Week 8 NCAA Previews/Picks - College Football News, Tips And Picks

Week 8 NCAA Previews/Picks
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 11:00 am PDT 2006-10-20

No. 4 West Virginia (6-0, 1-0 Big East) at Connecticut (3-3, 1-0)
When: Friday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: West Virginia -23
Storyline: West Virginia moved up in the rankings but not as far as it should have. The Mountaineers struggled in the first half against Syracuse before blowing out the Orange. West Virginia found a new rushing threat in quarterback Pat White. Against Syracuse, White rushed for 247 yards and three touchdowns. RB Steve Slaton looked like a slouch with "only" 163 yards and one touchdown last week. This isn't a good sign for Connecticut, which has allowed 177.2 yards per game rushing, second-worst in the Big East. The Huskies will try to control the clock with RB Terry Caulley, who is averaging 98 yards per game.
Analysis: Connecticut is No. 5 in the country in pass defense but No. 105 in rushing defense, and West Virginia is No. 1 in rushing offense. The Mountaineers just missed covering a 25-point spread last week. West Virginia has only failed to reach 40 points once this season, while Connecticut hasn't given up 40 points. West Virginia 38, Connecticut 14.

Indiana (4-3, 2-1 Big Ten) at No. 1 Ohio State (7-0, 3-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -30.5
Storyline: Indiana pulled off one its biggest wins in the past 20 years with an upset of Iowa. Ohio State continued to roll to the deserving No. 1 ranking in both AP and the first BCS poll of the season. Buckeyes RB Antonio Pittman is nursing a sore ankle. Pittman has been slowed, recording only 108 yards in the past two games after gaining 100 yards in the first four games of the season. Buckeyes QB Troy Smith has been nearly perfect this season, tossing 17 TD passes and only two interceptions. Indiana will need another big game from WR James Hardy, who caught three TDs last week against Iowa. RB Marcus Thigpen, who left with a leg injury last week, is expected to start.
Analysis: Ohio State has been a bettors' dream this season, going 7-0 against the spread. The Buckeyes might have a let down since is the first time anyone can remember that the game will not be televised. Ohio State 42, Indiana 14.

Iowa (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) at No. 2 Michigan (7-0, 4-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan -12.5
Storyline: With four No. 2s being knocked off this season already, Michigan might regret this lofty ranking. The Hawkeyes present the toughest challenge for the Wolverines until their season-ending matchup against No. 1 Ohio State. Iowa is a bit dazed after falling to Indiana last week. Michigan's defense has been impressive this season, allowing only 95 points thus far, and recording seven sacks last week against Penn State. Iowa QB Drew Tate doesn't like to hear the news that Michigan knocked out two Nittany Lions QBs last week. Tate threw for 292 yards last week, his season high.
Analysis: Five of the past seven meetings between these two have been decided by six points or less, including the Wolverines' 23-20 OT win last season. Last week was the first time Michigan failed to score at least 20 points in a game. Michigan 35, Iowa 17.

No. 5 Texas (6-1, 3-0 Big 12) at No. 17 Nebraska (6-1, 3-0)
When: Saturday, noon.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -5
Storyline: Texas has climbed back into the national title hunt on the arm of QB Colt McCoy. The redshirt freshman set a school record with six TD passes last week against Baylor. Texas ranks second in the country in scoring with 42.4. Nebraska isn't far behind --eighth in the country with 37.0. Both defenses have given up less than 14 points per game. Texas is first in the country in rush defense. The Longhorns allowed Baylor only 27 yards last week. Nebraska boasts the 11th best rushing offense with 207.7. The Cornhuskers have been doing it with a pair of RBs. Both Cody Glenn and Marlon Lucky have scored six TDs
Analysis: These two haven't met since 2003, when Texas won 31-7. Texas has won in its past two trips to Lincoln. The Longhorns have covered all but once this season (Week 2 against Ohio State) Texas 42, Nebraska 28.
No. 6 Louisville (6-0, 1-0 Big East) at Syracuse (3-4, 2-0)
When: Saturday, noon.
WagerWeb.com odds: Louisville -17.5
Storyline: Louisville QB Brian Brohm looked rusty after missing three games with a thumb injury. The Cardinals scored only 23 points against Cincinnati, their lowest output of the year, and Brohm had one TD pass and one interception. And the Louisville rushing attack, minus Michael Bush (broken leg in season opener), finally got bogged down against Cincinnati. The Cards managed only 105 yards on the ground. Syracuse will give up some yards on the ground. In their 41-14 loss to West Virginia, the Orange gave up 457 yards.
Analysis: The Cardinals have an off-week before starting a stretch that includes West Virginia and Rutgers, so don't look for a letdown here. If anything they had their letdown last week. Look for explosive Louisville offense that had averaged 46 points through the first five games to reappear. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Louisville 54, Syracuse 17.

Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at No. 7 Tennessee (5-1, 1-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Tennessee -11
Storyline: The Volunteers haven't played since a huge victory at Georgia. After scoring 51 against the Bulldogs, Tennessee will probably at least quadruple last year's total against the Crimson Tide. The 6-3 loss at Alabama last season is the main reason offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe resurfaced in Knoxville. Last season, Tennessee reached 30 points once. This season under Cutcliffe, the Vols have been held under 30 points just once (against Florida). QB Erik Ainge, with 1,657 yards passing and 14 TD passes, has been the biggest beneficiary. Bama RB Ken Darby had a season-high 162 yards in OT win over Ole Miss.
Analysis: Tennessee is 5-1 against the spread. After not covering a single game at home last season, the Vols are 3-1 against the spread this season. Tennessee 33, Alabama 10.

Tulane (2-4) at No. 8 Auburn (5-1, 3-1 SEC)
When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -32
Storyline: Auburn upset then-No. 2 Florida with 19 unanswered points. The Tigers also won without scoring an offensive touchdown. By causing two crucial turnovers, Auburn's defense, the fifth-stingiest defense in the country in allowing only 12.1 points per game, beat the Gators. The Tigers' offense has a pretty good chance to get on track against Tulane, which has allowed 35.7 points per game. The Green Wave defense has also surrendered 411 yards of offense per game. Tulane also had five turnovers in a loss last week to UTEP.
Analysis: Tulane got drummed by LSU, 49-7. The Tigers' offense hasn't scored in six quarters, but should get healthy here. Auburn 48, Tulane 10
UCLA (4-2) at No. 10 Notre Dame (5-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -13
Storyline: Notre Dame and UCLA haven't faced each other in 32 years. The Irish are rested from a bye week after handily beating Stanford. Notre Dame rolled up 436 yards of offense against the Cardinal. QB Brady Quinn has the Irish 12th in passing offense with 291 yards per game. UCLA's only two losses have come on the road. QB Patrick Cowan gets his second straight start. Ben Olsen (knee) is expected to be out until Oct. 28.
Analysis: The Irish are 25-5 straight up after a bye week in the last 30 years. Notre Dame is 3-1 as a home favorite. UCLA is 1-6 against the spread in the last seven on the road. Notre Dame 33, UCLA 17.

Washington (4-3, 2-2 Pac-10) at No. 11 California (6-1, 4-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: California -23.5
Storyline: Bears QB Nate Longshore had a sluggish performance, but Cal continues to win. Longshore went without a TD pass for the first time against Washington State while tossing two interceptions. RB Marshawn Lynch picked up the slack, rushing for a season-high 152 yards. Washington lost to Oregon State and lost starting QB Isaiah Stanback (foot surgery) at the same time. Junior Carl Bonnell will get the start. Bonnell went 2-for-6 in relief last week.
Analysis: Cal has covered five straight against the spread. The Bears have covered three of the last four against Washington. Cal 42, Washington 17
No. 13 Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-0) at No. 12 Clemson (6-1, 3-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Clemson -7.5
Storyline: Georgia Tech and Clemson lead their respective ACC divisions and could face each other again in Jacksonville at the end of the regular season. Clemson is the highest-scoring team in the nation with 43.9 points per game. RB James Davis is tied for the lead in TDs with 14. Georgia Tech will try to counter with WR Calvin Johnson who has eight TD catches this season.
Analysis: Clemson has covered two of the last three, including the last two meetings at home against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have covered both contests against ranked teams this season. Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 28.

