Super Bowl Spread Pick - NFL News, Tips And Picks

Super Bowl Spread Pick
By Chris Goudey
Posted: 4:00 am PDT 2007-02-04

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Well, it all comes down to this. We have the matchup of the best offense in the league (Indianapolis) against what I think is the second-best defense in the league (Chicago). If you've been following my picks for the year, you'll know that I have a pretty good regular-season record (over 53% picking every game, about 58% on games I actually bet), but the playoffs have just been bad times for me overall. Nonetheless, if you asked me at the beginning of the year if I'd take these results, then I would absolutely have done it.

The Super Bowl is the culmination of it all, and I have some definite opinions about what I think is going to happen. To me, this game isn't going to be won or lost in the Colts' offense vs Bears' defense matchup. It's going to depend on the opposite, how the Bears offense does against the Colts defense. The Colts are going to score points, there's no doubt about it. They've done it against everyone, even the team I thought had the best defense, Baltimore. Granted, the Colts didn't get in the end zone in that game, but they scored enough to win it. The reason they won that one was because of their defense, though, not their offense, and I think that's the side of the ball that needs to be focused on when you look at this game.

The Colts scored 15 points against the Ravens, and I think they can probably put up a little more than that against the Bears, so I'll give them 21 points. The game is going to hinge on if the Bears can muster enough offense to score 21+ points against a defense that's just been fantastic the last few weeks. My guess is no, but when it comes to picking the point-spread, it doesn't matter if the Bears score over 21 or not. The spread for this game right now is Indy -7 on WagerWeb.com, which means the Colts are favored by a touchdown.

If you look at that Colts-Ravens game, the final score was 15-6, so you can tell the Ravens had a very hard time scoring. I think the Chicago offense is a little bit better than the Baltimore squad, so the Bears should definitely put up more than 6 points. The Bears have a better running game and better receivers than the Ravens, so the big question is if quarterback Rex Grossman can get it done. So far he hasn't hurt them in the playoffs, but he hasn't faced a defense that's playing as well as the Colts have the last three games. True, the Patriots scored 34 points in the AFC title game, but they had two special-teams TDs. The Bears should be able to run the ball fairly well, so if they can get some decent production out of Grossman they have a shot at scoring enough to cover the spread.

If you've read my articles, you know that I'm an advocate of buying points when the spread is at -3 or -7. The final spread of the game usually hits one of these two numbers about 35% of the time, so it's important to use buying points to your advantage. For this game, no matter which side you like, you should buy the points or search around to try to find the number you want. If you like the Colts, you should try to get to -6.5, which means if Indy wins by 7, then you win. If you like the Bears, then you should try to find a +7.5. Right now I'm seeing both -6.5 and -7 for Indy, which means you probably won't be able to find a +7.5 for Chicago. To get to the +7.5 what you would want to do is find a place that has +7, then buy up to the +7.5 to get there. You'll have to pay extra to do it, usually 20 to 25 cents on the dollar (meaning you have to bet $130 or 135 to win $100, instead of the usual $110), but the math says it's the correct move. That way if Indy wins by 7, you win instead of push.

As is usually the case, the oddsmakers have done an excellent job for the big game, and I am hard-pressed to pick a side here. I already put the Colts at 21 points, so the question is going to be how many will the Bears score? With everything I've seen I'm going to give them 17 points, which means while I think the Colts will win the game, the Bears are going to cover the spread. I'm going to buy the points to +7.5 just to be safe, but I do think it will be a close game, and in that case the dog should cover. I would advise you to wait to place any bets on Chicago, as usually the late bets that come in are placed on the favorite, so there's a chance you might not have to buy the half-point if you wait long enough.

Now, because it's the Super Bowl, I'll go ahead and give you my thoughts on the over/under for the game. Right now the over/under, meaning the total points scored in the game, is at 47.5 on WagerWeb.com. You've read what I think is going to happen, and if the final is Indy 21, Chicago 17, then we're only looking at a total of 38 points. I obviously like the under on this one. I think this number is way too high, even with the recent Chicago defensive lapses. Even if the Colts score 28 points, that means Chicago has to put up 21, and I just don't see that happening unless the Bears get some defensive or special-teams touchdowns. Anything is possible, of course, but my gut says both defenses are going to be ready and both offenses will struggle with nerves in the first quarter, as it's the first Super Bowl appearance for almost everyone on both sides.

Again, my official picks are CHICAGO +7.5 and the UNDER.

No matter what happens in the game you should enjoy the whole Super Bowl experience, and while having a little money on it adds to the fun, make sure you don't bet over what you can afford to lose. Best of luck on any wagers you make, and I look forward to giving you more good advice next season!

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