Week 3 NFL Picks - NFL News And Picks

Week 3 NFL Picks
By Chris Goudey
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2006-09-22

Week 2 saw a lot of huge favorites, with 5 teams being at least 10-point chalk. Normally an early week with a lot of big dogs is profitable for sharp bettors, who know that things tend to even out in the long run and teams shouldn't be favored by that much that soon.

I'd like to consider myself a sharp bettor, but it sure didn't play out this past week. Four of the 5 big favorites covered and ruined my week. I went 7-9, and a few of the teams I bought the points on lost, so that was additional bad news. I hope to turn things around this week. I'm going to base all my results on the assumption I'm betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for week 3:

NY Jets +5.5 (at WagerWeb.com) at Buffalo
Buffalo pulled off a huge upset on the road against the Dolphins last week and now returns to face the Jets. I think the Bills suffer a bit of a letdown here, and the Jets, who have played well considering their talent, keep it within a field goal.
My pick: NY JETS

Cincinnati +2 at Pittsburgh
Cincy is my pick to go to the Super Bowl in the AFC, but this is one of the few games I had the Bengals losing when I did my season preview. Pittsburgh will be extra-motivated after that woeful performance on Monday night, and Cincy is flying high after a great start. When in doubt, pick the hungrier team, and right now that's the Steelers.
My pick: PITTSBURGH

Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis
The Jags' defense has looked fantastic so far, but so has the Colts' offense. Many sharps that I know are betting the under on this game, so with that I'll buy the 1/2 point for the Jags and take them at +7.5, hoping they keep Peyton and friends out of the end zone frequently.
My pick: JACKSONVILLE

Tennessee +11 at Miami
Here we go again with the huge home favorite. I think the trade of disgruntled Billy Volek this week will put a little spring in the Titans' step, and they can keep it within 10 points. Miami is the better team without question, but Daunte Culpepper has looked really bad so far, and I think he can keep it close with a couple of interceptions.
My pick: TENNESSEE

Washington -4 at Houston
It's gut-check time for the 'Skins after starting 0-2 and looking terrible in the process. A season that began with such great expectations is in danger of going down the toilet. Star RB Clinton Portis should return for this game, but if not this line will drop in a hurry. The Texans have also looked pretty bad, but they are at home. This is a very tough game to call without knowing for sure about Portis, but when in doubt go with the home dog.
My pick: HOUSTON

Chicago -3 at Minnesota
Both teams have played incredibly well thus far, but the wins by the Vikings have been a little more impressive. The Vikes beat what were two highly regarded teams in Washington and Carolina, while the Bears have had easy pickings with the Pack and the Lions. I'll take my chances with the home dog but will buy the 1/2 point.
My pick: MINNESOTA

Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay
You have to believe that Tampa coach Jon Gruden isn't going to let his guys start 0-3 without a fight. A gimpy Steve Smith should return for the Panthers, but the Bucs are getting points at home and Gruden is such a good coach that I think they might even win outright. This is the easiest call of the week and I'll buy the 1/2 point to +3.5 just to be safe.
My pick: TAMPA BAY

Green Bay +6.5 at Detroit
You have to think Detroit can't wait for this game after playing what could be the two best teams in the NFC (Seattle, Chicago) in Weeks 1 and 2. I look for the Lions to come out roaring this week and take it to the Pack.
My pick: DETROIT

Baltimore -6.5 at Cleveland
The Ravens have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL thus far, allowing only 6 points in two games. I normally don't like taking road favorites, but this is a good number for them, and they are clearly a better team than the hapless Browns.
My pick: BALTIMORE

St. Louis +4.5 at Arizona
Well, the Cardinals were 7.5 point favorites against San Fran in Week 1 and didn't cover, and now they are another favorite at home this week. St. Louis had a bad week last week, but I think the Rams are at least as good a team as Arizona, so I'll take the gift 4.5.
My pick: ST. LOUIS

NY Giants +3.5 at Seattle
The Giants have had a brutal early schedule thus far and have been competitive in both games. Seattle barely beat Detroit and then didn't look great against Arizona. I'll take the team that has already been through the muck to keep it close or maybe even pull the upset on the road.
My pick: NY GIANTS

Philadelphia -6 at San Francisco
San Fran has looked very good (for it) in Weeks 1 and 2, but I think this week Alex Smith starts to look a little more like the guy we saw last year. I really like the over on this game also, but I think Philly wins by 10-14 as Donovan McNabb tears it up again.
My pick: PHILADELPHIA

Denver +6.5 at New England
Everything is pointing to a big New England win, but for some reason I really think Denver keeps this close. Mike Shanahan is a good coach, and I think Jake Plummer's pride has been bruised and he'll get it together this week, at least enough to keep it within a touchdown. This line is 6.5 right now, but I'm waiting to bet as I think it will go to +7. At that point I'll buy to +7.5 and take the Broncos. If it stays where it is, I'll grade this as a 1-point buy at -150.
My pick: DENVER

Atlanta -3.5 at New Orleans
The Saints have started 2-0, but c'mon, they beat Green Bay and Cleveland. Atlanta has been the best team in the NFL so far and beat two much tougher teams in Carolina and Tampa Bay. I'll buy down to -2.5 and take the much better team.
My pick: ATLANTA

Week 2 results: 7-9, -$350
Season to date: 16-16, -$260

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