The How and What of Adjusted Price Betting

The How and What of Adjusted Price Betting
By Mike "Boozer"
Posted: 7:00 am PDT 2006-10-16

In my last article I addressed some of the reasons why adjusted price betting is beneficial in the modern landscape of golf wagering. Although the article focused on why, I left it up to reader to answer the questions of how and what. So, handicapping this weeks PGATOUR event, The Fry.com Open, I'll attempt to answer the questions of how and what, when wagering on round by round stroke play match ups.

If you polled a group of 10 golf handicappers and asked, "What PGATOUR betting option is toughest to beat?" Seven of them would agree that it's the 2 man, 18hole stroke play match up. Most of them will say that the variable of CHANCE, due to the small sample size of 18holes, retards "normalcy" and any opportunity of long term profitability.

A few years ago I would have been one of those 7 handicappers. However, with experience, or in my stubbornness to problem solve, I discovered an angle so elementary, yet so powerful that I can say with confidence that 18hole stroke play is a long term winner.

What to look for?

This may sound simple but here is what I discovered. With the exception of a tournament winner, you'll almost NEVER see a golfer post a lower score in all 4 rounds, nor will you see the opposite occur by posting a higher score in all 4 rounds.

Scores from last week's Chrysler Classic of Greensboro illustrates my claim. The only player who matched or bettered their round by round score was the winner Davis Love III. Every other player's round by round score had what I call the yo-yo effect.

If anyone below defines this yo-yo effect it's Troy Matteson. Matteson shot rounds of 71, 68, 70, and 68 to finish tied for 6^th. Better yet, Ryan Palmer's rounds of 71, 65, 73, and 67 were a real roller-costar ride to a 5^th place finish.

Player	Pos	R1	R2	R3	R4	Score	Official Money
Davis Love III	T1	69	69	68	66	272	$900,000.00
Jason Bohn	T2	69	69	70	66	274	$540,000.00
Eric Axley	T3	68	69	71	67	275	$290,000.00
Steve Flesch	T3	69	69	69	68	275	$290,000.00
Ryan Palmer	T5	71	65	73	67	276	$200,000.00
Daniel Chopra	T6	68	74	66	69	277	$151,250.00
Joe Durant	T6	67	71	70	69	277	$151,250.00
Lucas Glover	T6	73	69	66	69	277	$151,250.00
Troy Matteson	T6	71	68	70	68	277	$151,250.00
Ryan Moore	T6	67	70	71	69	277	$151,250.00
Nick Watney	T6	64	71	74	68	277	$151,250.00
Brent Geiberger	T12	64	75	71	68	278	$92,142.86
Hunter Mahan	T12	70	72	72	64	278	$92,142.86
Joe Ogilvie	T12	69	72	70	67	278	$92,142.86
Greg Owen	T12	68	69	73	68	278	$92,142.86
Steve Stricker	T12	69	70	71	68	278	$92,142.86
Jonathan Byrd	T12	67	71	71	69	278	$92,142.85
Chris Couch	T12	69	68	69	72	278	$92,142.85

How to apply performance?

First, NEVER bet the 1^st round of an 18hole stroke play match up. Why? Because the punter needs a reference point as to the direction a golfer will correct.

Second, don't be afraid to play a guy after a bad 1^st round. Frankly, that's exactly what you want. For example, a 2^nd round match at last week's Chrysler Classic involving Lucas Glover would have been ideal. Why? Glover is a young and sometimes great player. His 1^st round score of 73 was an aberration and is exactly how the yo-yo process begins.

So, based on Glover's poor 1^st round performance I'd have played him against anyone in round two and just like advertised Glover's 2^nd round 69 corrected back to normal form.

For many reasons, it's difficult for any player to maintain a continual high performance level. They "ALL" gravitate to their median, and it is the handicapper's job to find likely situations where players are heading back to "NORMALCY."

Just think like a yo-yo, a golfer's performance goes up and down then down and up.

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