Fresno State (1-5) at No. 14 LSU (5-2)
When: Saturday, 9 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: LSU -33
Storyline: LSU has been destroying unranked opponents. The Tigers' only two losses have come to Auburn and Florida. The Tigers' defense is No. 1 in yards allowed and No. 2 in points allowed. On offense, QB JaMarcus Russell has come through in the clutch with 13 TD passes and only 4 INTs. Fresno State has lost five straight. QB Sean Norton throw for three TDs in relief of starter Tom Brandstater. Norton, a sophomore, will get the start.
Analysis: Hawaii hung 70 points on Fresno State last week. The Tigers have scored at least 45 points in all five games against unranked opponents. LSU 55, Fresno State 12.

Mississippi (2-5, 1-3 SEC) at No. 15 Arkansas (4-1, 3-0)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Arkansas -21
Storyline: Arkansas has taken the pressure off freshman QB Mitch Mustain by dominating the ground game. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in rushing with 235 yards per game. The RB tandem of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones has carried the load. Mustain does have a TD pass in each of his five starts and, oh by the way, the Razorbacks are undefeated with the freshman barking the signals. Ole Miss will need a healthy RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who left during the fourth quarter of last week's OT loss to Alabama.
Analysis: Arkansas has won four out of the last five against Mississippi. But Ole Miss beat a ranked Arkansas team in 2003 for the only win. Arkansas 27, Mississippi 20.

No. 16 Oregon (5-1, 3-1 Big 12) at Washington State (4-3, 2-2)
When: Saturday, 5 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oregon -3.5
Storyline: Oregon bounced back from its only loss with a win over UCLA last week. Washington State fell to California, but it did hold the Bears scoreless in the second half. The Cougars had 350 yards of offense last week but only three points to show for it. Last season against Cougars, the Ducks overcame 11 points to win on a last second field goal. Oregon is third in the Pac-10.
Analysis: Oregon has traveled to Pullman, Wash., six of the past seven years, but the Ducks have only lost once. Oregon 28, Washington State 21

No. 18 Boise State (7-0, 3-0 WAC) at Idaho (4-3, 3-0)
When: Saturday, 5:05 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Boise State -21
Storyline: Boise State held on for an unimpressive 40-28 victory over lowly New Mexico State last Sunday. RB Ian Johnson had four TDs and now has 14 on the season, which is tied for the lead in the country. Boise's offense is sixth in the country in scoring. Idaho first-year head coach Dennis Erickson has the Vandals looking for their first winning season in seven years. Idaho is undefeated in WAC play after starting the season 1-3. You have to love the name of Idaho's home stadium: Kibbie Dome.
Analysis: The Broncos have covered in the past two games against the Vandals. Boise is 0-2 as a road favorite this season. Boise also needs to continue to impress the pollsters. Boise State 34, Idaho 17.

No. 19 Rutgers (6-0, 1-0 Big East) at Pittsburgh (6-1, 2-0)
When: Saturday, 5:45 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Pittsburgh -6.5
Storyline: Dave Wannstedt's second season at Pitt has been much smoother. He has been pointing to the matchup against Rutgers as a measuring stick. The Panthers' offense is clicking, ranked 8th in scoring. Pitt QB Tyler Palko has completed 70 percent of his passes this season. Rutgers is coming off its second shutout of the season and leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 8.3 points per game.
Analysis: Talk about getting no respect. This marks the third straight week that Rutgers enters a game against an unranked opponent and is an underdog. And Rutgers has won both games, over Navy and South Florida, straight up. But Pitt is 7-0 against the spread at home against conference foes. UPSET SPECIAL: Pittsburgh 28, Rutgers 21.

