NCAA Picks: Week 7 For 10-14-2006 - College Football News And Picks

NCAA Picks: Week 7 For 10-13-2006
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 6:00 am PDT 2006-10-14

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -14
Storyline: Ohio State will try to avoid an upset. And that may be the only way Michigan State head coach John L. Smith can save his job. After a loss to Illinois, the Spartans have been getting progressively worse each week. MSU will be without RB Javon Ringer and WR Matt Trannon. Spartans QB Drew Stanton spent most of last year's game on his back as Ohio State sacked him 12 times. The Buckeyes are rolling behind the QB Troy Smith/ WR Ted Ginn Jr. combination.

Analysis: In 1998, Michigan State upset then-No. 1 Ohio State. Not this year. The Buckeyes' defense is No. 1 in fewest points allowed. It should be a long day for the Spartans. Ohio State 38, Michigan State 10

No. 11 Auburn (5-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 2 Florida (6-0, 4-0)

When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -2
Storyline: Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville says his team doesn't have time to dwell on last week's upset loss to Arkansas. This could spell bad news for Florida, which has a target on its back after beating LSU last week. The Gators steamrolled up the rankings like Tim Tebow bowling through the Florida offensive line. QB Chris Leak is still the starter, and Florida will need him to find the end zone if it wants to keep the ranking. Auburn isn't as bad as it looked last week. With RB Kenny Irons and QB Brandon Cox, this will be the best offense the Gators have faced all season.

Analysis: Florida has beat Auburn straight up in eight of the last nine games. Florida has covered two straight, and Auburn has failed to cover the last two. Florida 21, Auburn 17

Arizona State (3-2, 0-2 Pac-10) at No. 3 USC (5-0, 3-0)

When: Saturday, 8 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -19
Storyline: USC continues to win close games. And that hasn't detoured the oddsmakers from making the Trojans two-touchdown favorites again. USC QB John David Booty has 11 TD passes and only three interceptions. His playmakers, Dwayne Jarrett (shoulder) and Steve Smith (ankle) are both nicked up but expected to play. The running backs, Chauncey Washington, Emmanuel Moody and C.J. Gable, have done a respectable job but all of them combined are no Reggie Bush. Arizona State has not rebounded from offseason controversy. QB Rudy Carpenter got the nod but hasn't proved it, throwing five interceptions and only two TDs.

Analysis: Will this be the game that the USC offense that showed up against Arkansas in the season opener reappears? Matt Leinart and the boys failed to cover against Arizona State last year as a 15-point favorite. But ASU is really reeling. USC 42, Arizona State 21.

No. 4 Michigan (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) at Penn State (4-2, 2-1)

When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan -5.5
Storyline: Michigan has risen up the rankings with a tough run game and a new blocking scheme. Wolverines RB Mike Hart is averaging 5.1 a carry, but the Penn State defense is only allowing 2.6 yards a carry. Something must give. Michigan will be without WR Mario Manningham (knee surgery), who caught the game-winner against the Nittany Lions last year. Penn State also relies on the run. RB Tony Hunt tallied 144 yards and two TDs in the overtime win over Minnesota.

Analysis: Michigan has failed to cover in its last two meetings against Penn State. The Wolverines have covered four straight this season. Penn State has covered the last five times at home. Michigan 24, Penn State 23

Syracuse (3-3, 0-1 Big East) at No. 5 West Virginia (5-0, 3-0)

When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: West Virginia -25
Storyline: West Virginia has to be feeling a little shunned right now. All the Mountaineers do is win, and they still drop in the rankings. The Orange may get squeezed because of West Virginia's neglect. Mountaineers RB Steve Slaton continues to dominate. The sophomore is third in the country in rushing per game with a 153.6-yard average. Syracuse QB Perry Peterson will need to be even better than last week. Against Pitt, Peterson was 20-for-29 passing with one touchdown. Last year, West Virginia held Syracuse to 18 yards of rushing.

Analysis: West Virginia has won four straight against Syracuse, but that doesn't matter. Look for the Mountaineers to run, run, run it up. West Virginia 48, Syracuse 7

Baylor (3-3, 2-0 Big 12) at No. 6 Texas (5-1, 2-0)

When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -27
Storyline: Who needs Vince Young when you've got Colt McCoy? Texas' freshman QB has thrown two TD passes in each of the past four games. McCoy has 12 TD passes on the season and only two interceptions. He led Texas to a decisive win over Oklahoma last week. Baylor is undefeated in conference play. But is beating Colorado and Kansas State a measuring stick? The Bears will rely on a new passing scheme and will miss WR Terrance Parks (26 catches for 217 yards), who was suspended indefinitely. Baylor is ninth in the country in passing offense.

