Top 25 Capsules For 10-07-2006 - College Football News And Picks

Top 25 Capsules For 10-06-2006
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 3:00 am PDT 2006-10-06

No. 8 Louisville (4-0) at Middle Tennessee State (3-2, 2-0)
When: Friday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Louisville -29 1/2
Storyline: Louisville is cruising along without running back Michael Bush (broken leg) and quarterback Brian Brohm (hand). The Cardinals have been relying on one of the 10 best defenses in the country. The Blue Raiders are making their national TV debut.
Analysis: MST is 0-10 against ranked teams. Louisville has only lost two games against unranked opponents under head coach Bobby Petrino. The Cardinals are perfect against the spread this season. But last year Louisville was 1-5 on the road against the spread. Louisville 42, Middle Tennessee State 14

Bowling Green (3-2, 2-1) at No. 1 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -36
Storyline: Ohio State will have to guard against a letdown after high-energy win over Iowa. The Buckeyes now own the longest winning streak (13) in the country. Buckeyes QB Troy Smith continued his Heisman Trophy run throwing four touchdowns against the Hawkeyes. Bowling Green has been outscored by its opponents 150-119 this season.
Analysis: The last time these two met, Bowling Green gave Ohio State a fit before losing 24-7. The Buckeyes are 5-0 against the spread this season. Ohio State 44. Bowling Green 12.

Arkansas (3-1, 2-0 SEC) at No. 2 Auburn (5-0, 3-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -15
Storyline: The Tigers stayed undefeated despite a scare at South Carolina. The Gamecocks had a chance to tie Auburn in the final seconds. Auburn's defense had a lapse against South Carolina, giving up 349 yards of total offense. Auburn will also have to worry about getting caught looking ahead to Florida next week. The Razorbacks come in riding a three-game winning streak.
Analysis: Auburn has covered the last three against Arkansas. The close call against South Carolina was the first time the Tigers failed to cover this season. Arkansas has covered the last four on the road. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Auburn 38, Arkansas 10.

Washington (4-1, 2-0 Pac-10) at No. 3 USC (4-0, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -19
Storyline: USC isn't blowing teams out this season but the Trojans are still winning. Trojan QB John David Booty threw two TDs last week and found another target. WR Steve Smith had a career-high 11 catches with Dwayne Jarrett on the sideline. Jarrett will be a game-time decision. The fact that Washington is winning is a surprise. Huskies QB Isaiah Stanback had two TDs and 293 yards passing in a victory over Arizona.
Analysis: USC has won the last four straight up. Last year was the first time in four years that the Huskies covered against USC. The Trojans have failed to cover their last three. USC 35, Washington 17

No. 4 West Virginia (4-0) at Mississippi State (1-4)
When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: West Virginia -21
Storyline: Here's another non-conference game for West Virginia, but some people might contend all of the Mountaineers' games are non-conference. West Virginia RB Steve Slaton is coming off a subpar performance against East Carolina where he only had 80 yards. LSU beat up on Mississippi State 48-17 last Saturday.
Analysis: Mississippi State has given up 30 or more points in the last three games while only scoring 12.5 per game. West Virginia, playing the softest schedule in the country, is averaging 41.5 points per game. The Mountaineers failed to cover for the first time win two weeks ago against East Carolina. LOCK OF THE WEEK II: West Virginia 44, Mississippi State 10

No. 9 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at No. 5 Florida (5-0, 3-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -1
Storyline: The Gators start a tough stretch of LSU, Auburn and Georgia in consecutive weeks. The Florida offense will face its toughest test of the season. The Gators will need QB Chris Leak to snap out of a mini-slump. The pressure will be on Leak with starting running back DeShawn Wynn (sprained knee) questionable. The Tigers will try to shut down Leak with one of the best secondaries in the country, led by free safety LaRon Landry. The LSU offense and QB JaMarcus Russell will need to put up more points than they did against Auburn.
Analysis: Florida hasn't covered in its last two games -- with one being a push last week against Alabama. LSU has covered every week except for its one loss against Auburn. LSU has won three of the last four straight up. UPSET SPECIAL: LSU 17, Florida 13

Michigan State (3-2, 0-1 Big Ten) at No. 6 Michigan (5-0, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan -15
Storyline: Michigan State nearly upset Notre Dame. Then the Spartans got Zooked by Illinois. Michigan has to worry about which Michigan State team might show up. The Spartans will be without starting RB Javon Ringer. Michigan State QB Drew Stanton left last week's game with bruised ribs and ego. Michigan reclaimed the Little Brown Jug behind a little workhorse in RB Mike Hart, who rolled up 195 yards on 31 carries.
Analysis: This is a rivalry game that has needed OT to decide the past two winners. Michigan has won four straight against Michigan State and covered in three of the four. The Wolverines are 5-0 against the spread this season. Michigan 28, Michigan State 17

No. 7 Texas (4-1, 1-0 Big 12) vs. No. 14 Oklahoma (3-1, 3-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. in Dallas
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -4
Storyline: It's the Red River Shootout. Does anything else need to be said? Texas' only blemish came at the hands of No. 1 Ohio State. Longhorns redshirt freshman QB Colt McCoy is maturing with every win. McCoy is currently ranked 8th among QBs in the country with 846 yards and 10 TDs. Oklahoma's only blemish came at the hands of the Pac-10 referees and Oregon. Sooners running back Adrian Peterson looks like a freshman again -- and that's a good thing. WR-turned-QB Paul Thompson will be tested in this one by a speedy Texas secondary.
Analysis: Texas finally ended the stranglehold that Oklahoma had on them last season with a 45-12 victory. The Longhorns (a 14-point favorite) even covered for the first time in four years. Oklahoma 27, Texas 21

