Top 25 Previews & Picks For 10-28-2006 - College Football News, Tips And Picks

Top 25 Previews & Picks For 10-28-2006
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2006-10-28

Minnesota (3-5, 0-4 Big Ten) at No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State - 27
Storyline: The Buckeyes are the undisputed best team in the country. Minnesota may be the undisputed worst team in the Big Ten. Even Illinois has a win in conference play. Ohio State's Troy Smith continues to improve his NFL stock (21 TDs, only two interceptions and a Heisman Trophy in the waiting). WR Ted Ginn Jr. is finally living up to the hype. Can the Michigan game (Nov. 18) get here soon enough? Minnesota might be asking, can the end of the season get here soon enough? Good news for the Gophers. They did snap a four-game losing streak with a whopping one-point win over North Dakota State. Former Buckeye and current Minnesota coach Glen Mason probably wishes he never left Columbus.
Analysis: Ohio State is simply perfect, going 8-0 against the spread this season. Minnesota is minced-meat, going 1-4-1 against the spread, and worst yet 0-4 against Big Ten foes against the spread. Keep riding the hot team. Ohio State 48, Minnesota 14

Northwestern (2-6, 0-4 Big Ten) at No. 2 Michigan (8-0, 5-0)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan -30
Storyline: Northwestern has to feel sick after allowing Michigan State to make history, coming back from a 38-3 deficit. The Wolverines avoided the No. 2 jinx for one week. Michigan stymied Iowa last week as the defense didn't allow the Hawkeyes a touchdown and only 41 yards of rushing. That stat can't be good for Northwestern, which is last in the Big Ten in offense and scoring. The Wildcats also lost leading tackler Nick Roach (broken leg) for the season.
Analysis: The Wolverines have won six of the last seven in this series and have covered three straight against the Wildcats. Michigan is a solid 5-2 against the spread this season. Northwestern is 2-5 against the spread this season. Michigan 38, Northwestern 17.

No. 3 USC (6-0, 4-0 Pac 10) at Oregon State (4-3, 2-3)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -10.5
Storyline: The Trojans used the off week to catch their breath after several close decisions this season. The off week did cost them in the BCS standings as Michigan moved ahead of them to No. 2. In a twist, USC's defense has outshined the offense, allowing only 15 points a game in a conference not known for defense. Oregon State RB Yvenson Bernard is questionable (ankle). Beavers QB Matt Moore, who has mixed results this season with six TDs and six INTs, will have to shoulder the load.
Analysis: USC isn't putting points on the board. The Trojans are a respectable 24th in total offense but only have 22 TDs. Oregon State only has 21 TDs this season, while the USC defense has only allowed 10. The Trojans are a dismal 2-5 against the spread this season. LOCK OF THE WEEK: USC 42, Oregon State 13 .

No. 5 Texas (7-1, 4-0 Big 12) at Texas Tech (5-3, 2-2)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -10.5
Storyline: Texas QB Colt McCoy grew up in Tuscola, Texas, which is a deep post pattern from Lubbock and Texas Tech. He has gone to games as a spectator, but all eyes will be on the freshman. McCoy had two TD pass to beat Nebraska last week and push the Longhorns' winning streak to six games. Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell is ranked fourth in the country in total offense with 373 yards per game. Last week, Harrell accounted for all 6 TDs in a 42-26 victory over Iowa State. Texas' defense is only allowing 46.5 yards of rushing per game, so the Red Raiders will be forced to pass.
Analysis: There will be plenty of fireworks. Last season, these two teams combined for 912 yards of offense, with 608 coming through the air. Texas is 2-1 as a road favorite against the spread this season. Texas 42, Texas Tech 27.

No. 7 Auburn (7-1, 4-1 SEC) at Mississippi (2-6, 1-4)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -18.5
Storyline: The Tigers beat Tulane last week without their starting backfield of Kenny Irons (ankle) and Carl Stewart (calf injury). If Irons can't go, freshman Ben Tate and sophomore Brad Lester can get the job done. Last week Tate injured his groin, and Lester came in a rushed for 156 yards. Auburn will miss center Jason Bosley (knee) on the offensive line. Mississippi's roster took a hit when head coach Ed Orgeron kicked linebacker Garry Pack off and suspended four other players. The Rebels have lost two in a row.
Analysis: Mississippi is 2-5 against the spread. After covering the first four games, Auburn has failed to cover its last three. The Rebels' defense is 88th in the country, giving up 367 yards per game. Auburn 45, Mississippi 17.

No. 8 Tennessee (6-1, 1-1 SEC) at South Carolina (5-2, 3-2)
When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Tennessee -3
Storyline: Tennessee will try to avenge last season's home loss to South Carolina. Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier owns Tennessee and Coach Phillip Fulmer. Spurrier owns a 9-4 record straight up against Fulmer, dating back to the Ol' Ball Coach's Florida days. The Vols can give Spurrier some of his own medicine, throwing the ball at will with QB Erik Ainge. The junior has completed 67 percent of his passes. Spurrier has finally found a QB in Syvelle Newton. Since taking over as signal-caller, Newton has led the Gamecocks to four out of five wins. He has 10 TD passes in that stretch.
Analysis: Tennessee is 5-2 against the spread and 2-0 on the road against the spread. South Carolina's two losses this season have come to ranked opponents (Georgia and Auburn). Tennessee 35, South Carolina 24.