Analysis: Texas has outscored Baylor 362-38 in seven games under Mack Brown. The Longhorns defense looked solid against Oklahoma. Look for much of the same. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Texas 33, Baylor 17

Cincinnati (3-3, 0-1 Big East) at No. 7 Louisville (5-0, 2-0)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Louisville - 24.5
Storyline: Louisville QB Brian Brohm says his thumb is ready to go. But the Cardinals shouldn't risk anything against the lowly Bearcats. Hunter Cantwell has filled in admirably for Brohm, who hasn't played in a month. Cantwell threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in a victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. Cincinnati looked flat last week in win over Akron. The Bearcats will need to be sharper if they want to claim the Keg of Nails Trophy.

Analysis: The Cardinals have covered three straight against Cincinnati, including two 3 TD spreads in the last two years. Louisville failed to cover last week against Middle Tennessee State, but that was a larger number. Louisville 38, Cincinnati 17.

No. 10 California (4-1, 2-0 Pac-10) at Washington State (4-2, 2-1)

When: Saturday, 5 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: California - 8
Storyline: California could be the hottest team in the country. The Bears throttled Arizona State last week. Cal's offense is ranked 10th in the nation. Bears QB Nate Longshore has 17 TD passes and only five interceptions. RB Marshawn Lynch leads the Pac-10 in rushing with 100.8 yards per game. Washington State's winning record is a tribute to its defense. In last week's win over Oregon State, the Cougars only gave up two field goals.

Analysis: This is the third top-10 team Washington State has faced this season. The Cougars covered against USC but not against Auburn. Cal has covered four in a row since its opening loss to Tennessee. Cal 42, Washington State 17

Kentucky (3-3, 1-2 SEC) at No. 14 LSU (4-2, 1-2)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: LSU - 26
Storyline: LSU got stymied at Florida last week, scoring only 10 points in the Swamp. The last time these two met, Kentucky fans stormed the field thinking they won the game only to see Devery Henderson catch a tipped pass and score on a 75-yard play.

Analysis: LSU has scored no fewer than 45 points at home this season. LSU is 3-0 against the spread at home. LSU 42, Kentucky 21.

No. 15 Iowa (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at Indiana (3-3, 1-1)

When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Iowa -19.5
Storyline: Iowa shook off its first loss of the season by beating up on Purdue last week. RB Damian Sims ran for 155 yards and two touchdowns starting in place of injured Albert Young. QB Drew Tate also had a couple of TD passes for the Hawkeyes. Indiana rallied to beat Illinois on a Austin Starr field goal. Hoosiers sophomore Marcus Thigpen had a 98-yard kickoff return TD last week.

Analysis: Minus the Ohio State game, Iowa has covered three of its last four games. The Hawkeyes also covered against Indiana as a 16-point favorite last season. Iowa 33, Indiana 21

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3 SEC) at No. 16 Georgia (5-1, 2-1)

When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia -14
Storyline: The Georgia defense gave up more points last week (51) against Tennessee than it had all season. The lone bright spot for the Bulldogs were returns for TDs by Mikey Henderson (86-yard punt return) and Thomas Brown (99-yard kickoff return). QB Joe Tereshinski returned but maybe should've stayed on the bench. He had only one TD pass, two interceptions and a fumble. Vanderbilt QB Chris Nickerson is expected to play despite a sore thigh.

Analysis: The Bulldogs have covered three of the last four years against Vandy. Georgia has covered spreads of -24 and -25 the last two home meetings against the Commodores. The Georgia D should cover this spread. Georgia 28, Vanderbilt 10.

Southwest Missouri State (3-2) at No. 17 Arkansas (4-1)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: no line
Storyline: Arkansas coach Houston Nutt saved his job with last week's upset of Auburn. The Razorbacks are undefeated since losing their opener to USC. Arkansas freshman QB Mitch Mustain isn't amazing people -- last week he was 7-for-10 passing and only 87 yards -- but he's doing the little things right. Southwest Missouri State will be bringing some heat to Mustain. Six-foot-five defensive end Edgar Jones has nine sacks this year.

