Top 25 Capsules For 09-23-2006 - College Football News And Picks

Top 25 Capsules For 09-23-2006
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2006-09-23

After last week's sensational matchups and fantastic finishes, this week in college football could be dubbed "Letdown Saturday." The matchups as a whole are not that interesting, as most of the ranked teams get a break before heading into conference play. Hopefully, I don't have a letdown. My seasons totals are 30-20-1 against the spread in Top 25 games. My locks of the week are 4-1-0.

No. 24 Penn State (2-1) at No. 1 Ohio State (3-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -16 1/2
Storyline: With a crucial loss last season to the Nittany Lions at Penn State, this is another revenge game for the Buckeyes. The Ohio State offense looked sluggish last week in the first half against Cincinnati, but understandably so after big win at Texas. Penn State quarterback Anthony Morelli hasn't yet found his groove yet -- 48-for-92 passing isn't going to cut it against the Buckeyes.
Analysis: Penn State is 0-6 in the last 30 years in Columbus. The Buckeyes have now covered 10 straight, including 5 at home. The last time Ohio State didn't cover came against Penn State on the road last year. Ohio State 45, Penn State 14

Buffalo (1-2) at No. 2 Auburn (2-0)
When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -41
Storyline: This is a nice breather for Auburn after last week's gut-check 7-3 victory over LSU. RB Kenny Irons might not play for the Tigers, and QB Brandon Cox is a little banged up. Buffalo gave up 500 yards of offense to Northern Illinois in last week's 31-13 loss
Analysis: Auburn has enough speed to give theBuffalo Bills a close game. The Tigers' second stringers can beat the Buffalo Bulls. But beware of the letdown, even though Auburn has covered its first four and Buffalo might get shut out. Auburn 40, Buffalo 0

No. 3 USC (2-0) at Arizona (2-1)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -21 1/2
Storyline: USC might be upset about QB John David Booty's hang-loose check-off being exposed by Brent Musburger, but that has to be the Trojans' only complaint. Booty has completed 49-of-71 pass attempts and thrown six touchdowns in the first two wins. The USC defense is much improved, too, and Arizona got whipped by LSU, 45-3, earlier this year.
Analysis: Arizona hung tough for three quarters against USC last year, but still allowed more than 700 yards of offense in the loss. Southern Cal has covered two of the last three against the Wildcats. USC 44, Arizona 17

No. 4 West Virginia (3-0) at East Carolina (1-2)
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: West Virginia -21
Storyline: The Mountaineers, with Steve Slaton leading the way, are averaging 349 yards of rushing per game. Slaton has the third-best average per carry in the nation at 8.1. West Virginia has won 11 in row and is enjoying its highest ranking since 1993. East Carolina scored 28 second-half point last week against Memphis for its only victory.
Analysis: Last year, the Pirates played the Mountaineers tight before losing 20-15. And they held West Virginia to only 127 yards rushing. Could it be the Pirates have the answer to the West Virginia ground game? WVU has covered three of the last four against ECU. West Virginia 35, East Carolina 17

Kentucky (2-1) at No. 5 Florida (3-0)
When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -26 1/2
Storyline: The Gators are coming off an emotional 21-20 comeback win at Tennessee. And still there are stories comparing Gator QB Chris Leak to Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, for being good but not championship caliber. Leak leads the country in TD passes with 10. After Kentucky this week, Florida starts a wicked stretch that includes Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Georgia. Kentucky won its SEC opener at Ole Miss last week, and quarterback Andre Woodson was named the league's offensive player of the week. He threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns.
Analysis: Normally, this wouldn't be a close contest, but Florida is ready for a letdown and has to deal with a couple of suspensions and injuries. Kentucky has confidence with a winning record. Florida has failed to cover in the past four meetings against the Wildcats. LOCK OF THE WEEK Florida 33, Kentucky 21

Wisconsin (3-0) at No. 6 Michigan (3-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan -13 1/2
Storyline: With complete dominance of Notre Dame at South Bend, Michigan is coming off the biggest game in the Lloyd Carr era. The Wolverine defense shined in the blowout, forcing five turnovers. Michigan running back Mike Hart (386 yards rushing, four TDs) has been the beneficiary of a new blocking scheme. The Wolverines will face a Wisconsin defense that has only given up 8 points per game.
Analysis: This game continues with the theme of the week. How can Michigan play any better than it did last week? It is at home, but this is a classic Big Ten game. Michigan has failed to cover in its past two meetings against Wisconsin. Michigan 21, Wisconsin 10

