Week 4 NFL Picks - NFL News And Picks

Week 4 NFL Picks
By Chris Goudey
Posted: 3:00 am PDT 2006-09-30

Week 3 went a little better for me and it showed why buying the 1/2 point is a profitable move, as I won 2 games (Jacksonville and Minnesota) that I would've pushed with without the buy. I made a mistake with the Falcons as I forgot about the whole first game after Katrina implications. I'd have taken New Orleans had I remembered, but there's no crying in betting (most of the time anyway) so on we go.

I'm going to base all my results on the assumption I'm betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for week 4:

Indianapolis -9 at NY Jets
Yes, the Jets have been very good so far, but they lost by 7 at home to New England, and I think Indy is at least 3 points better than the Pats this year (in the regular season, anyway).
My pick: INDIANAPOLIS

San Diego -2.5 at Baltimore
San Diego has looked great its first two games, but c'mon, the Chargers faced the two worst teams in the NFL in Oakland and Tennessee. No way should they be favored here. I'll buy up to +3.5 here to be safe, but I doubt I need it.
My pick: BALTIMORE

Minnesota +1 at Buffalo
After losing at home last week, I think the Bills are hungry. They have a tough defense, and we saw last week that the Vikes don't have what it takes to stick with a good D.
My pick: BUFFALO

Dallas -9 at Tennessee
Jeff Fisher is actually a pretty good coach despite his troops starting 0-3, and I think this whole T.O. debacle has distracted the Cowboys enough this week that the Titans keep it close at home. I'll buy up to +10.
My pick: TENNESSEE

San Francisco +7 at Kansas City
San Fran is just playing some hard-nosed football, and I can't see any team led by a Huard brother being a 7-point favorite. Buy to +7.5 and board the Alex Smith-Frank Gore train.
My pick: SAN FRANCISCO

New Orleans +7 at Carolina
I think this line is probably close to being right, so I'll take the good number for the feel-good story of the season.
My pick: NEW ORLEANS

Arizona +7 at Atlanta
I think that woeful performance on Monday night will tick the Falcons off and they'll win this one by at least 10. Could this be Matt Leinart's debut? If Kurt Warner struggles early we might see him and if so, this isn't the best team to face. Buy to -6.5.
My pick: ATLANTA

Miami -3.5 at Houston
Wow, I really thought Miami would look better than it has so far. Houston's defense is just horrible and even with the struggles Daunte Culpepper has had I can't see Miami winning this by less than 7. Buy down to -2.5.
My pick: MIAMI

Detroit +5.5 at St. Louis
In the first edition of the Martz Bowl, I see the Lions keeping this close. Yes, they are 0-3, but they are playing hard and the players have some pride. I'd like this a lot better if it was +7, but I'll have to trust my instincts here.
My pick: DETROIT

New England +6 at Cincinnati
Cincy was my pick to go the Super Bowl this year, and the Bengals have done nothing to prove me wrong. I think they win by just a TD so I don't love this play, but I'll stick with my guns.
My pick: CINCINNATI

Jacksonville -3 at Washington
Now that was the team that Redskins fans thought they were getting this year. Granted, last week's win was against a horrible Texans defense, and this week the Redskins face a very good one. I think it's a FG margin either way, so I'll take the home dog and buy to +3.5.
My pick: WASHINGTON

Cleveland -3 at Oakland
Cleveland had a great effort last week and is the better-coached team. The Raiders are just a complete mess and have a rookie QB making his first start in Andrew Walter.
My pick: CLEVELAND

Seattle +3.5 at Chicago
The Shaun Alexander injury means the Bears load up the pass rush and fly at Matt Hasselbeck. Buy to -2.5 and this is my slam-dunk of the week.
My pick: CHICAGO

Green Bay +11 at Philadelphia
This is a tough one for me because I like Philly by 10-14 points. It's always hard to pick a team to win by this much, but because the Pack won last week I think they'll have a stinker this week. At least we won't have to listen to Madden's man-crush on Brett Favre on a Monday night again.
My pick: PHILADELPHIA

Week 3 results: 8-6, +120
Season to date: 24-22, -$140

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