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Trainer-Jockey Stats
By Greg Melikov
Posted: 5:00 am PDT 2006-01-15 |
Courtesy Of Wager Web Sportsbook |
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I've found that winning
trainer-jockey combinations over the past several years have become an important
ingredient in my recipe for successful handicapping.
Such stats have been around for a long time, but didn't come into vogue until the 1990s.
Now you can find them most anywhere in print or online -- free or for a fee.
However, not all handicappers feel the same way I do. For example, TVG co-host/researcher
Rich Perloff says:
"I think it can be very instructional. I pay more attention to the trainer right off
than the jockey. If a horse interests me, I check further."
"Naturally, I handicap the horse first," I responded by e-mail. "Among
other factors I consider are track bias, class drops, first time Lasix or blinkers,
etc."
The late, great Chicago Sun-Times horseman-for-all-seasons Dave Feldman, whom I met at
Gulfstream Park in the '90s, once told me: "I never saw a jockey carry a horse over
the finish line yet." Nor a trainer either, Dave, I should have told him.
In the '90s, trainer Bill Mott and jockey Jerry Bailey were almost unbeatable at the South
Florida track.
Mott won three of six straight titles, while Bailey was tops in '95, '96 and '98. Bailey
rode fewer and fewer times in the following years, but always was among the highest
winning percentages, thanks partly to Mott's horses that put the conditioner on top from
2000 to '02.
The main reason Perloff shies away from top trainer/jockey stats is because he doesn't
particular relish picking chalk: "The prices aren't there."
Of course, I look at the whole picture and often play exotics, but do not toss out the
favorite if that's the best horse in a race. If the odds are so unrewarding, I simply skip
the race.
Jim Mazur is a handicapping guru who compiles facts and figures on tracks throughout the
country. I first met him at Gulfstream. He's president of Progressive
Handicapping and produces interesting reports on meetings most helpful to
horseplayers.
For example, his 18th edition of Gulfstream Handicapper 2007 includes these
tidbits about jockey-trainer combos:
"Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream (33 percent win average). But, at Gulfstream,
(John) Velazquez actually has a higher winning average aboard horses trained by Peter
Walder (34 percent).
"This is a meet in which we encounter some off-beat combinations consisting of
jockeys and trainers from different racing circuits. For example, at the '06 meet,
(Javier) Castellano (N.Y.) hooked up for five wins on horses trained by Ian Wilkes (Ky., 5
for 19). Eddie Castro (then of Calder) got hot when riding for Southern California
shipper Mike Mitchell (5 for 15).
"A top N. Y. rider who suddenly appears on a horse trained by a Calder trainer should
always be a signal to stop and re-examine that horse. Last year, Cornelio Velasquez
hit at a 30 percent clip (6 for 20) with horses trained by Ralph Ziadie.
"Calder trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. also attracts top riders, albeit a different name
each year. In '04, Plesa used Rene Douglas, but then switched to Jorge Chavez in
'05. Last year, it was Edgar Prado who rode four winners (4 for 18) for Plesa."
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