No. 13 Tennessee (4-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 9 Georgia (5-0, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Tennessee -2
Storyline: Nobody in Athens would have thought that the return of Georgia QB Joe Tereshinski III would be welcomed. But the Bulldogs' offense has struggled since he got hurt in the second game of the season. The Tennessee offense has been clicking with QB Erik Ainge getting plenty of time to throw. The offensive line has only given up four sacks. The Vols get back RB Arian Foster, who missed the last two games with an ankle injury.
Analysis: When these two meet "Between the Hedges" it's always a close game. Georgia has owned Tennessee of late, winning five of the last six. Last year, the Vols were a 3-point favorite and failed to cover at home. Tennessee 24, Georgia 21

No. 11 Oregon (4-0, 2-0 Pac-10) at No. 20 California (4-1, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: California - 5
Storyline: California has been on a roll since being rocked by Tennessee in the season opener. Oregon showed last week it's for real with a convincing 48-13 win over then-ranked Arizona State. Both offenses are explosive. Oregon's is ranked fourth in the nation. California is ninth. Bears RB Marshawn Lynch could be the difference. Lynch scored three touchdowns last week.
Analysis: Oregon has owned Cal, winning eight of the last nine meetings. The Ducks have also covered in the last three meetings between the two. Cal has covered its last three games. Cal 55, Oregon 47

Stanford (0-5) at No. 12 Notre Dame (4-1)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -29
Storyline: The Irish come in with a disappointing defense, which is ranked 92nd in the country. But Stanford is worse, at 117th, The Irish have allowed 372 yards per game while the Cardinals' matador approach has given up 458.8 yards. The Irish will look to work on their rushing attack, which has been dismal. The Irish are 107th in rushing with only an average of 75 yards per game.
Analysis: Notre Dame failed to cover against Stanford on the road last year as a 15-point favorite. Bettors have been getting mixed returns from the Irish. 29 points is a bunch to give. Notre Dame 40, Stanford 14.

No. 15 Clemson (4-1, 2-1 ACC) at Wake Forest (5-0, 1-0 ACC)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Clemson -16 1/2
Storyline: Wake Forest is undefeated. No, this isn't a typo. The Demon Deacons are the only unbeaten ACC team, yet they are not ranked. Clemson might be the best team. Had it not been for a blocked extra point at BC, the Tigers would surely be ranked in the Top 10.
Analysis: Wake Forest has topped Clemson straight up in three of its last four meetings and covered in the last four. Clemson is 4-1 against the spread this season. Clemson 42, Wake Forest 14

Maryland (3-1, 0-1 ACC) at No. 18 Georgia Tech (4-1, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia Tech -14
Storyline: Georgia Tech leaps into the Top 25 after impressive win over Virginia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have been red hot behind the play of QB Reggie Ball and WR Calvin Johnson. Maryland had a bye week after barely beating FIU, 14-10.
Analysis: The Yellow Jackets could be in for a letdown. But Georgia Tech has covered against Maryland in their last two meetings. Georgia Tech 38, Maryland 10.

Purdue (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at No. 19 Iowa (4-1, 1-1)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Iowa -11
Storyline: Two teams with identical records coming off similar defeats. Iowa fell to Ohio State at home despite hanging tough for one half. Iowa QB Drew Tate threw three interceptions in the loss. Purdue lost its first game of the year, to Notre Dame. Boilermakers QB Curtis Painter tops the Big Ten in passing. The sophomore threw for 398 yards against the Irish last week.
Analysis: The Hawkeyes have covered the last two times against the Boilermakers. Iowa is 2-2 against the spread this season. Purdue will find out that Iowa has a better defense than Notre Dame. Iowa 24, Purdue 17

La. Tech (1-3, 0-3 WAC) at No. 20 Boise State (5-0, 1-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Boise State -36
Storyline: Boise State and running back Ian Johnson might be the best-kept secrets in college football. Boise State is looking at an undefeated season and will not get invited to a BCS bowl game. Johnson is quietly putting together a Heisman-worthy campaign. He has rushed for 714 yards and nine TDs. Look for him to have another big game as La. Tech gave up 393 yards of rushing to Clemson last week.
Analysis: La Tech has lost 51-0, 45-14, and 49-10 this season. Why should this week be any different? Boise State 56, La. Tech 10

No. 22 Nebraska (4-1, 1-0 Big 12) at Iowa State (3-2, 0-1)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -6 1/2
Storyline: Nebraska held on to defeat Kansas in OT after giving up a 17-point lead. Cornhuskers QB Zac Taylor had a breakout game, throwing for 398 yards and four TDs But the Nebraska defense gave up an alarming 574 yards to the Jayhawks. Iowa State has lost to its previous two ranked opponents (Texas and Iowa) this season.
Analysis: Nebraska has failed to cover in its last two trips to Ames. Nebraska is 1-1 against the spread this season. Iowa State is 0-2 against the spread against ranked teams this season. Nebraska 35, Iowa State 17.

No. 23 Missouri (5-0, 1-0) at Texas Tech (4-1, 1-0)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas Tech -5
Storyline: Missouri's perfect record and its defense will be put to the test against an explosive Texas Tech offense. Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell will look to exploit a banged-up Tigers secondary. The Tigers do have the second-best defense in the country on paper, but who have they played? Missouri RB Tony Temple may find it tough running against a stingy Texas Tech run defense.
Analysis: Missouri opponents thus far have a 6-19 record. Texas Tech on the road will be too much for the Tigers. Texas Tech 42, Missouri 28

Lock of the week picks: 6-1-0
Last week against the spread: 6-8-2
Overall against the spread record: 49-35-3

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