Week 2 NFL Picks - NFL News

Week 2 NFL Picks
By Chris Goudey
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2006-09-14

Week 1 is in the books and the sharp bettors, who went big on teams like Cleveland, Tennessee, and the NY Giants, took a pounding this weekend. Now that we have a little data to work with and a better idea of who is going to be good and who isn't, things should become a little easier this week.

I personally had just a decent week, going 9-7 for a $90 profit. If you remember from last week's article, I'm going to base all my results on the assumption I'm betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for Week 2:

Oakland +11.5 at Baltimore
Wow, Oakland looked horrible against the Chargers on Monday night. That could be the worst performance I've ever seen by an NFL team. I really can't see the Raiders getting it together against a Ravens defense that just shut out Tampa Bay on the road, but 11.5 is a big number.
My pick: OAKLAND

Houston +13 at Indianapolis
I'd normally never take a favorite this big, and I won't actually bet this game, but since I'm picking every game, I'll lean to the Colts. Like the last game, if this number was at 14, I'd tend to go the other way (since both 10 and 14 are common margins of victory), but at 13 I'll say the Colts cover.
My pick: INDIANAPOLIS

Cleveland +10 at Cincinnati
The Browns looked awful at home against the Saints, and the Bengals looked great against the Chiefs. This is a big in-state rivalry, though, and the Browns are a well-coached team. Head coach Romeo Crennel won't let them look that bad two weeks in a row. If this were under 10 I'd go with Cincy.
My pick: CLEVELAND

Buffalo +6.5 at Miami
Miami didn't play very well against the Steelers and will show why it is a Super Bowl contender this week. Buffalo outplayed New England but still lost, so look for the Bills to be a bit downtrodden.
My pick: MIAMI

Detroit +9 at Chicago
This is a tough one to call because the Bears looked so good, but I'll say they win by 7 in a low-scoring game. The Detroit defense looked real good against the high-powered Seahawks, so hopefully the Lions can keep it close against Da Bears.
My pick: DETROIT

Carolina -2 at Minnesota
The Vikings looked strong against the Skins, and if Steve Smith is still out the Panthers offense is going to struggle again. This is an easy call to me. Take the home dog.
My pick: MINNESOTA

NY Giants +3 at Philadelphia
Another tough call, as the Eagles looked very strong against Houston. I think the Giants are a slightly better team, however. The G-Men aren't going to want to start the year 0-2, so I'll buy to +3.5 and hope they can keep it close.
My pick: NY GIANTS

Tampa Bay +5.5 at Atlanta
Talk about two teams who had completely different Week 1's. Atlanta looked like the best team in football, and the Bucs could have been the worst. I'm guessing both will regress back to the norm, and in that case Tampa is at worst only a couple of points worse than Atlanta. Jon Gruden will put the Bucs through hell this week, so look for them to take it out on Michael Vick.
My pick: TAMPA BAY

New Orleans -2 at Green Bay
Can't believe the Saints are actually favored on the road, but they did look good against Cleveland. Green Bay looked awful against the Bears, but the Packers will take out their frustrations on the Saints. This opened at -1 and has gone to -2 in a day. I'm going to assume this will go to -2.5 or -3. Whatever it ends up at, I'll be buying to take Green Bay +3.5. If it goes to +2.5 it will cost me -150 to go to +3.5, but I'll check it later in the week, hoping it goes to +3 and only costs me -130.
My pick: GREEN BAY

St. Louis -3 at San Francisco
St. Louis looked very good against Denver, and for once it was a product of defense and the rush game as opposed to the Rams' usual aerial game. San Fran QB Alex Smith looked very strong against the Cardinals last week, but I'm not a believer yet. I'll buy down to -2.5 and take what looks to be a much better team.
My pick: ST. LOUIS

Arizona +7 at Seattle
The Cardinals offense sure looked in midseason form, but the Seattle defense combined with a rabid Seahawk crowd will make things much more difficult this week. The combination of a sub-standard Week 1 effort and the trade for Deion Branch (even though he likely won't play) will give the 'Hawks a boost this week and let them take care of the Cards with ease. I'll be buying down to -6.5 here.
My pick: SEATTLE

New England -6 at NY Jets
I think the Jets played about as well as they can in beating Tennessee last week, and New England played about as bad as it can and still win. Now that the Deion Branch mess is settled, look for Tom Brady to get his offense going and the master Bill Belichick to out-coach his prot?g? Eric Mangini. This opened at -4.5, so a lot of early money is coming in the Pats. Both 5 and 6 are pretty dead numbers, so there really isn't a big difference between -4.5 and -6.
My pick: NEW ENGLAND

Tennessee +11.5 at San Diego
11.5 is a ton of points to give with a QB making just his 2nd pro start in Philip Rivers. I'll guess that Titans coach Jeff Fisher can motivate his guys well enough to at least keep this within 10.
My pick: TENNESSEE

Kansas City +10.5 at Denver
This opened at +8, and with the news about Trent Green being out has taken off for Denver. I'm going to wait to bet this until it goes above 11 (which I think it will) but for this article's purposes, take the +10.5. Damon Huard is an able fill-in for Green, and with the way Steven Jackson ran over the Broncos last week, look for Larry Johnson to do enough of that to keep it close.
My pick: KANSAS CITY

Washington +6 at Dallas
Neither team looked very strong in Week 1, but these games are always close. I think the Skins can keep it within a field goal as they don't want to start 0-2.
My pick:WASHINGTON

Pittsburgh pk at Jacksonville
This is definitely a toss-up to me but when in doubt, go with the amped-up home team on Monday night.
My pick: JACKSONVILLE

Week 1 results: 9-7, +$90
Season to date: 9-7, +90

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