Week 7 NFL Picks Against Spread - NFL News, Tips And Picks

Week 7 NFL Picks Against Spread
By Chris Goudey
Posted: 11:00 am PDT 2006-10-20

Well, I've gone 17-8-2 the past two weeks and am starting to think I know what I'm doing. I'm sure Week 7 will kick my butt, but I'll give it my best shot. There are a ton of ugly games that I really can't get a handle on, so be prepared ahead of time that this may be a down week. I am an optimist by nature, though, and I think I have a good idea about where teams fall in the power rankings, so hopefully the good run continues!

I'm going to base all my results on the assumption I'm betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 (and occasionally the 10) for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for Week 7 (lines as of Friday afternoon):

San Diego -5 at Kansas City

I don't like this game or this dead number very much, but I think the awesome Chargers defense can slow down Larry Johnson enough to let the Bolts win by 7. My pick: SAN DIEGO

Jacksonville -9.5 at Houston

I'll buy to +10 on this one as I think the Texans are due to put a decent game together and, as always, I love big home dogs. My pick: HOUSTON

New England -5.5 at Buffalo

This game is almost the exact same scenario as the SD/KC game above. I don't like this one, either. We've got the better team with a bad number on the road. With the extra week to prepare I'll go ahead and say Bill Belichick did enough to get the Patriots to cover. My pick: NEW ENGLAND

Pittsburgh -2.5 at Atlanta

Wow, what a difference a week makes in the Pittsburgh line! Now they Steelers are road favorites? They have only played one good game out of five, so give me the team that just lost at home and will be ready to atone. Buy this to +3.5 (-$150) and hope Vick doesn't get killed. My pick: ATLANTA

Green Bay +5 at Miami

Considering the two teams this should be a marquee matchup, but this year? Not so much. This is like an ugly NFC North matchup with Favre against Harrington. This is another game I can't get a real good read on, but Miami is too good to be this bad. One of these weeks the Dolphins will play well, and I'll go ahead and say this is it. My pick: MIAMI

Philadelphia -5.5 at Tampa Bay

Yet another bad number road favorite. I'll go ahead and say there won't be any phantom roughing the passer calls that let Tampa cover this week. My pick: PHILADELPHIA

Detroit +3.5 at NY Jets

Detroit finally looked halfway decent last week, and I think these two teams are pretty equal talent-wise. I'll go with the Lions and the nice number. My pick: DETROIT

Carolina +3 at Cincinnati

The Bengals should be nice and angry this week after last week's robbery, and I see Carolina due for a letdown after the nice road win last week. Buy to -2.5. This is my favorite play of the week. My pick: CINCINNATI

Denver -4.5 at Cleveland

What do we have here? Why, it's another bad number road favorite! If I get two out of these 4 road favorites correct I'll be happy. People I trust are picking Cleveland in this one, but I see the stellar Broncos defense scoring at least one TD, and that may be enough. My pick: DENVER

Washington +8.5 at Indianapolis

I really liked this for the Skins at +10, which is where it opened, but at +8.5 not as much. I know the Skins are going to try to pound the ball with Clinton Portis, since Tennessee almost beat Indy by doing the same two weeks ago. This game is incredibly important for the Skins since they probably have no shot at the playoffs if they lose. I'll go ahead and say Coach Gibbs gets his boys extra motivated and they keep it close.

My pick: WASHINGTON

Minnesota +6.5 at Seattle

Seattle escaped St. Louis by the skin of its teeth (and Josh Brown's foot) last week, which means the Seahawks are due for a letdown, and the Vikings had the extra week to get ready. This opened at +7, and I already bet this one because I thought it would drop, and it did. Count this one as a 1-point buy (-150) to +7.5. My pick: MINNESOTA

Arizona -3 at Oakland

Well, the Raiders finally covered a game, and I said I'd pick against them until they did. Here's the thing, though. The Cardinals almost beat the best team in football, and the upgrade to Matt Leinart at QB makes all the difference. I'm sure this was a real fun week at practice for the Cards after Denny Green's meltdown, so look for them to take it out on Al Davis' boys. Buy to -2.5. My pick: ARIZONA

NY Giants +3 at Dallas

This is a really tough one as both teams are coming off impressive wins. I have these teams rated close to even, and with the normal 3-point upgrade for the home team this line is exactly where it should be. I do have the Giants ranked one spot above Dallas on my power rankings, however, so I'll go with that minuscule edge and buy to +3.5. My pick: NY GIANTS

Week 6 results: 9-4, +$440

Season to date: 49-36-2, +$700

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