Analysis: Arkansas is set for a letdown. Luckily the Razorbacks have the I-AA Redhawks on the schedule. Look for Mustain to have his best game of the season, which will go a long way to building his confidence. Arkansas 35, Southwest Missouri State 13

UCLA (4-1, 2-1 Pac-10) at No. 18 Oregon (4-1, 2-1)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oregon - 8.5
Storyline: The Ducks suffered their first defeat last week to California. Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart was held to only 25 yards against the Bears. Ducks QB Dennis Dixon threw three picks last week. UCLA will be without Ben Olson at QB. Pat Cowan get his first career start. Last week, Cowan finished with 20-for-29 passing and two TDs. The Bruins will depend on a defense that is allowing only 12 points per game.

Analysis: Oregon is ninth in the country in scoring. Sophomore QB Cowan getting his first start for UCLA could result in a few turnovers. Oregon 28, UCLA 17

No. 19 Missouri (6-0, 2-0 Big 12) at Texas A&M (5-1, 1-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Missouri -1.5
Storyline: Missouri is off to its best start since 1973. Texas A&M only has one loss, coming to Texas Tech. Missouri beat Texas Tech last weekend on the strength of two first-half defensive TDs. Tigers QB Chase Daniel has been impressive, throwing for 1,446 yards and 14 TDs. Missouri will have to worry about Texas A&M's double threat -- Stephen McGee. The sophomore has 1,163 yards passing and 291 yards rushing.

Analysis: Missouri has won the last two meetings between the two. Texas A&M is 8-4 against the spread at home in the last two seasons. The Tigers were 1-1 as a road favorite last season. Missouri 27, Texas A&M 21.

No. 22 Nebraska (5-1, 2-0 Big 12) at Kansas State (4-2, 1-1)
When: Saturday, 7:10 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -8.5
Storyline: Nebraska has lost four straight trips to Kansas State. The Cornhuskers are coming off a 28-14 road win at Iowa State. RB Cody Glenn rushed for 147 yards and two TDs. Nebraska is 8th in the country in rushing with 210.7 yards per game. Behind RB Leon Patton, Kansas State rallied to beat Oklahoma State last week. Patton had 158 yards rushing and returned a kickoff 95 yards.

Analysis: Kansas State has covered in its last four meetings with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 2-0 covering the spread on the road. Nebraska 38, Kansas State 24

Iowa State (3-3, 0-2 Big 12) at No. 23 Oklahoma (3-2, 0-1)

When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oklahoma - 19.5
Storyline: The Sooners got manhandled by Texas last week. Iowa State has run into nothing but buzz-saws of late, playing its fourth ranked opponent in five weeks. The big story is that Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson will see his father in the stands for the first time in his career. Peterson's father has been in prison the last seven years. Adrian Peterson is fourth in the country with 150 yards per game.

Analysis: This looks like a lot of points, but after being embarrassed by Texas last week, Oklahoma should come out angry. Iowa State has yet to cover against a ranked opponent this season. The Cyclones have failed to cover the last two times against the Sooners. Oklahoma 42, Iowa State 17.

No. 24 Rutgers (5-0) at Navy (5-1)

When: Saturday, 1:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Navy -3
Storyline: Rutgers slips into the Top 25 and it's not even the favorite in this game. If Rutgers keeps winning it will most likely lose Coach Greg Schiano (Miami's next head coach?). The Scarlet Knights are back after surviving a scare at South Florida. The Bulls had a chance to win in the final seconds. Rutgers RB Ray Rice rushed for 202 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Midshipmen are led on the ground by QB Brian Hampton, who is averaging 107.5 yards per game.

Analysis: Rutgers has been living the charmed life. Once again, despite their record, the Scarlet Knights are a road dog. As a road dog in the last two years, Rutgers is 0-4. Navy 27, Rutgers 24

Minnesota (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) at No. 25 Wisconsin (5-1, 2-1)

When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Wisconsin -8
Storyline: Paul Bunyan's Axe is at stake here. The Badgers roll into the Top 25 on the back of RB P.J. Hill. The redshirt freshman is coming off a season-high 249 yards against Northwestern. The Gophers could be in trouble. Minnesota is 98th in rushing defense, allowing 164.3 yards per game. Minnesota has lost three straight -- all to Big Ten opponents. Gophers QB Bryan Cupito has 11 TDs with only three picks.

Analysis: Minnesota has failed to cover in its last four meetings with Wisconsin. Badgers QB John Stocco, a Minnesota native, boasts a 14-1 record at home. Wisconsin 38, Minnesota 27

Lock of the week picks (season): 7-2-0
Last week against the spread: 12-11
Overall against the spread record: 61-46-3

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