While the NFC matches its top two playoff seeds this weekend, the
AFC's top two fell last weekend, setting up yet another meeting in what has become one of
the NFL's best rivalries.
The Patriots
and Colts meet in the playoffs for the third time in four years and the seventh time
overall since the league realigned and took the Colts out of the AFC East in 2002.
The Patriots
have dominated the postseason meetings, which have come to be defined as a tale of two
quarterbacks. New England QB Tom Brady is 12-1 in the playoffs, with three Super Bowl
titles, while Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning ? the league's top passer nearly every year
during the regular season ? has been stymied in the postseason.
In the AFC
title game in January 2004, Manning threw four interceptions as the Patriots won 24-14.
And after Manning had thrown an NFL-record 49 touchdown passes during the 2004 season, the
Patriots held him and the Colts out of the end zone in a 20-3 victory in the divisional
playoffs.
The Colts,
who had lost six straight to the Patriots, might have turned things around in this
rivalry, however, with victories in each of the past two seasons.
On Nov. 5,
the Colts intercepted four of Brady's passes and Manning threw for 328 yards and two
touchdowns as the Colts beat the Patriots 27-20 at the RCA Dome. And this game will be at
the RCA Dome as well, the first AFC Championship Game contested in a dome.
After beating
the Patriots, the Colts were 8-0 on the season, but they went 4-4 in the second half and
were lightly regarded in their matchup against the Baltimore Ravens last weekend. But they
toughed it out against the league's top-ranked defense, and Adam Vinatieri kicked five
field goals in a 15-6 win.
Vinatieri should factor heavily against his old team at the RCA Dome, where he is 26 for
26 on field goals in his career, including 15 of 15 in his first season with the Colts.
Perhaps the best clutch kicker in football history, Vinatieri was a huge contributor in
the Patriots' three Super Bowl wins, twice kicking the game-winners. But the Patriots let
him sign with the Colts last offseason, and he already has proved his worth.
"When he
walks out there, you always feel like he's not going to miss," Colts coach Tony Dungy
said. "That was our whole goal when he was at New England: You can't let him get
close enough in a situation where a field goal is going to do it. I don't remember him
missing in four or five years against me."
Now he's
kicking for Dungy and against his old team, which struggled just enough throughout the
season to be perhaps the most overlooked playoff team in the AFC. But the Pats blew out
the Jets 37-16 in the wild-card round and rallied to win in San Diego 24-21 last Sunday.
The Patriots are 8-1 on the road this season, but the Colts are 9-0 at home and playing
much better on defense.
The run
defense was the Colts' Achilles' heel all season, allowing an NFL-high 173 yards per game.
But in playoff wins over Kansas City and Baltimore, they have surrendered a total of 127
yards on the ground.
"I think
we're playing consistently well for 60 minutes, and we're playing with an intensity that's
been unmatched," linebacker Cato June said. "We're having fun doing it and
showing that all the stuff in the regular season doesn't matter."
They will
have their hands full with the Patriots' two-headed monster of Corey Dillon and rookie
Laurence Maroney, who combined for 148 yards against the Colts in the first meeting this
season.
But if the
defense can continue its postseason dominance and Manning can move the ball against the
Patriots' sixth-ranked defense, the two-time league MVP might finally get a chance to
become a Super Bowl MVP.
"I think
it's the same thing at stake for him as there is for all of us," Dungy said.
"We've got a group that hasn't been to the Super Bowl. They'd like to get there.
We're one step away. Everyone in the locker room wants to do that, and Peyton's no
different. It's not make-or-break for them and it's not make-or-break for him. We'd just
like to get there and do it."
PATRIOTS
AT A GLANCE
Offense:
335.6 yards per game (11th in NFL). Passing: 212.5 (12th). Rushing: 123.1
(12th).
Defense:
294.4 (sixth). Passing: 200.2 (12th). Rushing: 94.2 (fifth).
Individual
leaders
QB Tom Brady:
61.8 percent, 3,529 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.
RB Corey
Dillon: 812 yards, 4.1 average, 13 TDs.
RB Laurence
Maroney: 745 yards, 4.3 average, six TDs.
WR Reche
Caldwell: 61 receptions, 760 yards, four TDs.
WR Troy
Brown: 43 receptions, 384 yards, four TDs.
TE Ben
Watson: 49 receptions, 643 yards, three TDs.
K Stephen
Gostkowski: 103 points, 20 of 26 field goals.
KR Laurence
Maroney: 28.0 average.
PR Kevin
Faulk: 10.6 average.
LB Tedy
Bruschi: 113 tackles, one interception.
LB Mike
Vrabel: 89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, three interceptions.
LB Rosevelt
Colvin: 55 tackles, 8.5 sacks.
DE Ty Warren:
84 tackles, 7.5 sacks.
CB Asante
Samuel: 65 tackles, 10 interceptions, 24 passes defensed.
Injury
report: SS Rodney Harrison (knee) is doubtful; WR Troy Brown (flu), OT Ryan
O'Callaghan (flu) and DE Mike Wright (flu) are questionable; QB Tom Brady (shoulder) is
probable.
COLTS
AT A GLANCE
Offense:
379.4 (third). Passing: 269.3 (second). Rushing: 110.1 (18th).
Defense:
332.3 (21st). Passing: 159.3 (second). Rushing: 173.0 (32nd).
Individual
leaders
QB Peyton
Manning: 65 percent, 4,397 yards, 31 touchdowns, nine interceptions.
RB Joseph
Addai: 1,081 yards, 4.8 average, seven TDs.
RB Dominic
Rhodes: 641 yards, 3.4 average, five TDs.
WR Marvin
Harrison: 95 receptions, 1,366 yards, 12 TDs.
WR Reggie
Wayne: 86 receptions, 1,310 yards, nine TDs.
TE Dallas Clark:
30 receptions, 367 yards, four TDs.
K Adam
Vinatieri: 113 points, 25 of 28 field goals.
RS Terrence
Wilkins: 24.5 average on kickoffs, 9.2 average on punts with one TD.
LB Cato June:
142 tackles, three interceptions.
LB Gary
Brackett: 122 tackles.
DE Robert
Mathis: 9.5 sacks, four forced fumbles.
DE Dwight
Freeney: 5.5 sacks, four forced fumbles.
CB Nick
Harper: Three interceptions.
Injury
report: OT Ryan Diem (shoulder), CB Nick Harper (ankle), LB Cato June (concussion), OG
Ryan Lilja (knee), WR Ricky Proehl (hamstring) and FS Bob Sanders (knee) are questionable.
Best bet:
The Colts have home-field advantage and the best postseason kicker in NFL history.
Vinatieri wins it, and Dungy and Manning finally make it to the Super Bowl. Indianapolis,
27-24
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