Wallace Fallout - NBA Basketball News And Picks

Wallace Fallout
By Marty Gitlin
Posted 8:00 am PDT 2006-09-25

NBA aficionados have been furrowing their brows and pondering the ramifications of Ben Wallace's stunning departure from Detroit to Chicago.

But it doesn't take a high hoop IQ to figure it out. It's as easy as 1-2-3.

1. The Bulls will improve, but not enough to make a run at the title.

2. The Pistons will suffer, but not enough to prevent them from remaining a contender.

3. The Heat are the team to beat. Now more than ever.

The smart money says Miami has solidified its hold on the Eastern Conference, and not because of any brilliant offseason maneuvering of its own. The downgrade of Detroit lessens that challenge, and none of the other competition appears ready to unseat the Heat.

Wallace earned NBA Defensive Player of the Year honors for a reason. He not only blocks shots and blankets fellow big men around the basket, but he intimidates even the most fearless penetrators. The Pistons simply lost much of their defensive mystique and physical presence when he hightailed it to Chicago as a free agent.

So the Bulls are ready, right?

Don't bet on it. They required more of a versatile and high-powered scorer to launch themselves into contender status. Instead, they signed Wallace, who will weaken them offensively and increase defensive pressure on the few talented scorers they do possess.

In other words, if the "over" is 180 points or more in Bulls games this season, take the "under."

This is not to denigrate the addition of Wallace. Coach Scott Skiles always squeezes the most out of his talent, and his team has earned a strong defensive reputation. Chicago will likely yield fewer than 90 points a game this season, but scoring more than 90 will prove a chore.

Granted, Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng are capable offensively, but all are relatively young and inconsistent. Guards Gordon and Hinrich both barely exceeded 40 percent shooting last season. The Bulls simply didn't address their offensive needs enough to take that next step. And their fans must cringe at the thought of Wallace at the line in a close game.

Rather then enabling Chicago to catapult into contender status, the Wallace move allows teams such as Cleveland, New Jersey and Washington to emerge as Eastern Conference threats equal to Detroit.

A healthy Larry Hughes and addition of talented draftee Shannon Brown out of Michigan State should assure another 50-win season for LeBron and the Cavs. But the inability or refusal to replace Eric Snow with a point guard who can break down defenses off the dribble will keep Cleveland from challenging Miami.

The continued maturation of center Nenad Krstic to complement Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd increases the threat from New Jersey. But the Nets must hurry. Kidd is no kid anymore.

And the Wizards? Now that's a team that could have used Wallace. Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison comprise the most explosive offensive triumvirate in the conference. But Washington's defensive liabilities were magnified in the playoff loss to the Cavaliers.

The horse race will begin in six weeks. You just might have to wager on the Heat leading wire-to-wire.

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