Top 25 Capsules For 09-30-2006 - College Football News And Picks

Top 25 Capsules For 09-30-2006
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 3:00 am PDT 2006-09-30

No. 23 Rutgers (4-0, 0-0 Big East) at South Florida (3-1, 0-0)
When: Friday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Rutgers -3 1/2
Storyline: Rutgers is in the Top 25 for the first time in 30 years. The Scarlet Knights will have to overcome the loss of starting wide receiver Shawn Tucker (broken ankle). South Florida's magic of comebacks ran out against Kansas last week. Freshman QB Matt Grothe did give the Bulls a chance to win in the final seconds. South Florida beat Rutgers, 45-31, last season at Rutgers Stadium.
Analysis: Rutgers was 0-3 as a road favorite last season. South Florida covered its first four games last season. Look for the short week, the travel and the fact the Scarlet Knights may be distracted by playing in an NFL stadium as factors. UPSET SPECIAL: South Florida 21, Rutgers 17.

No. 1 Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) at No. 13 Iowa (4-0, 1-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State - 7
Storyline: Somehow this is a battle of unbeatens. Ohio State deserves to be unbeaten. The Buckeyes' defense, particularly the secondary with two key interceptions, propelled Ohio State past Penn State last week. Iowa has been doing it with mirrors. Hawkeyes QB Drew Tate isn't flashy, but he's a gutsy winner. Two years ago, Tate passed for 331 yards and three TDs in a 33-7 upset of Ohio State.
Analysis: Ohio State has allowed only 8 points per game. Ohio State beat Iowa last year 31-6. The last time these two met in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes covered as a home dog. Ohio State 30, Iowa 10.

No. 3 USC (3-0, 1-0 Pac-10) at Washington State (3-1, 1-0)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -17
Storyline: USC has won a record 24 straight conference games, and 17 of them have come on the road. The Trojans will be without WR Dwayne Jarrett (sprained shoulder). USC QB John David Booty, who has completed 66 percent of his passes and recorded seven TDs, will miss him. USC freshman tailback Emmanuel Moody has emerged as the replacement for Reggie Bush, racking up 130 yards and one touchdown in Arizona.
Analysis: USC covered two larger numbers (29, 24) against Washington State in the past two years. But USC has failed to cover in its last two games. USC 44, Washington State 10.

Alabama (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at No. 5 Florida (4-0, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -15
Storyline: It shouldn't be much of a surprise that the Gators lead the SEC in passing touchdowns. But who would have guessed that the Florida defense has allowed only one rushing touchdown all season? Alabama came back to reality with a loss to Arkansas last week.
Analysis: The Gators are a bargain price here considering they failed to cover against Kentucky last week. And Florida has the revenge factor after last year's embarrassing 31-3 loss to the Tide. Florida 38, Alabama 17.

No. 6 Michigan (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) at Minnesota (2-2, 0-1)
When: Saturday 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan - 9 1/2
Storyline: The Wolverines will look to move up the rankings and recapture the Little Brown Jug in the oldest trophy game in the NCAA. Minnesota beat Michigan last season. The Michigan rushing defense is the stingiest in the country, allowing only 18.5 yards per game. The Golden Gophers were paced last week by running back Amir Pinnix, who had 173 yards on 28 carries.
Analysis: Michigan has failed to cover the spread in its past two meetings against Minnesota. But this season, the Wolverines are 3-1 against the spread. Minnesota is 9-1 against the spread in the month of September over the last three seasons. Michigan 35, Minnesota 14.

Sam Houston State (2-1) at No. 7 Texas (3-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: no line
Storyline: Texas gets a warmup here against I-AA Sam Houston State before facing Oklahoma in the "Red River" shootout. The Longhorns had mixed reviews on defense last week. Texas had seven sacks but gave up 274 yards of passing and two touchdowns in the air to Iowa State. The Bearkats fell to SMU 45-14 two weeks ago.
Analysis: Texas will try to stay healthy this week. But with so many young players it's hard for the Longhorns to not run up the score. Texas 59, Sam Houston State 10.

Mississippi State (1-3, 0-2) at No. 9 LSU (3-1, 0-1)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: LSU -33 1/2
Storyline: LSU QB JaMarcus Russell is far from textbook, but he's a winner -- 17-3 as a starter. For the Bulldogs, QB Omarr Conner became the third different starter last week against UAB. Conner didn't record a TD, but he didn't record an interception, either.
Analysis: The Tigers have covered four straight against the Bulldogs. LSU is also 2-0 as a home favorite this season. LSU 55, Mississippi 13.

No. 10 Georgia (4-0, 1-0) at Mississippi (1-3, 0-1)
When: Saturday, 9 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia -18
Storyline: The Bulldogs survived a scare against Colorado, winning 14-13 in the last minute. Georgia is winning with a defense that has only allowed two TDs all season. Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt is waiting to decide on which freshman QB, Joe Cox or Matthew Stafford, will start. Cox led the Bulldogs' comeback last week as Stafford struggled. The Rebels will stick with Brent Schaeffer at QB despite the fact he has more interceptions (5) than TDs (3).
Analysis: Georgia will need to have a strong defensive performance if it wants to cover this number. The Bulldogs have only given up 6.2 yards a game. Georgia 27, Mississippi 7.