Iowa State (2-1) at No. 7 Texas (2-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -24 1/2
Storyline: The Longhorns begin defense of their Big 12 crown at Austin. The Texas offense got healthy and got some confidence in manhandling Rice last week. Texas freshman QB Colt McCoy was 7-for-8 passing with a touchdown, and two running backs tallied 100 yards. Iowa State has to be on a bit of downer after keeping it close last week against in-state rival Iowa,only to lose in the second half.
Analysis: Iowa State has been fortunate and hasn't had to face Texas in the last two seasons. Texas covered a 17-point spread against the Cyclones three years ago. Texas 42, Iowa State 17

No. 8 Louisville (3-0) at Kansas State (3-0)
When: Saturday, 12:10 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Louisville -14
Storyline: Louisville is coming off its biggest win in school history and now must move on without its best two players. The Cardinals beat Miami without RB Michael Bush (broken leg). But replacing QB Brian Brohm (thumb) might be a tougher task. Sophomore Hunter Cantwell will have that responsibility. First-year coach Ron Prince has K-State undefeated, too. The Wildcats will be without their top receiver, tight end Rashaad Norwood.
Analysis: Expect the Cardinals to struggle in the first half. Kansas State hasn't given up more than 23 points in any game this year. Watch this trend to stay true. Louisville 21, Kansas State 17

Colorado (0-3) at No. 9 Georgia (3-0)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia -27
Storyline: The Bulldogs will be vying for their third straight shutout. And with the way Colorado's season is going, this is extremely possible. The Buffaloes' offense is ranked 115th in the nation. Georgia freshman QB Matthew Stafford must be feeling more comfortable knowing that he doesn't have to put too many points on the board and get a win.
Analysis: Colorado is just horrible. If the Buffs can't cover at home, how can anyone bank on the Buffs on the road? Georgia is perfect this season against the spread. Georgia 30, Colorado 3

Tulane (1-1) at No. 10 LSU (2-1)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: LSU -36
Storyline: LSU has to be downright mad after last week's disappointing 7-3 loss to Auburn. The Tigers played well enough to win, and that could be bad news for Tulane. The Tigers boast the nation's No. 1 defense, allowing only 170 yards offense per game. The Green Wave are coming off a big win at Mississippi State last week.
Analysis: Tulane is the team here that will suffer a letdown. LSU has beaten the Green Wave in 14 straight. LSU 55, Tulane 7

Cincinnati (1-2) at No. 11 Virginia Tech (3-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Virginia Tech -27 1/2
Storyline: The Hokies can't get any respect despite covering their first three games. They are undefeated with teams ahead them in the polls with one loss. Do the voters know something?
Analysis: Cincinnati has only scored 17.2 points in three games, and the Hokies are allowing only 3.3. But it will be the Bearcats defense that stymied Ohio State in the first half last week that will test a young Virginia Tech offense. By the way, the Bearcats shutout the Hokies, 16-0, in their last meeting. Virginia Tech 13, Cincinnati 3

No. 12 Notre Dame (2-1) at Michigan State (3-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -2 1/2
Storyline: The Irish have to be red in the face after an embarrassing loss to Michigan. And don't think for a second Notre Dame hasn't forgotten about last year's upset overtime loss to Michigan State. Remember that Michigan State buried the team flag in the field at South Bend. Charlie Weis remembers. Michigan State beat Pittsburgh 38-23 last week to stay undefeated.
Analysis: The Irish won and covered after both straight-up losses last season. Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 21

No. 14 Iowa (3-0) at Illinois (1-2)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Iowa -24 1/2
Storyline: Iowa overcame a first-half deficit to beat Iowa State last week. Iowa QB Drew Tate appears to be healthy after missing Syracuse game two weeks ago. Illinois is reeling. Head coach Ron Zook is still searching for his first Big Ten win, and the Illini are 1-23 in conference play over the last three years. Maybe Jeff George has some eligibility remaining.
Analysis: Iowa does it with mirrors. The Hawkeyes aren't fancy and not so good at covering the spread, 0-2 this year. Iowa is 2-1 ATS and Illinois. Iowa 35, Illinois 14