Georgia (6-2, 3-2 SEC) vs. No. 9 Florida (6-1, 4-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m, in Jacksonville
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -13.5
Storyline: Georgia comes into the The World's Largest Cocktail Party out of the rankings. Florida is rested and mad. Two weeks ago, the Gators fell to Auburn and dropped from No. 2 to No. 9 in the ranking with the loss. Florida QB Chris Leak crumbled under the pressure, throwing an interception and coughing up the ball in field goal range that would have preserved a win. Gators fans will be chanting for freshman QB Tim Tebow, a Jacksonville native, to take over the reigns. Georgia's QB problems continue. Freshman Matt Stafford gets the start, and Georgia head coach Mark Richt should stick with him and let him learn the hard way.
Analysis: The Gators defense is a surprising 13th in the country allowing only 267.57 yards per game. Georgia is 12th. Look for a tight, low scoring game, which is the norm in this series. The difference in winning over the last four years has been seven or less points. Florida 21, Georgia 17.

No. 11 Notre Dame (6-1) at Navy (5-2)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -13
Storyline: Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis wonders why the Irish keep dropping in the polls despite the fact they keep winning. Well, Charlie did you miss the first 59 minutes of the UCLA game last week? Charlie, did you miss the first three quarters of the Michigan State game? This Notre Dame team isn't as good as last year's team. Luckily for Charlie, the Irish still have Brady Quinn and Jeff Samardzija. The Midshipmen should be the team that's crying. Navy lost starting QB Brian Hampton for the season. Now with a couple of sophomores, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada and Jarod Bryant trying to fill in, the Navy triple option is missing a spark-plug.
Analysis: Notre Dame is 34th in total offense and Navy is 37th, but that was before injury to Hampton. Rutgers held the Midshipmen to only 116 yards of rushing two weeks ago. Notre Dame has been a bad bet all season, only covering once. Notre Dame 33, Navy 17.

Louisiana-Monroe (1-6) at No. 13 Arkansas (6-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Arkansas -36
Storyline: Arkansas is the only undefeated team in the SEC West and gets a non-conference foe this week. The Razorbacks are enjoying their highest ranking in years. Freshman QB Mitch Mustain has pumped energy into the Arkansas offense, but RBs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones have been the stars. McFadden leads the SEC in rushing, and Jones is averaging 9 yards a carry. Louisiana-Monroe gave up 449 yards to Middle Tennessee last week.
Analysis: Despite the great record, Arkansas hasn't paid off against the spread, going 2-4 this season. Louisiana-Monroe is 3-1 as road underdog this season. Arkansas 44, Louisiana-Monroe 10.

Illinois (2-5, 1-3 Big Ten) at No. 17 Wisconsin (7-1, 4-1)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Wisconsin -21.5
Storyline: Illinois should concentrate on stopping RB P.J. Hill. When the super freshman runs for 100 yards, the Badgers are 7-0. Hill is fourth in the country in all-purpose rushing. Last week against Purdue, Hill tallied 161 yards and two TDs. Wisconsin won easily 24-3. Ron Zook and the Illini may want to dip into the bag of tricks to beat a Wisconsin defense that is No. 7 in the country, allowing only 245.7 yards per game. Maybe Jeff George has some eligibility left?
Analysis: The Badgers have been unstoppable, especially at home. Wisconsin is 15-1 straight up at Camp Randall Stadium the past few years and 14-4 against the spread, including a perfect 4-0 this season. Illinois is 3-4 against the spread this season. Wisconsin 42, Illinois 12.

Buffalo (1-6) at No. 18 Boston College (6-1)
When: Saturday, 1 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Boston College -35
Storyline: With Clemson losing to Virginia Tech, Boston College is basically a lock to win the Atlantic Division of the ACC. The Eagles beat Florida State on the road. QB Matt Ryan played despite sore ankle. Ryan did throw a TD and went 16-for-26 passing in the win. Buffalo is in last place in the East Division of the Mid-American Conference. The Bulls' defense is 108th in the country out of 119 schools.
Analysis: Boston College is 12-3 against MAC schools. The Eagles are 4-2 against the spread this season and a perfect 3-0 at home. Boston College 42, Buffalo 6.

