5 Picks To Click For 09-29-2006 - College Football News And Picks

5 Picks To Click For 09-29-2006
By Jeff Zell
Posted: 7:00 am PDT 2006-09-29

It was overtime disappointment last week. OK, I know - UAB can't cover once it goes to OT with Mississippi State - but we have to feel like we were cheated when Navy missed its PAT against Tulsa with a chance to send it to a second OT.

This week in college football brings us truly the beginning of conference play. In this installment of five picks to click, we look again at non-Top 25 teams that should cover their spread.

Houston at Miami (FL)
WagerWeb.com Line: Miami -16.5
Miami has had two weeks to sulk over the 31-7 loss at the hands of the Louisville Cardinals. In these teams' last meeting, in 2004, the Hurricanes handed UH a 25-point loss - but that was when Miami had confidence in its offense. Through three games, Kyle Wright has only thrown for 1 TD. On the other side, UH is on a high. The Cougars beat an undefeated, overrated Oklahoma State squad decisively last week. Senior QB Kevin Kolb is the sixth-most efficient QB in the nation and is ranked No. 4 in individual total offense. As a favorite last year the Hurricanes were 3-8; this year they are 0-1.
Pick: Houston

Virginia at Duke
WagerWeb.com Line: Virginia -5
Duke is the bottom-dweller of the ACC. Good for Virginia, because the Cavs will feed off the bottom of the ACC for their wins. UVa had a hard time moving the ball against Georgia Tech - but that was the same defense that held Notre Dame in check. Duke was 0-5 ATS at home last year. Duke has only scored in one of three games this season. The Cavaliers thwarted Duke 38-7 last year and have had 9 days to prepare for the Dukies. Al Groh's squad begins a stretch where his team could win 5 straight (Duke, East Carolina, Maryland, UNC, NC State) before a showdown with FSU. Look for at least a two-score win over the lowly Blue Devils.
Pick: UVA

Idaho at Utah State
WagerWeb.com Line: Idaho -3
Utah State has failed to score an offensive point this season - by default, the Aggies will lose this game. And to make matters worse (or better?), Utah State's offensive coordinator resigned on Monday. I'm not saying the Vandals are much better, but they can put up points. Idaho kept the game close with Michigan State on the road in Week 1, so it can step up. This is one of two games that Idaho won last year. And besides, the Vandals have had success against Utah State, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Pick: Idaho

Northern Illinois at Ball State
WagerWeb.com Line: NI -6
Ball State comes off its third straight loss - the last one to Division I-AA North Dakota State. I'm a believer that if you fall to a team in Division I-AA, your season is officially over (see Colorado). Garrett Wolfe, the nation's leading rusher, has found the end zone eight times in the past three games. Northern Illinois played well on the road last year, going 4-1-1 ATS in 2005. Look for NI to use momentum from its 48-14 beat-down of Indiana State to propel it to a three-touchdown win.
Pick: NI

Toledo at Pittsburgh
WagerWeb.com Line: Pitt -16.5
Tyler Palko has been the nation's most efficient passer, and Pitt went 4-1 ATS at home last year, and Toledo was 2-4 ATS on the road, but this line looks extraordinarily large. Toledo was a 10-point dog in 2003 and ended up winning the game outright. The Rockets play to their competition. They've had a pair of overtime contests already. Don't expect an upset, but do expect a cover.
Pick: Toledo

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 6-4

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