Marshall (1-2) at No. 15 Tennessee (2-1)
When: Saturday, 4 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Tennessee -21 1/2
Storyline: Tennessee played well enough to win last week, but the one-point defeat to the Gators has to be discouraging. Tennessee had a tough time defending Air Force's wing-T offense two weeks ago. Look for the Vols to have trouble with the Thundering Herd's option. Marshall's only score in the loss to Kansas State last week came on a special teams play.
Analysis: The Volunteers are 0-7 as a home favorite. Marshall is 0-for-the-year against the spread. Tennessee 30, Marshall 17

Middle Tennessee State (2-1) at No. 17 Oklahoma (2-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oklahoma -28 1/2
Storyline: Oklahoma is steaming mad, and it should be after the ridiculous officials' calls at Oregon. An apology isn't enough. But will it be a distraction or a motivation against Middle Tennessee State? Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson had 214 yards last week and is a legitimate Heisman candidate. The Blue Raiders have only allowed 2.6 yards a carry but might need Pac-10 officials in this contest.
Analysis: Oklahoma hasn't lost two games in a row since 1999. Oklahoma is also perfect against the spread this season. Oklahoma 48, Middle Tennessee State 17

Rice (0-3) at No. 18 Florida State (2-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: FSU -30
Storyline: Rice might be just the opponent that offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden and the Seminoles' offense need. The FSU offense accounted for only 10 points in last week's loss to Clemson. There may be a quarterback switch looming here. FSU starter Drew Weatherford was only 11-for-19 for 102 yards last week. The chants for Xavier Lee will be heard in Tallahassee.
Analysis: Florida State is only 1-2 against the spread and 0-2 as a home favorite this season. This trend will end. Florida State 54, Rice 7

North Carolina (1-2) at No. 19 Clemson (2-1)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Clemson -16 1/2
Storyline: Clemson may have saved Tommy Bowden's job once again last week and now has a chance to win the ACC title. Unfortunately, the Tigers normally play to their competition. North Carolina knows the feeling. The Tar Heels barely beat I-AA Furman, 45-42, last week.
Analysis: The last time Clemson beat Florida State, it covered a similar number against Duke. No letdown here, plus UNC stinks. Clemson 42, North Carolina 10

No. 22 Arizona State (3-0) at No. 20 California (2-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: California -8
Storyline: Arizona State is undefeated but hasn't looked spectacular. Sun Devils QB Rudy Carpenter threw two touchdowns last week against Colorado but also had two interceptions. This is a matchup of the top two passing teams in the Pac-10, but Cal's RB Marshawn Lynch might be the difference maker
Analysis: Cal has won and covered last three meetings against ASU. This line looks cheap, so be careful. UPSET SPECIAL: Arizona State 48, California 45

No. 23 Boston College (3-0) at North Carolina State (1-2)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Boston College -6 1/2
Storyline: Boston College is living a charmed life. Two double-overtime wins, and the Eagles have control of the ACC Atlantic Division. At North Carolina State, head coach Chuck Amato is on the hot seat after 37-7 loss to Southern Mississippi.
Analysis: Boston College easily beat and covered against NC State last year. The Eagles are 2-0-1 against the spread this year. Boston College 33, NC State 10

Troy (1-2) at No. 24 Nebraska (2-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -23 1/2
Storyline: Nebraska came back to earth after losing USC. The Cornhuskers played respectable, but guaranteeing a win was ridiculous. Troy gave both Florida State and Georgia Tech scares.
Analysis: With Troy playing other ranked teams tough, Nebraska will not be surprised. This line might be a bargain considering Troy's strong play. Nebraska 42, Troy 10

Hawaii (1-1) at No. 25 Boise State (3-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Boise State -14
Storyline: Boise State sneaks into the Top 25. Broncos RB Ian Johnson has carried the load, racking up 448 yards for a 7.7 average and 7 TDs on the season. The Hawaii defense is improved, giving up only 324 yards a game compared to 428 a year ago. But the Rainbow Warriors will need QB Colt Brennan to be mistake-free. And what's up with all of the QBs named Colt?
Analysis: The Broncos are tough on their blue-turf home field, winning 20 straight. Hawaii is 0-5 against the Broncos. Boise State 35, Hawaii 17

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