Top 25 Previews: Week 11 - College Football News, Tips And Picks

Top 25 Previews: Week 11
By Tom Hanson
Posted: 11:00 am PDT 2006-11-10

No. 1 Ohio State (10-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at Northwestern (3-7, 1-5)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Ohio State -23
Storyline: Ohio State survived its first scare of the season, holding on for a 17-10 win over Illinois. Maybe it was a good wake-up call with Michigan on tap next week. Buckeyes QB Troy Smith, the leading Heisman Trophy candidate, was held without a TD pass for the first time this season. The Buckeyes' 224 yards of offense last week marked a season low. Northwestern had 433 yards of total offense in its win over Iowa last week. Sophomore RB Tyrell Sutton had 168 yards rushing for the Wildcats.
Analysis: For the first time this season, Ohio State failed to cover the number against Illinois. But who can complain about being 9-1 against the spread. Northwestern is 1-2 against the spread at home. Ohio State 48, Northwestern 14

No. 2 Michigan (10-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at Indiana (5-5, 3-3)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Michigan -19
Storyline: Michigan, a five TD favorite, barely hung on to beat Ball State last week. The Wolverines, too, probably can't wait until next week's showdown with Ohio State. Let's just fast forward. Michigan gets a boost with WR Mario Manningham returning. He missed four games and still leads the team with 527 yards receiving. The Michigan offense should have an easy time with an Indiana defense that gave up 541 yards to Minnesota. Factor in that the Hoosiers also have the worse rushing offense in the Big Ten, and this could be a long day at Indiana.
Analysis: The Wolverines have won 14 straight over the Hoosiers. Indiana is 4-5 against the spread. The Wolverines are 3-0 as a road favorite this season. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Michigan 38, Indiana 14.

No. 4 Texas (9-1, 6-0 Big 12) at Kansas State (6-4, 3-3)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Texas -16
Storyline: Texas can hook its horns in the division title and a trip to the Big 12 championship game with a win. Texas QB Colt McCoy somehow gets better every week. Against Okie State, the redshirt freshman threw for a career-high 346 yards and three TDs. He set a single-season TD passes mark at Texas with 27. The better stat is that he has only thrown four INTs. Kansas State has played two ranked opponents this season, Nebraska and Louisville and fell to both.
Analysis: The Longhorns have been tough to call against the spread, going 4-4. Kansas State is better at home, covering four times out of six this season. Texas 32, Kansas State 27.

Georgia (6-4, 3-4 SEC) at No. 5 Auburn (9-1, 6-1)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Auburn -12
Storyline: Auburn has won four in a row and is still alive to face Florida again in the SEC title game. Georgia is struggling. The Bulldogs have lost four of their last five games. The Auburn will gets some much needed Iron (Kenny) back in its offensive diet. Irons, who has struggled this season only, gaining 687 yards, played only one series against Arkansas State last week. Irons had a career-high 179 yards against Georgia last season. The Tigers defense has allowed a nation-low 11.5 points a game.
Analysis: After covering the first four games, Auburn has failed to cover its last five games against the spread. Georgia has been a dismal 3-6 against the number Auburn 38, Georgia 12.

South Carolina (5-4, 3-4 SEC) at No. 6 Florida (8-1, 6-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida -12.5
Storyline: Steve Spurrier returns to the Swamp for the first time as a head coach at South Carolina. Florida has already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Spurrier got his old team last year with a 30-22 win in South Carolina. Gators QB Chris Leak has been shaky of late. He did score three TDs last week but he also had four turnovers.
Analysis: South Carolina has never won in the Swamp. The Gators have only covered three out of nine games this season, but all three covers have come at home. But the Gamecocks are 3-0 on the road against the number. Florida 21, South Carolina 17.

No. 21 Oregon (7-2, 4-2 Pac-10) at No. 7 USC (7-1, 5-1)
When: Saturday, 10:15 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: USC -8
Storyline: The Trojans start a treacherous homestand that includes the Ducks this week, followed by Cal and Notre Dame. USC looked better against Stanford, winning 42-0, but then again it was Stanford. The Trojans got conservative as John David Booty only threw 21 passes last week. He did have three TD passes. Oregon, which has won two in a row, will rely on a running game led by Jonathan Stewart Analysis: The Trojans are a balmy 3-5 against the spread. Oregon is just the opposite at 5-3 against the number, but the Ducks are always better at home. USC 33, Oregon 14 .

