oregon (2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oregon - 5 (-4 1/2)
Storyline: This is a rematch of last season's Holiday Bowl, where the Sooners got the best of the Ducks, 17-14. But this one will not be played in San Diego. Oregon has looked sharp to start the season. Sophomore QB Dennis Dixon has paced the Ducks, completing 44-of-66 for 476 yards in the first two games. Oklahoma will rely on the continued resurgence of running back Adrian Peterson, who has 308 yards in the first two games.
Analysis: The Ducks gave up 154 yards of rushing to Fresno State's Dwayne Wright last week. But Oregon is 4-0 straight up against ranked opponents at home. Oregon 21, Oklahoma 20

Iowa State (2-0) at No. 16 Iowa (2-0)
When: Saturday, 12:05 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Iowa -13 1/2
Storyline: Iowa quarterback Drew Tate (ab strain) has been cleared to play this week after sitting out against Syracuse. The Hawkeyes pulled out a win over the Orange and now will try to avenge an embarrassing loss to the Cyclones last year. Iowa State struggled to beat Nevada last week -- scoring only three points in the second half.
Analysis: As the underdog covering the spread in the last four years, Iowa State is 3-1 against Iowa. But Iowa is 3-0 against the spread as a 10-point or more home favorite in its last three. Iowa 34, Iowa State 10

No. 24 Texas Tech (2-0) at No. 20 TCU (2-0)
When: Saturday, 5:45 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas Tech -1 1/2 (-2)
Storyline: This is a make-or-break multi-million dollar game for TCU. If the Horned Frogs can stop Texas Tech's explosive offense, they have a great chance to run the table and get a BCS bowl bid. TCU also puts the nation's longest win streak on the line. Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell is second in the country in passing (73 percent completions, 718 yards and seven TDs) after two games. But the Red Raiders needed overtime to get by UTEP last week.
Analysis: The last time these two met, Texas Tech destroyed TCU, 70-35. But as a favorite, Texas Tech is 1-7 against the spread in the last seven games. TCU 42, Texas Tech 38

Portland State (2-0) at No. 21 California (1-1)
When: Saturday, 6:15 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: no line
Storyline: California gets ready for Pac-10 play with a cupcake in Portland State. Bears QB Nate Longshore had four TD passes and 300 yards in romp over Minnesota last week. Longshore's strong performance was keyed by plenty of time to throw.
Analysis: Portland State hasn't given up a touchdown this season. That streak will end. California 56, Portland State 7

No. 22 Arizona State (2-0) at Colorado (0-2)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: ASU -11 (-10)
Storyline: These are two teams going in different directions. The Dan Hawkins era at Colorado hasn't started as planned. ASU head coach Dirk Koetter has the Sun Devils ready to challenge USC in the Pac-10. Hawkins is a former assistant of Koetter's at Boise State. Despite starting the season 0-2, Colorado has held its opponents to less than a yard a carry.
Analysis: ASU appears to be a no-brainer pick. Beware of the obvious. ASU, also, has California next week.UPSET SPECIAL: Colorado 31, ASU 28.

BYU (1-1) at No. 23 Boston College (2-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: BC -7
Storyline: Boston College sneaks into the Top 25 after sneaking past Clemson in double OT last week. Eagles QB Matt Ryan is questionable with an ankle sprain, but he was questionable last week and played solid (22-for-38, 212 yards and TD). BYU got its first win of the season by beating Tulsa.
Analysis: Boston College is due for a letdown after an emotional game. But BYU is bad. BC 24, BYU 14.

Youngstown State (2-0) at No. 25 Penn State (1-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: no line
Storyline: Penn State tries to recover from a beating in South Bend last week while looking ahead to Ohio State. With I-AA Youngstown State filling a void in the schedule, this could be a remake of "March of the Penguins."
Analysis: Penn State may try to save something for Ohio State next week. Youngstown State isn't a slouch -- it has beaten 18 Division I teams in its history. The Penguins once had a pretty good coach, too, in a guy named Jim Tressel. Penn State 38, YSU 17.

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