No. 24 Georgia Tech (3-1, 1-0) at No. 11 Virginia Tech (4-0, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Va. Tech -10
Storyline: This could be the game of the day. Virginia Tech will be without defensive end Chris Ellis and wide receiver Josh Morgan for breaking team rules. Hokie running back Branden Ore ran for 152 of his 170 yards against Cincinnati in the second half last week. Georgia Tech has won three straight after falling to Notre Dame in the season opener. Yellow Jackets WR Calvin Johnson had six catches for 165 yards. On a better team, he'd be a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Analysis: Virginia Tech has been a favorite and has covered in the previous two meetings against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 2-0 against the spread this season. Georgia Tech 17, Virginia Tech 14.

Purdue (4-0) at No. 12 Notre Dame (3-1)
When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -14
Storyline: Notre Dame is coming off the improbable comeback at Michigan State. After starting out slow, QB Brady Quinn led the attack, throwing five TDs and 319 yards. Purdue finds itself undefeated with a balanced offensive attack. Boilermaker QB Curtis Painter completed 18-of-27 for 243 yards and two touchdowns in the 27-21 win over Minnesota.
Analysis: In its last trip to South Bend, Purdue pulled off a 41-16 upset. It was the Boilermakers' first win at Notre Dame since 1974. Notre Dame is an erratic 2-2 against the spread this season. Notre Dame 31, Purdue 14.

No. 14 Oregon (3-0, 1-0) at Arizona State (3-1, 0-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: ASU - 1 1/2
Storyline: Sun Devils coach Dirk Koetter worked under Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti for for two years in the 1990s. Last year, both teams were ranked and the Ducks spotted Arizona State a 10-point lead only to rally to a 31-17 victory. In that one, Oregon rolled up 512 yards of total offense. ASU suffered its first loss of the season last week against California. Oregon had the week off after its thriller against Oregon.
Analysis: Arizona State had won four straight against Oregon until last season. ASU is 0-3 against the spread this season. Something has to change. ASU 35, Oregon 31.

No. 15 Tennessee (3-1) at Memphis (1-2)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Tennessee -13
Storyline: After showing a strong passing game, Tennessee unleashed redshirt freshman RB LaMarcus Coker last week. Coker had a career-high 146 yards, with most of it coming on a 89-yard TD run. Memphis had a week off after losing to East Carolina, 35-20.
Analysis: Tennessee struggled last season to beat Memphis. The Vols are 3-1 against the spread this season, but this is their first road game. Tennessee 28, Memphis 10.

La. Tech (1-2) at No. 18 Clemson (3-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Clemson -33 1/2
Storyline: The Tigers are riding high after winning in Tallahassee against Florida State. Clemson leads the ACC in offense. Louisiana Tech gave Texas A&M some trouble last week, trailing only 14-7 at halftime.
Analysis: Clemson failed to cover twice last season as a favorite of more than 30 points. The Tigers have to expect a let down after two strong games. Clemson 40, La. Tech 10.

No. 20 California (3-1, 1-0) at Oregon State (2-1, 0-0)
When: Saturday, 4:05 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Cal -9 1/2
Storyline: Cal handily beat then-ranked Arizona State last week. After losing to Tennessee in the opener, the Bears have looked sharper. The main reason is the progress of QB Nate Longshore. Against ASU, Longshore threw for 270 yards and four TDs. The Beavers can forget about stopping Cal RB Marshawn Lynch, who had 124 yards last week.
Analysis: Last year, as a 16-point dog, Oregon State beat Cal straight up. The Bears will remember, and they have been better with each week. California 55, Oregon State 14.

Kansas (3-1) at No. 21 Nebraska (3-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -22 1/2
Storyline: The Cornhuskers will be thinking about last season's loss to the Jayhawks. Nebraska had won 36 straight against Kansas before then. Nebraska beat pesky Troy, 56-0, last week. Kansas squeaked out a win, holding off a last-minute charge by South Florida.
Analysis: Kansas has covered the last two meetings. Nebraska is 1-1 against the spread this season. The Cornhuskers are the second-highest team in the nation with 42.8 points a game and eighth in offense with 472.5 yards. Nebraska 44, Kansas 21.

No. 22 Boise State (4-0) at Utah (3-1)
When: Saturday, 3 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Utah - 5 1/2
Storyline: This could be the big hurdle for Boise State if it wants to run the table. Only one of the Broncos' four opponents so far has a winning record. Boise State running back Ian Johnson tallied 178 yards last week for his third straight 100-yard game. The Utes have been impressive in their last three after a season-opening loss to UCLA. Utah has won its last three games against ranked opponents.
Analysis: It may surprise some that Utah is a favorite here. It looks like a sucker's bet. Utah 42, Boise State 30.

Colorado (0-4, 0-2 Big 12) at No. 25 Missouri (4-0, 3-0)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Missouri -16
Storyline: Colorado nearly earned its first win last week at Georgia, losing in the last minute 14-13. Missouri joins the Top 25 for the first time since 2004. Last season, it was the Buffaloes who were ranked 25th and then thumped the Tigers, 41-12.
Analysis: The Missouri defense is No. 1 in the country allowing only 175.25 yards per game. But who have the Tigers played? Colorado is getting better each week.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Missouri 21, Colorado 17.

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