No. 8 California (8-1, 6-0 Pac-10) at Arizona (4-5, 2-2)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Cal -13.5
Storyline: Cal will have to avoid looking ahead to the Pac-10 showdown with USC next week. RB Marshawn Lynch needs 12 yards to surpass 1,000 yards for the third straight season. The Bears are averaging 36. 1 points game. Arizona will try for its second straight upset of a ranked team. The Wildcats upended then No. 25 Washington State last week.
Analysis: The Wildcats are only 1-3 against the number at home. The Bears are 2-1 on the road against the spread. The one loss was the blowout at Tennessee to start the season. California 44, Arizona 17 .

No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1) at Air Force (4-4)
When: Saturday, 4 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Notre Dame -11.5
Storyline: Notre Dame hopes to continue its dominance of the service academies. Last week, QB Brady Quinn lit up Navy, throwing 346 yards and four TDs. WR Jeff Samardzija caught six balls for 177 yards. His one TD catch broke school record set by Derrick Mayes in 1995. Air Force beat Navy last week. The Falcons' feared ground game is lead by RB Chad Henry (594 yards) and QB Shaun Carney.
Analysis: Air Force is 4-4 against the spread but only 1-3 at home. The Irish are 3-0 straight up on the road but only 1-1-1 against the number. Notre Dame 33, Air Force 27.

Cincinnati (5-4, 2-2 Big East) at No. 10 West Virginia (7-1, 2-1)
When: Saturday, noon.
WagerWeb.com odds: West Virginia -17.5
Storyline: The Mountaineers have had 10 days to recover from their loss to Louisville. QB Pat White did his share in that game, scoring four TDs and totaling 347 yards of total offense. West Virginia RB Steve Slaton carried for 156 yards but had two crucial fumbles. Cincinnati is looking to become bowl eligible. The Bearcats' run defense has allowed only 66 yards per game over the past five.
Analysis: West Virginia shutout Cincinnati last year 38-0. The Bearcats are 0-3 straight up on the road but 2-1 against the spread. The Mountaineers are 4-0 straight up at home. West Virginia 48, Cincinnati 10.

No. 13 Tennessee (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 11 Arkansas (8-1, 5-0)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Arkansas -6
Storyline: Tennessee lost in the final minutes last week against LSU. Remember, Arkansas' only loss came to USC, 50-14 in the season opener. Vols starting QB Erik Ainge will be the backup this week due to an ankle sprain. Redshirt freshman Jonathan Crompton makes his first career start for UT. Arkansas RB Darren McFadden leads the SEC in rushing, averaging 115 yards per game. McFadden had 219 yards last week against South Carolina. Freshman QB Mitch Mustain got benched last week, and Casey Dick gets the start here for the Razorbacks. Analysis: Tennessee is 6-2 against the spread and 3-0 on the road. Arkansas is 4-4 against the number but only 2-3 at home. UPSET SPECIAL: Tennessee 35, Arkansas 17.

Alabama (6-4, 2-4 SEC) at No. 12 LSU (7-2, 3-2 )
When: Saturday, 7:45 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: LSU -18
Storyline: LSU's JaMarcus Russell threw a 4-yard TD pass with nine seconds remaining to beat Tennessee in a thriller last week. Russell threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns The LSU defense is allowing only 215 yard a game and only 10 points, third best in college football. Alabama comes in struggling on offense, failing to record 300 yards in three straight games. RB Ken Darby has 736 yards rushing but has failed to score a touchdown.
Analysis: The Tigers are 6-2 against the spread this season and a perfect 5-0 at home. But Alabama is a perfect 3-0 on the road this season against the spread. LSU 32, Alabama 21.

No. 14 Boise State (9-0, 5-0 WAC) at San Jose State (6-2, 3-1)
When: Saturday, 6 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Boise State -14
Storyline: Boise State quietly remains undefeated and looking on the outside of the BCS equation. This game was supposed to be on ESPN, which would have given the Broncos more exposure. Broncos QB Jared Zabransky threw for three TDs in win over Fresno State. RB Ian Johnson is third in the nation in rushing.
Analysis: Boise State has won all six meetings between these two. But the Broncos are only 1-3 against the spread on the road. The Spartans are 3-1 at home against the number. Boise State 27, San Jose State 14.

