Week 12 NFL Picks - NFL News, Tips And Picks

Week 12 NFL Picks
By Chris Goudey
Posted: 3:00 am PDT 2006-11-23

Without much time to study up for this week's games due to the Thanksgiving holiday, I'm just going to go with my first instinct and hope for the best. Things have fallen off a bit the past two weeks, but there's still plenty of time to rally and finish in the black. My record is still well above .500, but as I've said, you need to buy points and hit at least 53% to be an overall winner. The problem is I pick every game, and that hurts my record. If I were just tracking the games I actually bet, I'd be well ahead of break even, as my balances at the books I use are much healthier than they were in September.

I'm going to base all my results on the assumption I'm betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 (and occasionally the 10 or 14) for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for Week 12:

Miami -3 at Detroit
The Lions almost always come through on Turkey Day, and this week they're even getting points against Joey Harrington. Joey will get a rude welcome as he returns to Ford Field in an opposing uniform for the first time. Buy to +3.5. My pick: DETROIT

Tampa Bay +11 at Dallas
Tampa comes off a much-needed win over the Redskins, and Dallas comes off knocking off Goliath (Indianapolis). I'll say Dallas has the bigger letdown and Tampa keeps it within 10. My pick: TAMPA BAY

Denver -1 at Kansas City
This could be Jake Plummer's swan song, and he's going into the most rabid stadium in the NFL. As a huge Bronco fan, let me just tell you ... WE WANT CUTLER! My pick: KANSAS CITY

Jacksonville -3 at Buffalo
A hot-weather team going into a cold-weather stadium and coming off a nice Monday night win. Smells like upset time to me. Buy to +3.5. I love this one. My pick: BUFFALO

Houston +6 at NY Jets
After getting shut out by the Bears last week, the Jets are looking at this as a game against a college team. I look for a blowout here as the Jets try to salvage their playoff hopes. My pick: NY JETS

Pittsburgh +3 at Baltimore
I don't get this line AT ALL. Baltimore has been beating everyone lately, and Pittsburgh barely beat Cleveland last week. Really like this one too, but buy to -2.5. My pick: BALTIMORE

Cincinnati -3 at Cleveland
Cincy demolished New Orleans last week, and I think now the Carson Palmer and the Bengals are starting to put it together. Buy to -2.5. My pick: CINCINNATI

Arizona +6 at Minnesota
Minnesota has the running game to keep the Arizona offense off the field. Look for the Vikes to win by 10. My pick: MINNESOTA

San Francisco +5.5 at St. Louis
The loss of tackle Orlando Pace has caused QB Marc Bulger's protection to go kaput, which means he's forcing throws too soon and is causing the offense to sputter. The 49ers have looked very good the last two weeks and are now in playoff contention. My pick: SAN FRANCISCO

Saints +3 at Falcons
New Orleans seems to be falling apart, and Michael Vick should be able to put together a good game against this defense. Buy to +2.5. My pick: ATLANTA

Carolina -4 at Washington
Jason Campbell looked very good in his starting debut for the 'Skins last week, but he'll have more problems this week against a better defense. Steve Smith goes nuts in this one. My pick: CAROLINA

Chicago +3 at New England
Very tough game to pick, but I trust Brady and Belichick more than I trust anyone for Chicago. Buy to -2.5. My pick: NEW ENGLAND

Philadelphia +9 at Indianapolis
Well, the Colts should be nice and angry and the Eagles know they are done now that McNabb is out. My pick: INDIANAPOLIS

NY Giants -3 at Tennessee
Tennessee should continue to destroy the playoff hopes of the NFC East teams. Travis Henry is the difference here. Buy to +3.5. My pick: TENNESSEE

Oakland +13 at San Diego
I think the Chargers are due for a stinker this week. They'll still win, but Oakland will find a way to keep it reasonable because the Raiders are playing good defense. My pick: OAKLAND

Green Bay at Seattle
There was no line available on this game at press time. If the line opens at +10 or more, I'll take the Packers. Anything lower than 10, I'm on Seattle.

Week 10 results: 7-8-1, -$200
Season to date: 83-74-3, -$220

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