Colorado (1-6, 1-1 Big 12) at No. 20 Oklahoma (4-2, 1-1)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oklahoma -14
Storyline: Oklahoma will begin life without A.D. --Adrian Peterson (broken collarbone). RB Allen Patrick will get the start for the Sooners. QB Paul Thompson has completed 60 percent of his passes after a rocky start. Colorado snapped a 10-game losing streak with a 30-6 win over Texas Tech. Buffs QB Bernard Jackson was 11-for-17 in passing and had two TDs. In 2004, Oklahoma beat Colorado 42-3 and Peterson had 172 yards and three TDs.
Analysis: Oklahoma has won four straight against Colorado and outscored the Buffs 132-41. Oklahoma has covered two of the past three against Colorado. Oklahoma 32, Colorado 17.

No. 21 Wisconsin (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) at Purdue (5-2, 2-1)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Wisconsin -6.5
Storyline: Wisconsin will continue to lean on freshman horse P.J. Hill, who is second in the country in rushing with 1,011 yards. Purdue will try to air it out with QB Curtis Painter, who is averaging 327.1 yards passing per game. But Wisconsin QB John Stocco could be in store for a big game against a porous Boilermaker defense.
Analysis: The Badgers are 16-5 against the spread as favorites. Purdue is a dismal 2-10 against the spread in the month of October. Wisconsin 32, Purdue 20.

No. 22 Boston College (5-1, 2-1 ACC) at Florida State (4-2, 2-2)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: no line (due to Matt Ryan's status)
Storyline: Is there a better story than Boston College walk-on kicker Steve Aponavicius, who had two field goals and was perfect on extra points. But with QB Matt Ryan, the leading passer in the ACC, questionable with a foot injury, the B.C. offense might struggle against FSU's defense. Seminoles linebacker Geno Hayes is doubtful (sprained ligaments). FSU's offense has scored 30 points per game but when it has counted --against ranked opponents --the Noles have only averaged 16.5 points.
Analysis: Doak Campbell Stadium is the advantage here for the Seminoles. FSU is 1-1 against the spread in games against ranked opponents this season. The Golden Eagles are 2-0 against the spread in games against ranked opponents. Florida State 24, Boston College 21.

No. 23 Texas A&M (6-1, 2-1 Big 12) at Oklahoma State (4-2, 1-1)
When: Saturday, 7:05 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oklahoma State -3.5
Storyline: Texas A&M sneaks into the Top 25 after upending Missouri. The Aggies will try to pound the Cowboys with a dose of 265-pound fullback Jorvorskie Lane, who is averaging 4.7 yards a carry. Last season, Lane ran for a career-high 139 yards and three TDs in 62-23 win over Oklahoma State. But the Cowboys were without QB Bobby Reid in the embarrassing loss. Last week against Kansas, Reid threw for 411 yards and five TDs

Analysis: Texas A&M is 5-19 as a road underdog. Oklahoma State has a three-game home winning streak. Texas A&M 21 Oklahoma State 18.

Kansas State (4-3, 1-2 Big 12) at No. 24 Missouri (6-1, 1-2)
When: Saturday, 2 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Missouri -14.5
Storyline: Missouri fell for the first time last week against Kansas State. Three turnovers spelled doom for the Tigers. QB Chase Daniel was 21-for-29 passing with one TD. The Tigers have been balanced on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 20 on offense and defense. Wildcats freshman QB Josh Freeman threw for 277 yards against Nebraska last week. Kansas State started out 3-0 under first-year coach Ron Prince but is 1-3 in the past four.
Analysis: Missouri has lost 13 straight against Kansas State. The Wildcats are 0-2 against ranked opponents this season and have been held to 9 points in those two games.

Lock of the week picks (season): 7-3-0
Last week against the spread: 9-8
Overall against the spread record: 70-54-3

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