No. 16 Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) at Iowa (6-4, 2-4)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Wisconsin -2
Storyline: Wisconsin has won six straight. Badgers QB John Stocco is questionable after re-injury shoulder against Penn State last week. Stocco left in the fourth quarter but not before finishing 15-for-22 for 172 yards and one TD. Junior Tyler Donovan will be ready if Stocco can't go. The Wisconsin defense has held four straight opponents to 100 yards of rushing or less. Iowa QB Drew Tate, still nursing a sore thumb, threw two INTs last week in a 21-7 loss to Northwestern.
Analysis: Iowa gave up 443 yards of offense to Northwestern last week. Wisconsin Iowa.

Texas Tech (6-4, 3-3 Big 12) at No. 17 Oklahoma (7-2, 4-1)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Oklahoma -9
Storyline: Oklahoma is going to try to control the clock and the game on the ground. The Sooners are 20th in the nation in rushing. Oklahoma lost Adrian Peterson for the season, but junior Allen Patrick has filled the void splendidly. Patrick is averaging 146 yards per game. Texas Tech will definitely air it out. Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell leads the nation with 3,507 yards passing. But the Oklahoma defense has allowed its last three opponents only 100 yards of passing.
Analysis: Oklahoma is 5-3 against the spread. Texas Tech is 5-4 against the number but only 2-3 on the road. Oklahoma 33, Texas Tech 21.

No. 18 Wake Forest (8-1, 4-1 ACC) at Florida State (5-4, 3-4)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m
WagerWeb.com odds: Florida State -8.5
Storyline: Wake Forest is somehow a big dog in this game. The Demon Deacons have been the most consistent team in the ACC this season even though they are ranked ninth in both total offense and defense. Maybe the fact that FSU has won the last 14 in this series is the reason. And the Seminoles have won big, by more than 30 points on each occasion. QB Xavier Lee gets his third start for the 'Noles. Lee was 12-for-25 passing for 185 yards but, more important, didn't have a turnover, a FSU first this season. Analysis: Wake Forest is 3-0-1 on the road against the spread this season. And Doak Campbell hasn't been kind to the Seminoles this season. FSU is 2-3 against the spread at home. But the Demon Deacons roll hits a bump here. Florida State 38, Wake Forest 14.

No. 19 Georgia Tech (7-2, 5-1 ACC) at North Carolina (1-8, 0-5)
When: Saturday, noon
WagerWeb.com odds: Georgia Tech -13
Storyline: The Yellow Jackets have a chance to lock in a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech stayed alive with a come-from-behind victory at North Carolina State. QB Reggie Ball threw four TD passes in the win. Two of them found WR Calvin Johnson. The Tar Heels are playing out the string for for lame-duck head coach John Bunting. One bright spot for North Carolina is freshman WR Hakeen Nicks, who had 171 yards receiving last week against Notre Dame.
Analysis: Georgia Tech is 5-2 against the spread. North Carolina is a big fat 1-6. Second Lock of the Day Georgia Tech 35, North Carolina 10 .

Miami (5-4, 2-3 ACC) at No. 23 Maryland (7-2, 4-1)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Maryland -3.5 Storyline: Miami may be motivated after the death of senior captain Bryan Pata. Emotions should be taken into consideration. The Canes will play great or extremely flat. QB Kirby Freeman gets the nod for Miami with Kyle Wright nursing a sore thumb. Maryland is tied with Wake Forest for first place in the Atlantic Conference of the ACC. Maryland has won its past four games by 12 points.
Analysis: The Canes are a big flat 0-3 bust against the spread on the road. Maryland is 4-4. Look for a low scoring game. Maryland 15, Miami 12.

Nebraska (7-3, 4-2 Big 12) at No. 24 Texas A&M (8-2, 4-2)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com odds: Nebraska -1
Storyline: Nebraska can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a victory, but Bill Callahan's Cornhuskers are 9-25 in their past 24 road games. Meanwhile, A&M coach Dennis Franchione could use a big win, as he is 2-9 in November with the Aggies and is a combined 1-11 against Big 12 powers Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech and Oklahoma since coming to College Station.
Analysis: The Huskers haven't beaten a top 25 team on the road since beating Notre Dame in 2000 and haven't beaten a ranked Big 12 team on the road in 10 years. Texas A&M 21, Nebraska 17.

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