If you're a sports bettor, the Super Bowl is like a giant party
because of the stakes involved and the fact that you can bet on so many different things
about the game. Most people who bet on the
NFL are usually just betting against the point spread on whichever games catch their eye
each week. The Super Bowl, however, is an
entirely different animal, and there are literally hundreds of bets you could make just on
this one game.
Each NFL
week, my focus as the Fantasy Sensei is on the individual skill players in all the games
(i.e. quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers), as those are the guys who will either
make or break my team's success. Now,
normally a fantasy player's season comes to an end when the regular season does, but if
you are a successful fantasy player you can also use the same skill-set that created that
awesome fantasy team to make some nice money on the Big Game.
The key to
winning your fantasy football league is playing the correct players every week, and the
way to do that is to know the tendencies of the defenses your players are playing against. For instance, if your stud RB was facing the
killer Ravens defense that week, you might want to sit him down because the odds are he's
going to have a bad game. Likewise, if your
guy was facing the Swiss cheese defense of a team like Arizona or Houston, you'd
definitely want to start him.
Using that
knowledge, you can also take a look at how the two teams in the Super Bowl, the Colts and
the Bears, performed on defense and if you're smart and do some research, you could make
some good money if you choose by betting on the individual player bets for the game. These type of bets are called
"proposition" bets or "props", and you'll probably see them mentioned
in various media outlets leading up to the game.
Now, as your
Sensei of all things fantasy, I'm going to do the hard part for you, and tell you exactly
what I think is going to happen with both QBs, the top two RBs on each team, the top two
WRs on each team, and the tight ends for both squads.
Your job (if you're so inclined) is to then go and find the best value you
can at WagerWeb.com and fire away. Here's how
I see things playing out for the top skill players in the game:
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning - The Bears' defense has
given up a ton of passing yards for about the last 6-8 weeks, and now it has to face the
best QB in the game. Teams are still having
problems running against the Bears, so look for Manning to throw and throw and throw. I'll say Manning throws for about 300 yards and at
least 2 TDs, so most likely you'd be betting the over on any yardage or TD props you'd see
for him. Let's go with a line of 25
completions in 37 attempts for 310 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 interception.
Rex Grossman - If things go the way I think
they will, the Bears will try and run as much as possible early in the game. The key to the game, in my opinion, is how well
they're going to be able to do that. The
Colts had one of the worst defenses against the rush in the league during the regular
season, but in the postseason they've been fantastic, so it's hard to say which squad is
going to show up. I always put more
emphasis on recent performance, so I'll say the Bears end up having a hard time with the
rush and Grossman has to start airing it out in the second half in an effort to catch up. I'll go with numbers like 21 completions in
40 attempts, for 230 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. I've
seen his prop number at about 215 pass yards, so I would also go over on that one.
Running Backs
Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis -
For the last few weeks, Addai has slowly taken over as the featured runner in this combo,
getting about twice as many carries as Rhodes. As
I said, I don't think the Colts are going to have much success rushing the ball, so I'll
go with numbers like 20 carries for 60 yards and a TD for Addai, and 10 carries for 30-35
yards for Rhodes. You can also wager on how
many receptions/receiving yards each guy will get, so let's go with 3 catches for 25 yards
for Addai and 2 catches for 10 yards for Rhodes.
The prop bets I'm seeing on Addai are pretty close to what I have, but
I do like what I'm seeing on Rhodes. I've
seen as high as 50 rushing yards so go under on him.
Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, Chicago - I
think these two guys (and the Bears' offensive line) are the key to the game. If these two can combine for over 130-140 yards on
the ground, the Bears are going to be very tough to beat.
Anything under 100 yards combined, and it's going to be very tough for them
to win. Jones gets about 75 percent of the
carries in this tandem, and since I think the Colts' D is going to be tough, we'll give
Jones 22 carries for about 75 yards and 1 TD. I'll
put Benson down for 8 carries for 30 yards. Jones
is a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, so let's give him 4 catches for 25 yards,
while Benson isn't much of a receiver so I'll say he doesn't catch one at all. The Jones
prop numbers look pretty darn close to mine, so I'd pass on those, but like Rhodes, I
think Benson's numbers are too high (also in the 50-yard range) so I'd take under on him
as well.
Wide Receivers
Note: WR props are always harder to do well at,
simply because there are more options for the QB to throw to. It's not like it is with RBs, where you're pretty
sure who's going to be getting the carries, or with QBs, when you know who's throwing the
ball. WR numbers can vary widely from game to
game, so with these I'll just give you some ranges that I see for each guy. I tend to stay away from these unless the prop
number is far off my projection.
Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis -
I see Harrison getting anywhere from 80-100 yards, and Wayne in the 70-80-yard range. During the regular season Wayne had better numbers
than Harrison, but in the postseason Manning has looked more often toward his long-time
running buddy. Both guys have a good shot at
getting a TD reception.
Bernard Berrian and Mushin Muhammad, Chicago - These
two are a contrast in styles, with Berrian being the speedy deep-ball threat and Muhammad
being the sure-handed possession receiver. I
think Grossman is going to look to Muhammad more often, simply to calm what are sure to be
huge butterflies in his stomach. Getting some
easy early completions to Muhammad could open things up later for Berrian. These two tend to alternate who has a good game,
but I'll say both guys will be in the 60-75-yard range when all is said and done. Rashied Davis is the 3rd WR for the
Bears, and he could put a crimp in the numbers for the first two if the Bears choose to go
with 3 WR sets often.
Tight Ends
Dallas
Clark, Indianapolis - Clark has really put up some nice numbers in the playoffs
and seems to have re-established the connection with Manning that he lost because of
injury. Look for him to have about 50-60
receiving yards in this one.
Desmond Clark, Chicago - The other TE named
D. Clark has been all over the map this season, so it's hard to pin down what he could do. He has had games with no catches and games with
over 100 yards receiving, so I'll just go with his average for the year, which is about
35-45 yards.
Hopefully
these numbers give you something to work with if you decide to go ahead and have some fun
with the prop bets. Best of luck in all your
action, and look for more Sensei articles as we approach the 2007 season!
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