No. 19 Oklahoma (5-2, 2-1 Big 12) at No. 20 Missouri (7-1, 3-1)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Missouri -1.5
Storyline: Oklahoma showed it can win without RB Adrian Peterson. But for how long? The Sooners will need another strong defensive effort to beat Missouri. Oklahoma only allowed Colorado 113 yards of total offense in a 24-3 win. Oklahoma is 11th in total defense in the nation, allowing 266.7 yards per game. The Tigers will try to break the defense with QB Chase Daniel, who is eighth in the country in passing. Missouri's offense is 14th in the country, averaging 419 yards per game.
Analysis: Oklahoma has been just average against the spread this season (3-3). Missouri has been a gem going ATS at home this season, going a perfect 4-0. These two haven't met since 2003, but Oklahoma has won three straight. Oklahoma 24, Missouri 21.

No. 20 Nebraska (6-2, 3-1 Big 12) at Oklahoma State (4-3, 1-2)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -5.5
Storyline: Nebraska nearly pulled off the upset against Texas last week. Now the Cornhuskers, who are tied for the lead in the Big 12 North Division, will have to avoid the upset and the letdown. Nebraska is only allowing 14.5 points per game. QB Zac Taylor has the Nebraska offense is first in the Big 12 with 434.9 yards per game. Taylor has 16 TD passes this season and only three picks. Oklahoma State QB Bobby Reid is questionable after suffering a concussion in 34-33 loss to Texas A&M last week. Reid boasts the third-best passing rating in the country. Nebraska won the last meeting 17-7 back in 2003.
Analysis: The Cornhuskers are 5-2 against the spread this season. Nebraska failed to cover an 8-point spread on the road at Oklahoma State in 2002. The Cowboys are 3-3 against the spread. Nebraska 24, Oklahoma State 17.

Miami (5-2, 2-1 ACC) at No. 21 Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia Tech -5
Storyline: The Hurricanes beat up FIU two weeks ago. And Clemson clobbered Georgia Tech last week. The Yellow Jackets fell to Tigers, 31-3, last week. Miami barely beat Duke last week, needing a last second interception to preserve the win. The Hurricanes will be back to full strength after mass suspensions as a result of the FIU brawl. Miami is somehow eighth in the country in defense, maybe that includes head coach Larry Coker's speeches defending his players. The Georgia Tech offense sputtered against Clemson, tallying only 205 yards. QB Reggie Ball threw for only 117 yards.
Analysis: The Hurricanes are 2-4 against the spread this season and a horrendous 0-2 on the road against the number. Miami also is 0-2 straight up against ranked opponents this season. Georgia Tech is 3-3 against the spread. Look for Georgia Tech to play like it did against Virginia Tech. 2ND LOCK OF THE WEEK: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 10.

No. 22 Texas A&M (7-1, 3-1 Big 12) at Baylor (4-4, 3-1)
When: Saturday, 7:05 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas A&M -4.5
Storyline: This one promises to be close. Texas A&M rides in with a three-game winning streak, but by only 10 points combined. Then the last two times Baylor and Texas A&M have met, it's been decided in overtime. Last week, the Aggies scored the game-winner, a 2-yard pass from Stephen McGee, with 3 seconds remaining to beat Oklahoma State 34-33. The Bears won a close one last week against Kansas with a dramatic come-from-behind win. Baylor scored 18 unanswered fourth-quarter points. Bears QB Shawn Bell might have a sore arm after throwing 55 times, completing 33 for a school record 394 yards and five TDs. In two starts against the Aggies, Bell has five TD passes and no interceptions.
Analysis: Despite needing extra time in the last two, Texas A&M has come up on top 13 straight times. The Bears 3-4 against the spread and only 1-3 at home. The Aggies are 2-0 ATS on the road and 5-2 overall. Texas A&M 21, Baylor 14.

No. 24 Wake Forest (6-1, 2-1 ACC) at North Carolina (1-6, 0-4)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Wake Forest -8.5
Storyline: North Carolina's Jim Bunting is a lame-duck coach, and Wake Forest is no longer the duck sauce of the conference. This is the first time Wake Forest has been ranked in three years. The Demon Deacons have made the rise with redshirt freshman Riley Skinner leading the offense. Wake Forest lost Benjamin Mauk in the season opener, and Skinner hasn't disappointed. He leads the ACC in passing efficiency and is 5-1 as a starter. Bunting has been a disappointment since coming to Chapel Hill. His record is 25-42, and that's after going 8-5 in his first season.
Analysis: The Demon Deacons are 4-2 against the spread this season, but more impressively they're 3-0 on the road against the number. The Tar Heels are a perfect 0-6 against the spread this season. Wake Forest 30, North Carolina 15.

Portland State (5-3) at No. 25 Oregon (5-2)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: no line
Storyline: The Ducks got shocked by Washington State last week. Home cooking and a I-AA opponent in Portland State should make Oregon healthy quick. The Ducks have averaged 37 points a game at Autzen Stadium. Last week QB Dennis Dixon found the bench, replaced by Brady Leaf, who finished 16-of-27 passing for 262 yards and two TDs.
Analysis: Portland State lost to Cal, 42-16, earlier this year. The Vikings are an elite lower division team, but not elite enough. Oregon 38, Portland State 10.

Lock of the week picks (season): 7-4-0
Last week against the spread: 6-15 (ouch)
Overall against the spread record: 76-69-3

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